Krung Thai Bank
Krung Thai Bank Unrated (15TP Bt29.00)
Company Update
Price Bt22.10
Banking
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
January 6, 2015
Likely unexciting 4Q14E earnings
FY14
FY15
Consensus EPS (Bt)
2.391 3.7%
2.681 7.8%
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data Reuters / Bloomberg
KTB.BK/KTB TB
Beta
13,976.06 5.15 309.00/9,372.00 25.00/18.12 24.50/15.30 45,825.00 5.21 44.93 1.18
URL
http://www.ktb.co.th
Paid‐up Shares (m) Par (Bt) Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m) Foreign limit / actual (%) 52 week High / Low (Bt) Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%) Estimated free float (%)
CGR 2013
Remaining the prime beneficiary of economic recovery We retain our positive stance on KTB although we see some downside risk to our earnings estimates for 2015‐16E. We still like KTB on the bank being the prime beneficiary of the ongoing economic growth, the continued strengthening of its financial positions, and its inexpensive valuations with 2015E P/BV of 1.2x vs. the average of 1.5x and 1.3x for Thai and regional bank peers respectively. Expect 4Q14E net profit (NP) of Bt9.5bn (‐3% YoY, +3% QoQ) This estimate is based on the assumption that the bank will set a normal provision (~Bt2.2bn) in 4Q14E as per the president’s latest statement. Meanwhile, the bank hints that its NPLs in 4Q14E have been manageable and quite stable QoQ after a continued increase during 9M14. 2015 guidance still highlights comfortable operating environment The bank president’s preliminary business guidance still implies a comfortable operating environment for 2015E, which should result in better profitability and asset quality outlooks for 2015E, thanks partly to its transformation plan. Potential downside risk to our earnings forecasts for 2015‐16E We see some downside risk for the 15‐16E NP forecasts, mainly on the potential of 1) lower‐than‐expected fee income; 2) lower NIM, mainly on the large influx of deposits during 4Q14; and 3) slightly lower loan growth. We will revisit our earnings forecasts after the bank gives its business guidance for 2015E later this month. Financial and Valuation
Note: KT•ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO
FY Ended 31 Dec
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
2016E
PPOP (Btm)
38,178
43,652
46,327
51,595
57,565
Provision (Btm)
15,163
12,284
12,165
11,592
11,803
Net Profit (Btm)
23,366
33,928
34,684
40,403
46,163
1.67
2.43
2.48
2.89
3.30
EPS Growth (%)
9.8%
45.2%
2.2%
16.5%
14.3%
Book value (Bt)
12.90
14.74
13.95
18.40
20.63
0.75
0.88
0.94
1.08
1.16 2016E
EPS (Bt)
Prapharas Nonthapiboon
Dividend (Bt)
Analyst, no 17836
FY Ended 31 Dec
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
[email protected]
PER (X)
13.22
9.11
8.91
7.65
6.69
66 (0) 2695‐5872
PBV (X)
1.71
1.50
1.58
1.20
1.07
Div. Yield (%) ROE (%)
3.39 15%
3.98 18%
4.27 16%
4.69 17%
5.00 17%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
Expect 4Q14E net profit of Bt9.5bn (‐3% YoY, +3% QoQ) We expect KTB’s 4Q14E net profit (NP) at Bt9.5bn (‐3% YoY and +3% QoQ). This based on the assumption that the bank will set a normalized provision (~Bt2.2bn) in 4Q14E as per the latest statement of the bank’s president (Vorapak Tanyawong). However, in the case that the bank decides to set an extra provision, every Bt1.0bn would reduce the bank’s NP for 4Q14E by ~Bt800mn and the NP for 2014E by around 2%. Based on our NP estimate for 4Q14E, the bank’s net profit for 2014E would stand at Bt34.7bn (+2% YoY) vs. our previous forecast of Bt35.3bn (+4% YoY). The slight increase in its NP QoQ should come mainly from 1) higher fee income QoQ on seasonality; and 2) the likelihood of robust loan growth of ~4% QoQ, partly driven by loans from the government sector. However, NIM for 4Q14E is likely to drop QoQ due to a huge influx of deposits (>Bt200bn) during 4Q14E, which resulted from several attractive deposit campaigns in the period. Meanwhile, the bank hints that its NPLs for 4Q14E have been manageable and quite stable QoQ after a continued increase during 9M14. This is due to its more efficient risk management system, thanks largely to the bank’s transformation process, especially the implementation of the Loan Factory system. Figure 1: 4Q14E earnings forecast Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) Fiscal Year-Ended Dec.
4Q13
3Q14
4Q14E % YoY % QoQ
2014E
% YoY
Net Interest Income
16,774
17,489
17,961
7%
3%
69,795
9%
Non Interest Income
7,079
6,884
7,297
3%
6%
27,931
-2%
Operating Income
23,853
24,374
25,258
6%
4%
97,726
6%
Operating Expenses
11,333
10,314
11,257
-1%
9%
43,355
8%
Operating Profit
6,013
12,324
6,013
0%
-51%
47,474
8%
Provision (Reversal)
3,110
2,824
2,200
-29%
-22%
12,165
-1%
Tax expenses (Reversal)
2,388
1,980
2,289
-4%
16%
7,603
-3%
Extraordinary
3,000
-
-
Net Profit
9,837
9,255
9,511
-3%
10,175
12,068
11,671
0.70
0.66
0.68
4Q13
3Q14
4Q14E
55,026
67,467
N.A.
PPOP-after tax EPS (Bt) Key Statistics & Ratios Gross NPLs (Btmn) Gross NPLs/Loans
-
NM
3%
34,684
2%
15%
-3%
46,327
6%
-3%
3%
2.48
2%
2014E 68,015
2.6%
3.1%
N.A.
3.0%
112.3%
107.9%
N.A.
108.5%
Tier I to Risk Assets
10.2%
11.2%
N.A.
10.9%
C apital Adequacy Ratio
14.8%
15.9%
N.A.
15.2%
Loan to Deposit Ratio
90.8%
94.6%
87.2%
87.2%
Loan to Deposits & Borrowings
84.8%
88.5%
82.3%
82.3%
Provision to loans
0.73%
0.63%
0.47%
0.71%
Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs
C ost to Income
47.5%
42.3%
44.6%
44.4%
Non Interest Inc./Total Inc.
29.7%
28.2%
28.9%
28.6%
Net Interest Margin
2.83%
2.86%
2.76%
2.81%
Tax rate
19.2%
17.6%
19.4%
18.0%
Loan growth -YoY
12.2%
7.2%
10.0%
10.0%
1.8%
-0.5%
4.5%
Loan growth -QoQ
Source: Bloomberg and KTZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Preliminary 2015 guidance highlights comfortable operating environment In his message to the press late last year, the bank’s president (Vorapak Tanyawong) highlighted the key business targets for 2015E, comprised of: 1) targeting loan growth of >6% or at around 1.5x to GDP growth (3.5‐4.5%); 2) continuing to push the transformation plan in order to help boost work efficiency and profitability; and 3) expecting its asset quality to improve, which should result in a lower extra provision going forward. Note that the bank’s main loan growth drivers and focus should continue to be the retail and SME segments, while it will maintain its leading position and market share in government and corporate lending. Potential downside risk to our earnings forecasts for 2015‐16E We see some downside risk for the 15‐16E NP forecasts, mainly on the potential of 1) lower‐ than‐expected fee income; 2) lower NIM, mainly on the large influx of deposits during 4Q14; and 3) lower loan growth vs. our current forecasts of +12% for both 2015‐2016E. We will revisit our earnings forecasts after the bank gives its business guidance for 2015E, likely later this month after the announcement of the 2014E results. Figure 2: KTB's P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels (X) 2.0
2014E
PBV (x) Implied market price Upside/ Downside (Bt)
to current price (%)
1.8
29
33
1.6
27
21
+1.0SD
1.5
24
9
+0.5SD
1.3
22
-2
-1.5 S.D.
Average
1.1
19
-14
-2 S.D.
-0.5SD
1.0
16
-26
-1.0SD
0.8
14
-38
-1.5SD
0.7
11
-50
-2.0SD
0.5
8
-62
+2 S.D.
1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2
+1.5 S.D. +1 S.D.
+2.0SD
+0.5 S.D. Avg.
+1.5SD
-0.5 S.D. -1 S.D.
1.0 0.8 0.6
Jul-14
Dec-14
Feb-14
Apr-13
Sep-13
Nov-12
Jan-12
Jun-12
Aug-11
Oct-10
Mar-11
May-10
Jul-09
Dec-09
Feb-09
Apr-08
Nov-07
Jan-07
Jun-07
0.2
Sep-08
0.4
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 3: KTB's PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels (X) 25
2014E
20 15 10 5
+2 S.D. +1.5 S.D. +1 S.D. +0.5 S.D. Avg. -0.5 S.D. -1 S.D. -1.5 S.D. -2 S.D.
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-07
0
PER (x) Implied market price
Upside/ Downside
(Bt)
to current price (%)
+2.0SD
17.7
44
99
+1.5SD
15.8
39
77
+1.0SD
13.8
34
55
+0.5SD
11.8
29
33
Average
9.8
24
10
-0.5SD
7.9
20
-12
-1.0SD
5.9
15
-34
-1.5SD
3.9
10
-56
-2.0SD
2.0
5
-78
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market return over six months period because of specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to below market return over six months period because of specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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th
th
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Company Update
Price Bt22.10
Banking
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
January 6, 2015
Likely unexciting 4Q14E earnings
FY14
FY15
Consensus EPS (Bt)
2.391 3.7%
2.681 7.8%
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data Reuters / Bloomberg
KTB.BK/KTB TB
Beta
13,976.06 5.15 309.00/9,372.00 25.00/18.12 24.50/15.30 45,825.00 5.21 44.93 1.18
URL
http://www.ktb.co.th
Paid‐up Shares (m) Par (Bt) Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m) Foreign limit / actual (%) 52 week High / Low (Bt) Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%) Estimated free float (%)
CGR 2013
Remaining the prime beneficiary of economic recovery We retain our positive stance on KTB although we see some downside risk to our earnings estimates for 2015‐16E. We still like KTB on the bank being the prime beneficiary of the ongoing economic growth, the continued strengthening of its financial positions, and its inexpensive valuations with 2015E P/BV of 1.2x vs. the average of 1.5x and 1.3x for Thai and regional bank peers respectively. Expect 4Q14E net profit (NP) of Bt9.5bn (‐3% YoY, +3% QoQ) This estimate is based on the assumption that the bank will set a normal provision (~Bt2.2bn) in 4Q14E as per the president’s latest statement. Meanwhile, the bank hints that its NPLs in 4Q14E have been manageable and quite stable QoQ after a continued increase during 9M14. 2015 guidance still highlights comfortable operating environment The bank president’s preliminary business guidance still implies a comfortable operating environment for 2015E, which should result in better profitability and asset quality outlooks for 2015E, thanks partly to its transformation plan. Potential downside risk to our earnings forecasts for 2015‐16E We see some downside risk for the 15‐16E NP forecasts, mainly on the potential of 1) lower‐than‐expected fee income; 2) lower NIM, mainly on the large influx of deposits during 4Q14; and 3) slightly lower loan growth. We will revisit our earnings forecasts after the bank gives its business guidance for 2015E later this month. Financial and Valuation
Note: KT•ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO
FY Ended 31 Dec
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
2016E
PPOP (Btm)
38,178
43,652
46,327
51,595
57,565
Provision (Btm)
15,163
12,284
12,165
11,592
11,803
Net Profit (Btm)
23,366
33,928
34,684
40,403
46,163
1.67
2.43
2.48
2.89
3.30
EPS Growth (%)
9.8%
45.2%
2.2%
16.5%
14.3%
Book value (Bt)
12.90
14.74
13.95
18.40
20.63
0.75
0.88
0.94
1.08
1.16 2016E
EPS (Bt)
Prapharas Nonthapiboon
Dividend (Bt)
Analyst, no 17836
FY Ended 31 Dec
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
[email protected]
PER (X)
13.22
9.11
8.91
7.65
6.69
66 (0) 2695‐5872
PBV (X)
1.71
1.50
1.58
1.20
1.07
Div. Yield (%) ROE (%)
3.39 15%
3.98 18%
4.27 16%
4.69 17%
5.00 17%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
Expect 4Q14E net profit of Bt9.5bn (‐3% YoY, +3% QoQ) We expect KTB’s 4Q14E net profit (NP) at Bt9.5bn (‐3% YoY and +3% QoQ). This based on the assumption that the bank will set a normalized provision (~Bt2.2bn) in 4Q14E as per the latest statement of the bank’s president (Vorapak Tanyawong). However, in the case that the bank decides to set an extra provision, every Bt1.0bn would reduce the bank’s NP for 4Q14E by ~Bt800mn and the NP for 2014E by around 2%. Based on our NP estimate for 4Q14E, the bank’s net profit for 2014E would stand at Bt34.7bn (+2% YoY) vs. our previous forecast of Bt35.3bn (+4% YoY). The slight increase in its NP QoQ should come mainly from 1) higher fee income QoQ on seasonality; and 2) the likelihood of robust loan growth of ~4% QoQ, partly driven by loans from the government sector. However, NIM for 4Q14E is likely to drop QoQ due to a huge influx of deposits (>Bt200bn) during 4Q14E, which resulted from several attractive deposit campaigns in the period. Meanwhile, the bank hints that its NPLs for 4Q14E have been manageable and quite stable QoQ after a continued increase during 9M14. This is due to its more efficient risk management system, thanks largely to the bank’s transformation process, especially the implementation of the Loan Factory system. Figure 1: 4Q14E earnings forecast Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) Fiscal Year-Ended Dec.
4Q13
3Q14
4Q14E % YoY % QoQ
2014E
% YoY
Net Interest Income
16,774
17,489
17,961
7%
3%
69,795
9%
Non Interest Income
7,079
6,884
7,297
3%
6%
27,931
-2%
Operating Income
23,853
24,374
25,258
6%
4%
97,726
6%
Operating Expenses
11,333
10,314
11,257
-1%
9%
43,355
8%
Operating Profit
6,013
12,324
6,013
0%
-51%
47,474
8%
Provision (Reversal)
3,110
2,824
2,200
-29%
-22%
12,165
-1%
Tax expenses (Reversal)
2,388
1,980
2,289
-4%
16%
7,603
-3%
Extraordinary
3,000
-
-
Net Profit
9,837
9,255
9,511
-3%
10,175
12,068
11,671
0.70
0.66
0.68
4Q13
3Q14
4Q14E
55,026
67,467
N.A.
PPOP-after tax EPS (Bt) Key Statistics & Ratios Gross NPLs (Btmn) Gross NPLs/Loans
-
NM
3%
34,684
2%
15%
-3%
46,327
6%
-3%
3%
2.48
2%
2014E 68,015
2.6%
3.1%
N.A.
3.0%
112.3%
107.9%
N.A.
108.5%
Tier I to Risk Assets
10.2%
11.2%
N.A.
10.9%
C apital Adequacy Ratio
14.8%
15.9%
N.A.
15.2%
Loan to Deposit Ratio
90.8%
94.6%
87.2%
87.2%
Loan to Deposits & Borrowings
84.8%
88.5%
82.3%
82.3%
Provision to loans
0.73%
0.63%
0.47%
0.71%
Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs
C ost to Income
47.5%
42.3%
44.6%
44.4%
Non Interest Inc./Total Inc.
29.7%
28.2%
28.9%
28.6%
Net Interest Margin
2.83%
2.86%
2.76%
2.81%
Tax rate
19.2%
17.6%
19.4%
18.0%
Loan growth -YoY
12.2%
7.2%
10.0%
10.0%
1.8%
-0.5%
4.5%
Loan growth -QoQ
Source: Bloomberg and KTZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Preliminary 2015 guidance highlights comfortable operating environment In his message to the press late last year, the bank’s president (Vorapak Tanyawong) highlighted the key business targets for 2015E, comprised of: 1) targeting loan growth of >6% or at around 1.5x to GDP growth (3.5‐4.5%); 2) continuing to push the transformation plan in order to help boost work efficiency and profitability; and 3) expecting its asset quality to improve, which should result in a lower extra provision going forward. Note that the bank’s main loan growth drivers and focus should continue to be the retail and SME segments, while it will maintain its leading position and market share in government and corporate lending. Potential downside risk to our earnings forecasts for 2015‐16E We see some downside risk for the 15‐16E NP forecasts, mainly on the potential of 1) lower‐ than‐expected fee income; 2) lower NIM, mainly on the large influx of deposits during 4Q14; and 3) lower loan growth vs. our current forecasts of +12% for both 2015‐2016E. We will revisit our earnings forecasts after the bank gives its business guidance for 2015E, likely later this month after the announcement of the 2014E results. Figure 2: KTB's P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels (X) 2.0
2014E
PBV (x) Implied market price Upside/ Downside (Bt)
to current price (%)
1.8
29
33
1.6
27
21
+1.0SD
1.5
24
9
+0.5SD
1.3
22
-2
-1.5 S.D.
Average
1.1
19
-14
-2 S.D.
-0.5SD
1.0
16
-26
-1.0SD
0.8
14
-38
-1.5SD
0.7
11
-50
-2.0SD
0.5
8
-62
+2 S.D.
1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2
+1.5 S.D. +1 S.D.
+2.0SD
+0.5 S.D. Avg.
+1.5SD
-0.5 S.D. -1 S.D.
1.0 0.8 0.6
Jul-14
Dec-14
Feb-14
Apr-13
Sep-13
Nov-12
Jan-12
Jun-12
Aug-11
Oct-10
Mar-11
May-10
Jul-09
Dec-09
Feb-09
Apr-08
Nov-07
Jan-07
Jun-07
0.2
Sep-08
0.4
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 3: KTB's PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels (X) 25
2014E
20 15 10 5
+2 S.D. +1.5 S.D. +1 S.D. +0.5 S.D. Avg. -0.5 S.D. -1 S.D. -1.5 S.D. -2 S.D.
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-07
0
PER (x) Implied market price
Upside/ Downside
(Bt)
to current price (%)
+2.0SD
17.7
44
99
+1.5SD
15.8
39
77
+1.0SD
13.8
34
55
+0.5SD
11.8
29
33
Average
9.8
24
10
-0.5SD
7.9
20
-12
-1.0SD
5.9
15
-34
-1.5SD
3.9
10
-56
-2.0SD
2.0
5
-78
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market return over six months period because of specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to below market return over six months period because of specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
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nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
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Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
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Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
