Krung Thai Bank Unrated (17TP Bt20.00)
Event Update
Close Bt18.80
Banking
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
June 12, 2017
KTB expects modest impact on operation regarding EARTH’s B/E default issue Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY17
FY18
Consensus EPS (Bt)
2.348
2.593
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
0.9%
0.3%
Reuters / Bloomberg
KTB.BK/KTB TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
13,976.06
Par (Bt)
5.15
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
263.00/7,713.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
25.00/13.06
52 week High / Low (Bt)
21.10/16.20
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
48,340.00 7.39
Estimated free float (%)
44.93
Beta
1.04
URL
www.ktb.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 4 (Certified)
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. Prapharas Nonthapiboon Analyst, no 17836
[email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5872
Events:
Mr. Thanawat Pratoomsuwan, Managing Director of Energy Earth Plc. (EARTH), disclosed that EARTH has defaulted on short‐term B/Es worth Bt90mn, which were offered on a private placement basis, with the maturity dates on 6 Jun and 9 Jun‐17. The firm defaulted because it lacked liquidity and is now in the process of a credit review with financial institutions. In addition to the due B/Es, EARTH disclosed that the firm would also be unable to repay B/Es worth Bt70mn with the maturity date on 15 Jun‐17 as well as another tranche of B/Es worth Bt470mn with the maturity date in Jul‐17 (See Figure 1 below). If EARTH defaults on total debts amounting to Bt500mn (except for accounts payable), the unit holders of two tranches of debentures worth a total of Bt5.5bn with the maturity dates in 2017 and 2019 may decide to redeem the debentures immediately. In a bid to solve the default problem, EARTH is negotiating with creditors to seek an extension of the repayment periods. The firm has also requested special credit lines from commercial banks so it can resume its normal financial transactions as soon as possible. A conclusion on this issue is expected within Aug‐17; in the meantime, the firm’s business will be operated as usual. Mr. Payong Srivanich, President of Krung Thai Bank (KTB), one of EARTH’s creditors, revealed that EARTH has expressed its willingness to solve its short‐term B/E default problem. Provided EARTH is serious about a solution, KTB will be willing to assist it. KTB expects EARTH to completely solve the problem eventually. If the bank needs to set aside an additional provision concerning this case, this will not have a significant impact on the bank’s operation given that the bank still has a solid capital position. The bank will maintain its reserve‐to‐NPL ratio at an appropriate level.
Comments:
Although KTB has admitted that it is one of EARTH’s creditors, the bank did not disclose its exposure related to the EARTH case. Therefore, for now we are unable to assess the exact extent of the impact. However, our 2017 earnings forecasts for KTB already assume quite a high level of extra provision, i.e., at around Bt15bn (75bps), on top of KTB’s normal provision of Bt12bn/year (~60 bps excluding KTC). We believe such an extra provision as well as its excess reserve of Bt23bn (1.18% of loans) as of Mar‐17 should be quite sufficient for any risks in case EARTH’s loan is classified as a special mention loan (the bank has to set aside a provision at 36% of gross loans) or as a bad debt in the future. Nonetheless, in case KTB sets aside an extra provision at a larger extent than we assume, it should be noted that every 10 bps (~Bt2bn before tax) that the extra provision exceeds our estimate will have a negative impact on our 2017E net profit forecast for KTB by 5%. We see EARTH’s B/E default issue potentially posting negative sentiment on the banking sector, especially regarding more market concern over asset quality and higher provisioning risks in the sector. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Provision (Btmn) Net Profit (Btmn) EPS (Bt) EPS Growth (%) Book value (Bt) Dividend (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec PER (X) PBV (X) Div. Yield (%) ROE (%)
2015 30,542 28,492 2.04 ‐14% 17.59 0.76 2015 9.23 1.07 4.04 12%
2016 33,429 32,278 2.31 13% 19.59 0.86 2016 8.14 0.96 4.57 12%
2017E 33,373 33,128 2.37 3% 21.20 0.90 2017E 7.93 0.89 4.79 12%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 3
2018E 33,097 36,347 2.60 10% 23.01 0.90 2018E 7.23 0.82 4.79 12%
2019E 29,701 42,323 3.03 16% 25.18 0.91 2019E 6.21 0.75 4.83 13%
Figure 1: EARTH’s debt maturity within June and July 2017 is summarized as follows
Source: EARTH, KT ZMICO Research
Note: As of 31 March, 2017, EARTH had combined debts amounting to Bt22.8bn as per the details below: 1) As of 31 March, 2017, the group had overdraft facilities and short‐term borrowings from financial institutions amounting to Bt12.7bn, USD 10 million and 60 million Chinese Yuan. The overdraft facilities and short‐term borrowings from financial institutions are secured with deposits from financial institutions, property, investment property, the plant and equipment of the group, and the director and a portion of the director’s shares; 2) Long‐term borrowings from financial institutions amounting to Bt4.2bn (~USD 140 million) are guaranteed by the director and a portion of the director’s shares. 3) Unsecured debentures amounting to Bt5.5bn (consisting of Bt1.5bn to be redeemed on 17 Dec‐2017 and Bt4.0bn to be redeemed on 7 Oct‐2019).
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 3
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, M‐CHAI, POMPUI, TFD, TTL, NMG, SAWAD, RML.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 3
KT ZMICO Securities Company Limited Head Office
WWW.KTZMICO.COM
8th, 15th‐17th,19th, 21st Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok, Thailand 10500 Telephone: (66‐2) 695‐5000 Fax: (66‐2) 695‐5173 KT ZMICO Connect 662 695 5555
Central World Branch
Amarin Branch
22nd Floor, Amarin Building, 496‐502 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 018‐6200 Fax: (66‐2) 018‐6298, (66‐2) 018‐6299
8th Floor, Ton Son Tower, 900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 626‐6000 Fax: (66‐2) 626‐6111
Phaholyothin Branch
Sindhorn Branch
Viphavadee Branch
2nd Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130‐132 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 627‐3550 Fax: (66‐2) 627‐3582, 627‐3600
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg., 333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee‐Rangsit Road, Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900 Telephone: (66‐2) 013‐8600 Fax: (66‐2) 618‐8569
BangKhae Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Pak Chong Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World, 16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Telephone: (66‐2) 264‐5888 Fax: (66‐2) 264 5899
1291/1, Shinnawatra Tower II, 3rd Floor, Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400 Telephone: (66‐2) 686‐1500 Fax: (66‐2) 686‐1666
Ploenchit Branch
518 The Mall Group Building Bangkhae Branch, 6th Floor, Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Telephone: (66‐2) 454‐9979 Fax: (66‐2) 454‐9970
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang, Chiang Mai 50100 Telephone: (053) 270‐072 Fax: (053) 272‐618
173 175, Mittapap Road, Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Telephone: (044) 279‐511 Fax: (044) 279‐574
Korat Branch
Khon Kaen Branch
Chonburi Branch
624/9 Changphuek Road, T.Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel, 260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang, A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000 Telephone: (043) 389‐171‐193 Fax: (043) 389‐209
4th Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg., 870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy, A. Muang, Cholburi 20000 Telephone: (038) 287‐635 Fax: (038) 287‐637
Pattaya Branch
Chachoengsao Branch
Hat Yai Branch
Easy Point 2, 392/65 Moo.9, T.Nong Prue, A. Bang Lamung, Chonburi 20260 Telephone: (038) 420‐965 Fax: (038) 420‐968
108/34‐36 Mahajakkrapad Road, T.Namuang, A.Muang, Chachoengsao 24000 Telephone: (038) 813‐088 Fax: (038) 813‐099
200/301, 200/303 JULDIS HATYAI PLAZA Floor 3 , Niphat‐Uthit 3 Rd, Hatyai Songkhla 90110 Telephone: (074) 355530‐3 Fax: (074) 355534
Phuket Branch
22/61‐63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road, Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket, Phuket 83000 Telephone: (076) 222‐811, (076) 222‐683 Fax: (076) 222‐861
Phitsanulok Branch
227/171 Borom Trilokkanat Road, Muang, Phitsanulok 65000 Telephone: 055‐219‐255 to 8 Fax: 055‐219‐259
Nakhon Pathom
Cyber Branch Ayutthaya
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
Cyber Branch Chiangrai
KrungThai Bank, Rojana Branch 253 Moo 5, Rojana Road, Phai Ling, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phra Nakhonsi Ayutthaya, 13000 Telephone: 035‐242‐477 Fax: 035‐242‐476
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd., Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District , Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083‐490‐2871
River Hotel (Building 3rd),1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
KrungThai Bank, Hayaek Phokhun Mengrai Branch 116/19 Moo 19, Highway 110 Road, Rop Wiang, Mueang Chiang Rai, Chiang Rai, 57000 Telephone: 053‐715‐067 Fax: 053‐715‐068