Krung Thai Bank
Krung Thai Bank Unrated (16E TP Bt21.00)
Company Update
Close Bt17.20
Banking
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
September 28, 2015
Ready to move ahead after easing of overhanging concern on SSI case Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY15
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
2.118
2.352
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
1.5%
‐0.1%
Reuters / Bloomberg
KTB.BK/KTB TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
13,976.06
Par (Bt)
5.15
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
240.00/6,650.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
25.00/14.65
52 week High / Low (Bt)
24.40/16.60
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
51,613.00 4.65
Estimated free float (%)
44.93
Beta
1.13
URL
www.ktb.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 4 (Certified)
Note: KT•ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO
Roll over to use 16E target price We view that the bank’s action taken on the SSI case should ease the long overhanging concern. Going forward, we view that KTB’s solid core earnings should help to reduce the impact of a potential high provisioning level. Moreover, we expect the ongoing series of economic stimulus packages to partly help boost confidence and economic activities, and we see KTB being one of the prime gainers from the modest economic recovery. The bank’s inexpensive valuation with 2016E P/BV of 1.0x and a sound dividend yield of ~5% are other appeals. Action on SSI case should ease the overhanging concern KTB has total lending exposure to the SSI Group at ~Bt23bn. KTB will utilize its general reserve of ~Bt9bn to cope with the new reserve requirement for the SSI case. KTB’s NPL ratio will increase by ~1% to ~3.9% in 3Q15, while the NPL coverage ratio will drop to ~92% from 125% in 2Q15. However, the bank decided to set an extra provision of Bt6bn in 3Q15 on top of its normal level of ~Bt2.1bn in order to bring its reserve level to above 100%. Trim net profit estimates for 15‐16E by 3‐5% Our earnings revision was primarily to fine‐tune with the bank’s move on the SSI case as well as the latest weaker operating environment. Following our NP revision coupled with rolling over to use the 2016E target price, our 16 target price stands at Bt21/share. Expect 3Q15E net profit of Bt6.0bn (‐35% YoY and ‐29% QoQ) The drop in net profit is due to the fact that KTB will have to set an extra provision of Bt6bn as mentioned earlier. Meanwhile, loan growth should remain weak (+~1‐2% YTD) and NIM should be lower QoQ due to the rate cut impact. However, non‐interest income should remain the bright spot with solid growth of above 10% YoY. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
PPOP (Btmn)
44,262
52,032
55,249
56,149
61,008
Provision (Btmn)
12,311
18,643
25,547
23,013
22,385
Net Profit (Btmn)
34,511
33,191
30,019
32,624
37,940
2.47
2.37
2.15
2.33
2.71
EPS Growth (%)
47.7%
‐3.8%
‐9.6%
8.7%
16.3%
Book value (Bt)
14.74
16.60
17.89
19.38
21.24
EPS (Bt)
Dividend (Bt)
0.88
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.95
FY Ended 31 Dec
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
PER (X)
6.97
7.25
8.01
7.37
6.34
Prapharas Nonthapiboon
PBV (X)
1.17
1.04
0.96
0.89
0.81
Analyst, no 17836
Div. Yield (%) ROE (%)
5.12 17.9%
5.23 15.1%
5.23 12.4%
5.23 12.5%
5.52 13.4%
[email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5872
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 7
Summary of lending to the SSI Group KTB has total lending exposure to the SSI Group at ~Bt23bn (likely around 50% each for SSI UK and SSI Thailand). Note that loans to the SSI Group will be classified as NPLs in 3Q15 but KTB has not decided yet whether to write off the UK loans. As per the BoT’s latest requirement, banks with exposure to SSI UK have to set provision expenses at 100% of gross loans (vs. 58% of gross loans as of 2Q15 based on the forced sale value of collateral) as the collateral value of SSI UK will be set at zero value. Meanwhile, the required reserve for SSI Thailand will be slightly lower as it will be set at 100% of loans net of the discounted collateral value, which is equivalent to ~30% of gross loans (vs. 36% of gross loans set previously). Factoring in the SSI case, KTB will utilize its general reserve (in the balance sheet side) of ~Bt9bn to cope with the new reserve requirement for the SSI case. Moreover, KTB’s NPL ratio will increase by ~1% to around 3.9% in 3Q15 from 2.96% as of 2Q15, while the NPL coverage ratio will drop to ~92% from 125% in 2Q15. However, due to the lower NPL coverage ratio, the bank decided to set an extra provision again of Bt6bn in 3Q15 (vs. the extra provision of Bt3.6bn already made in 2Q15) on top of the bank’s normalized provision of ~Bt2.1bn in order to bring its reserve level to above 100%. We view that the actions taken on the SSI loans (especially the 100% provision on SSI UK loans) will be positive for the longer term, as it will remove the market’s overhanging concern. Relating to the provisioning guidance going forward, KTB indicated that the bank is quite comfortable with its NPL coverage ratio of above 100% (after the SSI case). It will gradually build up its reserve position over the long term, not in the near term, as the bank also has to balance between its earnings outlook and balance sheet strength. However, we still expect KTB to set some extra provision as usual on top of the bank’s normalized provision of Bt8.4bn per year. Trim net profit estimates for 15‐16E by 3‐5% We trim our net profit (NP) forecasts for KTB by 3‐5% for 2015‐16E, primarily to fine‐tune with the bank’s action on the SSI case as well as the latest weaker operating environment. Our main revisions are a higher provision on the additional extra provision mentioned earlier and lower growth in loan and fee income (see Figure 1). Following our NP revision coupled with rolling over to use the 2016E target price, our 16 target price stands at Bt21/share, for an implied target P/BV of 1.1x (from the 15E target price of Bt20/share previously). Our target price was derived from the Gordon growth model and based on long‐term sustainable ROE of 14% and an L‐T growth rate of 10%. Figure 1: Key changes in our earnings revision 2015E Net profit (Btmn) NP change from previous (%) NP Growth YoY (%) Loan growth Net fee income growth (%) NIM (%) Cost to income ratio (%) Provision for loan loss (Btmn) Provision for loan loss (% of loans) Tax rate Source: KT ZMICO Research
New 30,019 ‐3% ‐10% 3% 13% 3.06% 44.5% 25,547 1.27% 18%
2016E Previous 30,956 ‐7% 5% 15% 2.95% 45.2% 23,071 1.13% 18%
New 32,624 ‐5% 9% 4% 13% 3.09% 45.1% 23,013 1.10% 19%
Previous 34,471 11% 6% 14% 3.01% 45.8% 21,739 1.00% 19%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 7
Expect 3Q15E net profit of Bt6.0bn (‐35% YoY and ‐29% QoQ) The drop in net profit is due to the fact that KTB will have to set an extra provision of Bt6bn as mentioned earlier. Meanwhile, loan growth should remain weak (+~1‐2% YTD) and NIM should drop YoY and QoQ due to the rate cut impact. However, non‐interest income should remain the bright spot with solid growth likely in the mid‐teens YoY, thanks partly to the ongoing improvement of the bank’s fee‐based income after completion of the transformation program early this year. Figure 2: 3Q15 earnings preview Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) Fiscal Year-Ended Dec.
3Q14
2Q15
3Q15E % YoY % QoQ
9M14
9M15E
% YoY
2015E % YoY % 9M to 15E
Net Interest Income
20,033
20,895
20,459
2%
-2% 59,197
60,693
3%
81,214
2%
Non Interest Income
7,050
8,728
8,480
20%
-3% 21,305
24,957
17%
32,701
14%
76%
Operating Income
27,083
29,624
28,939
7%
-2% 80,502
85,650
6%
113,915
5%
75%
Operating Expenses
11,480
12,166
11,593
1%
-5% 35,416
36,925
4%
50,653
5%
73%
Provision (Reversal)
3,984
7,515
9,750
145%
30% 13,586
20,990
54%
25,547
37%
82%
Tax expenses (Reversal)
2,110
1,259
1,367
-35%
5,656
4,604
-19%
6,713
-7%
69%
Net Profit
9,255
8,449
6,009
-35%
-29% 25,172
22,387
-11%
30,019
-10%
75%
13,338
15,871
15,379
15%
-3% 39,010
42,791
10%
55,249
6%
77%
0.66
0.60
0.43
-35%
1.60
-11%
2.15
-10%
75%
3Q14
2Q15
3Q15E
9M14
9M15E
68,858
67,551
91,451
68,858
91,451
3.07%
3.95%
3.49%
112.6% 101.1%
100.7%
PPOP-after tax EPS (Bt) Key Statistics & Ratios Gross NPLs (Btmn) Gross NPLs/Loans Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs
3.07%
2.96%
3.95%
112.6%
125.2%
101.1%
9%
-29%
1.80
2015E 81,666
Tier I to Risk Assets
11.2%
10.6%
11.2%
11.2%
11.2%
11.8%
C apital Adequacy Ratio
15.9%
14.4%
15.9%
15.9%
15.9%
14.7%
Loan to Deposit Ratio
97.4%
95.0%
95.4%
97.4%
95.4%
95.9%
Loan to Deposits & Borrowings
89.5%
90.4%
90.3%
89.5%
90.3%
90.0%
Provision to loans
0.86%
1.52%
1.97%
0.98%
1.42%
1.27% 44.5%
C ost to Income
42.4%
41.1%
40.1%
44.0%
43.1%
Non Interest Inc./Total Inc.
26.0%
29.5%
29.3%
26.5%
29.1%
28.7%
Net Interest Margin
3.21%
3.10%
3.08%
3.18%
3.01%
3.06%
Tax rate
18.2%
12.7%
18.0%
17.9% 16.09%
17.8%
Loan growth -YoY
10.2%
6.4%
6.6%
10.2%
6.6%
Loan growth -QoQ
-0.4%
1.3%
-0.3%
-0.4%
-0.3%
3.0%
Source: KTZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 7
75%
Figure 3: KTB's P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels (X) 2.0
2015E
PBV (x) Implied market
+2 S.D.
1.8
+1.5 S.D. +1 S.D.
Upside/ Downside
price (Bt)
to current price (%)
+2.0SD
1.8
32
75
+1.5SD
1.6
29
59
+1.0SD
1.5
26
44
-1 S.D.
+0.5SD
1.3
23
29
-1.5 S.D.
Average
1.1
21
13
0.4
-0.5SD
1.0
18
-2
0.2
-1.0SD
0.8
15
-17
-1.5SD
0.7
12
-32
-2.0SD
0.5
9
-48
1.6 1.4
+0.5 S.D. Av g. -0.5 S.D.
1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6
Mar-15
Aug-15
Apr-14
Sep-14
Nov-13
Jan-13
Jun-13
Feb-12
Aug-12
Apr-11
Sep-11
Jun-10
Nov-10
Jul-09
Jan-10
Feb-09
Apr-08
Sep-08
Nov-07
Jan-07
Jun-07
-2 S.D.
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 4: KTB's PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels (X) 25
2015E
20
Mar-15
Aug-15
Sep-14
Apr-14
Nov-13
Jan-13
Jun-13
Feb-12
Aug-12
Apr-11
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Sep-11
Jun-10
Nov-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Feb-09
Jan-07
Jun-07
0
Sep-08
5
Apr-08
10
+1.5 S.D. +1 S.D. +0.5 S.D. Av g. -0.5 S.D. -1 S.D. -1.5 S.D. -2 S.D.
Nov-07
15
+2 S.D.
PER (x) Implied market
Upside/ Downside
price (Bt)
to current price (%)
+2.0SD
17.5
37
107
+1.5SD
15.6
33
85
+1.0SD
13.7
29
62
+0.5SD
11.8
25
40
Average
9.9
21
17
-0.5SD
8.0
17
-6
-1.0SD
6.1
13
-28
-1.5SD
4.2
9
-51
-2.0SD
2.3
5
-73
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 7
Statement of Comprehensive Income (Btmn) Year‐end 31 Dec Total Interest Income Total Interest Expenses Net Interest Income Fee and Service income Gain on exchange Other Income Total Non‐Interest Income Operating Income Personnel Expenses Premises & Equipment Exp. Other Expenses Total Operating Expenses Operating Profit Extraordinary Item Provision for Loan Losses Taxation Minority Interests Net Profit PPOP PPP EPS (Bt)
2013 111,403 46,921 64,481 15,712 4,581 7,263 27,556 92,037 22,785 7,444
2014 130,466 51,072 79,394 16,383 4,827 7,447 28,657 108,051 26,067 8,888
2015E 134,303 53,089 81,214 18,490 5,309 8,902 32,701 113,915 27,292 9,155
2016E 138,155 54,925 83,230 20,922 5,097 8,605 34,624 117,854 28,930 9,246
2017E 152,377 63,598 88,779 23,579 5,352 9,181 38,111 126,890 30,665 9,431
9,357 39,586 52,185 2,294 12,311 7,923 ‐ 34,511 44,262 46,822 2.47
13,191 48,146 59,216 ‐ 18,643 7,184 (887) 33,191 52,032 51,834 2.37
14,206 50,653 61,963 ‐ 25,547 6,713 (984) 30,019 55,249 55,565 2.15
15,015 53,191 64,063 ‐ 23,013 7,914 (1,112) 32,624 56,149 55,637 2.33
15,685 55,781 70,509 ‐ 22,385 9,501 (1,282) 37,940 61,008 60,325 2.71
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
51,149 448,818 ‐ 238,773 1,762,298 4,647 1,766,945 (66,300) 1,700,645 30,661 27,243 56,509 2,553,799
74,770 456,721 ‐ 258,495 1,952,996 5,191 1,958,187 (76,021) 1,882,166 30,733 28,116 58,141 2,789,143
56,077 342,541 ‐ 293,897 2,011,537 3,218 2,014,756 (82,267) 1,932,489 30,119 28,959 73,607 2,757,688
56,638 337,403 ‐ 302,572 2,092,068 3,452 2,095,520 (98,680) 1,996,840 29,215 29,828 79,508 2,832,004
57,205 303,662 ‐ 317,267 2,238,484 3,917 2,242,401 (113,915) 2,128,486 28,339 30,126 81,620 2,946,705
1,882,863 206,189 167,209
2,151,268 167,215 146,971
2,097,487 175,576 137,971
2,139,436 172,064 147,971
2,216,456 177,226 148,971
88,350 2,344,611
87,822 2,553,276
92,468 2,503,501
97,373 2,556,844
102,550 2,645,203
72,005 20,834 99,312 ‐ 13,940 206,091
72,005 20,834 119,660 ‐ 19,644 232,142
72,005 20,834 136,495 ‐ 20,866 250,200
72,005 20,834 155,936 ‐ 22,119 270,894
72,005 20,834 180,693 ‐ 23,405 296,937
Statement of Financial Position (Btmn) Year‐end 31 Dec Assets Cash Interbank & Money Market REPO Net Investment in Securities Loans Accrued Interest Receivables Loans & Accrued Int.Rec. Less: Loan Loss Reserves Net Loans and Receivables Properties Foreclosed Premises and Equipment, Net Other Assets Total Assets Liabilities & Equity Total Deposits Interbank & Money Market Total Borrowings Other Liabilities Total Liabilities Paid‐up Capital (Bt5.15 Par) Premium on Share Capital Retained Earnings Unrealized Loss on LT Securities Other Equity Items Total Shareholders' Equity Source: KTZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 5 of 7
Key Statistics and Ratios Year‐end 31 Dec Per share Data (Bt) EPS DPS BVPS
2013
2014
2.47 0.88 14.74
2.37 0.90 16.60
2.15 0.90 17.89
2.33 0.90 19.38
2.71 0.95 21.24
Valuation analysis PER (X) P/BV (X) Dividend yield (%)
6.97 1.17 5.12
7.25 1.04 5.23
8.01 0.96 5.23
7.37 0.89 5.23
6.34 0.81 5.52
Growth (%) Net Profit EPS Net Interest Income Non Interest Income
47.7% 47.7% 10.1% 18.1%
‐3.8% ‐3.8% 23.1% 4.0%
‐9.6% ‐9.6% 2.3% 14.1%
8.7% 8.7% 2.5% 5.9%
16.3% 16.3% 6.7% 10.1%
Net Fee & Service Income Operating Income Operating Expenses Operating Profit PPOP PPP Loans ‐ Net Deposits Gross NPLs
18.9% 12.4% 12.0% 12.9% 15.9% 21.5% 15.5% 13.0% ‐5.0%
4.3% 17.4% 21.6% 13.5% 17.6% 10.7% 10.8% 14.3% 1.6%
12.9% 5.4% 5.2% 4.6% 6.2% 7.2% 3.0% ‐2.5% 42.1%
13.2% 3.5% 5.0% 3.4% 1.6% 0.1% 4.0% 2.0% 5.1%
12.7% 7.7% 4.9% 10.1% 8.7% 8.4% 7.0% 3.6% ‐0.2%
Asset Quality Ratio Gross NPLs (Btmn) Gross NPLs/Loans Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs Accrued Interest/Loans Loan Loss Reserve/Loans Property Foreclosed/Loans
Loan to Deposit Ratio Loan to Deposit and Borrowing Ratio Profitability Ratio ROA ROE Cost to Income Non Interest Income/Total Income
Key Assumptions Loan Growth ‐ Net Cost to Income Net Interest Margin (NIM) Provision expenses (Btmn) Provision (% of loans) Source: KTZMICO Research
2016E
2017E
56,560 57,489 81,666 85,793 85,622 2.6% 2.4% 3.5% 3.6% 3.4% 117.2% 132.2% 100.7% 115.0% 133.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 3.8% 3.9% 4.1% 4.7% 5.1% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3%
Capital & Liquidity Ratio Equity/Asset Tier I to Risk Assets Capital Adequacy Ratio
Net Interest Margin (NIM)
2015E
8.1% 10.2% 14.8% 93.6% 86.0%
8.3% 10.9% 14.8% 90.8% 85.0%
9.1% 11.8% 14.7% 95.9% 90.0%
9.6% 12.4% 15.0% 97.8% 91.5%
10.1% 13.0% 15.3% 101.0% 94.6%
1.4% 17.9% 43.0% 29.9% 2.80%
1.2% 15.1% 44.6% 26.5% 3.10%
1.1% 12.4% 44.5% 28.7% 3.06%
1.2% 12.5% 45.1% 29.4% 3.09%
1.3% 13.4% 44.0% 30.0% 3.18%
2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 15.5% 10.8% 3.0% 4.0% 7.0% 43.0% 44.6% 44.5% 45.1% 44.0% 2.80% 3.10% 3.06% 3.09% 3.18% 12,311 18,643 25,547 23,013 22,385 0.70% 0.95% 1.27% 1.10% 1.00%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 6 of 7
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, KBS, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, CPI . KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, PLE, SAFARI, PACE, TPOLY. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of KOOL.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 7 of 7
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Company Update
Close Bt17.20
Banking
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
September 28, 2015
Ready to move ahead after easing of overhanging concern on SSI case Price Performance (%)
Source: SET Smart
FY15
FY16
Consensus EPS (Bt)
2.118
2.352
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
1.5%
‐0.1%
Reuters / Bloomberg
KTB.BK/KTB TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
13,976.06
Par (Bt)
5.15
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
240.00/6,650.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
25.00/14.65
52 week High / Low (Bt)
24.40/16.60
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
51,613.00 4.65
Estimated free float (%)
44.93
Beta
1.13
URL
www.ktb.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 4 (Certified)
Note: KT•ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO
Roll over to use 16E target price We view that the bank’s action taken on the SSI case should ease the long overhanging concern. Going forward, we view that KTB’s solid core earnings should help to reduce the impact of a potential high provisioning level. Moreover, we expect the ongoing series of economic stimulus packages to partly help boost confidence and economic activities, and we see KTB being one of the prime gainers from the modest economic recovery. The bank’s inexpensive valuation with 2016E P/BV of 1.0x and a sound dividend yield of ~5% are other appeals. Action on SSI case should ease the overhanging concern KTB has total lending exposure to the SSI Group at ~Bt23bn. KTB will utilize its general reserve of ~Bt9bn to cope with the new reserve requirement for the SSI case. KTB’s NPL ratio will increase by ~1% to ~3.9% in 3Q15, while the NPL coverage ratio will drop to ~92% from 125% in 2Q15. However, the bank decided to set an extra provision of Bt6bn in 3Q15 on top of its normal level of ~Bt2.1bn in order to bring its reserve level to above 100%. Trim net profit estimates for 15‐16E by 3‐5% Our earnings revision was primarily to fine‐tune with the bank’s move on the SSI case as well as the latest weaker operating environment. Following our NP revision coupled with rolling over to use the 2016E target price, our 16 target price stands at Bt21/share. Expect 3Q15E net profit of Bt6.0bn (‐35% YoY and ‐29% QoQ) The drop in net profit is due to the fact that KTB will have to set an extra provision of Bt6bn as mentioned earlier. Meanwhile, loan growth should remain weak (+~1‐2% YTD) and NIM should be lower QoQ due to the rate cut impact. However, non‐interest income should remain the bright spot with solid growth of above 10% YoY. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
PPOP (Btmn)
44,262
52,032
55,249
56,149
61,008
Provision (Btmn)
12,311
18,643
25,547
23,013
22,385
Net Profit (Btmn)
34,511
33,191
30,019
32,624
37,940
2.47
2.37
2.15
2.33
2.71
EPS Growth (%)
47.7%
‐3.8%
‐9.6%
8.7%
16.3%
Book value (Bt)
14.74
16.60
17.89
19.38
21.24
EPS (Bt)
Dividend (Bt)
0.88
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.95
FY Ended 31 Dec
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
PER (X)
6.97
7.25
8.01
7.37
6.34
Prapharas Nonthapiboon
PBV (X)
1.17
1.04
0.96
0.89
0.81
Analyst, no 17836
Div. Yield (%) ROE (%)
5.12 17.9%
5.23 15.1%
5.23 12.4%
5.23 12.5%
5.52 13.4%
[email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5872
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 7
Summary of lending to the SSI Group KTB has total lending exposure to the SSI Group at ~Bt23bn (likely around 50% each for SSI UK and SSI Thailand). Note that loans to the SSI Group will be classified as NPLs in 3Q15 but KTB has not decided yet whether to write off the UK loans. As per the BoT’s latest requirement, banks with exposure to SSI UK have to set provision expenses at 100% of gross loans (vs. 58% of gross loans as of 2Q15 based on the forced sale value of collateral) as the collateral value of SSI UK will be set at zero value. Meanwhile, the required reserve for SSI Thailand will be slightly lower as it will be set at 100% of loans net of the discounted collateral value, which is equivalent to ~30% of gross loans (vs. 36% of gross loans set previously). Factoring in the SSI case, KTB will utilize its general reserve (in the balance sheet side) of ~Bt9bn to cope with the new reserve requirement for the SSI case. Moreover, KTB’s NPL ratio will increase by ~1% to around 3.9% in 3Q15 from 2.96% as of 2Q15, while the NPL coverage ratio will drop to ~92% from 125% in 2Q15. However, due to the lower NPL coverage ratio, the bank decided to set an extra provision again of Bt6bn in 3Q15 (vs. the extra provision of Bt3.6bn already made in 2Q15) on top of the bank’s normalized provision of ~Bt2.1bn in order to bring its reserve level to above 100%. We view that the actions taken on the SSI loans (especially the 100% provision on SSI UK loans) will be positive for the longer term, as it will remove the market’s overhanging concern. Relating to the provisioning guidance going forward, KTB indicated that the bank is quite comfortable with its NPL coverage ratio of above 100% (after the SSI case). It will gradually build up its reserve position over the long term, not in the near term, as the bank also has to balance between its earnings outlook and balance sheet strength. However, we still expect KTB to set some extra provision as usual on top of the bank’s normalized provision of Bt8.4bn per year. Trim net profit estimates for 15‐16E by 3‐5% We trim our net profit (NP) forecasts for KTB by 3‐5% for 2015‐16E, primarily to fine‐tune with the bank’s action on the SSI case as well as the latest weaker operating environment. Our main revisions are a higher provision on the additional extra provision mentioned earlier and lower growth in loan and fee income (see Figure 1). Following our NP revision coupled with rolling over to use the 2016E target price, our 16 target price stands at Bt21/share, for an implied target P/BV of 1.1x (from the 15E target price of Bt20/share previously). Our target price was derived from the Gordon growth model and based on long‐term sustainable ROE of 14% and an L‐T growth rate of 10%. Figure 1: Key changes in our earnings revision 2015E Net profit (Btmn) NP change from previous (%) NP Growth YoY (%) Loan growth Net fee income growth (%) NIM (%) Cost to income ratio (%) Provision for loan loss (Btmn) Provision for loan loss (% of loans) Tax rate Source: KT ZMICO Research
New 30,019 ‐3% ‐10% 3% 13% 3.06% 44.5% 25,547 1.27% 18%
2016E Previous 30,956 ‐7% 5% 15% 2.95% 45.2% 23,071 1.13% 18%
New 32,624 ‐5% 9% 4% 13% 3.09% 45.1% 23,013 1.10% 19%
Previous 34,471 11% 6% 14% 3.01% 45.8% 21,739 1.00% 19%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 7
Expect 3Q15E net profit of Bt6.0bn (‐35% YoY and ‐29% QoQ) The drop in net profit is due to the fact that KTB will have to set an extra provision of Bt6bn as mentioned earlier. Meanwhile, loan growth should remain weak (+~1‐2% YTD) and NIM should drop YoY and QoQ due to the rate cut impact. However, non‐interest income should remain the bright spot with solid growth likely in the mid‐teens YoY, thanks partly to the ongoing improvement of the bank’s fee‐based income after completion of the transformation program early this year. Figure 2: 3Q15 earnings preview Statement of comprehensive income (Btmn) Fiscal Year-Ended Dec.
3Q14
2Q15
3Q15E % YoY % QoQ
9M14
9M15E
% YoY
2015E % YoY % 9M to 15E
Net Interest Income
20,033
20,895
20,459
2%
-2% 59,197
60,693
3%
81,214
2%
Non Interest Income
7,050
8,728
8,480
20%
-3% 21,305
24,957
17%
32,701
14%
76%
Operating Income
27,083
29,624
28,939
7%
-2% 80,502
85,650
6%
113,915
5%
75%
Operating Expenses
11,480
12,166
11,593
1%
-5% 35,416
36,925
4%
50,653
5%
73%
Provision (Reversal)
3,984
7,515
9,750
145%
30% 13,586
20,990
54%
25,547
37%
82%
Tax expenses (Reversal)
2,110
1,259
1,367
-35%
5,656
4,604
-19%
6,713
-7%
69%
Net Profit
9,255
8,449
6,009
-35%
-29% 25,172
22,387
-11%
30,019
-10%
75%
13,338
15,871
15,379
15%
-3% 39,010
42,791
10%
55,249
6%
77%
0.66
0.60
0.43
-35%
1.60
-11%
2.15
-10%
75%
3Q14
2Q15
3Q15E
9M14
9M15E
68,858
67,551
91,451
68,858
91,451
3.07%
3.95%
3.49%
112.6% 101.1%
100.7%
PPOP-after tax EPS (Bt) Key Statistics & Ratios Gross NPLs (Btmn) Gross NPLs/Loans Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs
3.07%
2.96%
3.95%
112.6%
125.2%
101.1%
9%
-29%
1.80
2015E 81,666
Tier I to Risk Assets
11.2%
10.6%
11.2%
11.2%
11.2%
11.8%
C apital Adequacy Ratio
15.9%
14.4%
15.9%
15.9%
15.9%
14.7%
Loan to Deposit Ratio
97.4%
95.0%
95.4%
97.4%
95.4%
95.9%
Loan to Deposits & Borrowings
89.5%
90.4%
90.3%
89.5%
90.3%
90.0%
Provision to loans
0.86%
1.52%
1.97%
0.98%
1.42%
1.27% 44.5%
C ost to Income
42.4%
41.1%
40.1%
44.0%
43.1%
Non Interest Inc./Total Inc.
26.0%
29.5%
29.3%
26.5%
29.1%
28.7%
Net Interest Margin
3.21%
3.10%
3.08%
3.18%
3.01%
3.06%
Tax rate
18.2%
12.7%
18.0%
17.9% 16.09%
17.8%
Loan growth -YoY
10.2%
6.4%
6.6%
10.2%
6.6%
Loan growth -QoQ
-0.4%
1.3%
-0.3%
-0.4%
-0.3%
3.0%
Source: KTZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 7
75%
Figure 3: KTB's P/BV band and sensitivity of market prices based on P/BV at different standard deviation levels (X) 2.0
2015E
PBV (x) Implied market
+2 S.D.
1.8
+1.5 S.D. +1 S.D.
Upside/ Downside
price (Bt)
to current price (%)
+2.0SD
1.8
32
75
+1.5SD
1.6
29
59
+1.0SD
1.5
26
44
-1 S.D.
+0.5SD
1.3
23
29
-1.5 S.D.
Average
1.1
21
13
0.4
-0.5SD
1.0
18
-2
0.2
-1.0SD
0.8
15
-17
-1.5SD
0.7
12
-32
-2.0SD
0.5
9
-48
1.6 1.4
+0.5 S.D. Av g. -0.5 S.D.
1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6
Mar-15
Aug-15
Apr-14
Sep-14
Nov-13
Jan-13
Jun-13
Feb-12
Aug-12
Apr-11
Sep-11
Jun-10
Nov-10
Jul-09
Jan-10
Feb-09
Apr-08
Sep-08
Nov-07
Jan-07
Jun-07
-2 S.D.
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 4: KTB's PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels (X) 25
2015E
20
Mar-15
Aug-15
Sep-14
Apr-14
Nov-13
Jan-13
Jun-13
Feb-12
Aug-12
Apr-11
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Sep-11
Jun-10
Nov-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Feb-09
Jan-07
Jun-07
0
Sep-08
5
Apr-08
10
+1.5 S.D. +1 S.D. +0.5 S.D. Av g. -0.5 S.D. -1 S.D. -1.5 S.D. -2 S.D.
Nov-07
15
+2 S.D.
PER (x) Implied market
Upside/ Downside
price (Bt)
to current price (%)
+2.0SD
17.5
37
107
+1.5SD
15.6
33
85
+1.0SD
13.7
29
62
+0.5SD
11.8
25
40
Average
9.9
21
17
-0.5SD
8.0
17
-6
-1.0SD
6.1
13
-28
-1.5SD
4.2
9
-51
-2.0SD
2.3
5
-73
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 7
Statement of Comprehensive Income (Btmn) Year‐end 31 Dec Total Interest Income Total Interest Expenses Net Interest Income Fee and Service income Gain on exchange Other Income Total Non‐Interest Income Operating Income Personnel Expenses Premises & Equipment Exp. Other Expenses Total Operating Expenses Operating Profit Extraordinary Item Provision for Loan Losses Taxation Minority Interests Net Profit PPOP PPP EPS (Bt)
2013 111,403 46,921 64,481 15,712 4,581 7,263 27,556 92,037 22,785 7,444
2014 130,466 51,072 79,394 16,383 4,827 7,447 28,657 108,051 26,067 8,888
2015E 134,303 53,089 81,214 18,490 5,309 8,902 32,701 113,915 27,292 9,155
2016E 138,155 54,925 83,230 20,922 5,097 8,605 34,624 117,854 28,930 9,246
2017E 152,377 63,598 88,779 23,579 5,352 9,181 38,111 126,890 30,665 9,431
9,357 39,586 52,185 2,294 12,311 7,923 ‐ 34,511 44,262 46,822 2.47
13,191 48,146 59,216 ‐ 18,643 7,184 (887) 33,191 52,032 51,834 2.37
14,206 50,653 61,963 ‐ 25,547 6,713 (984) 30,019 55,249 55,565 2.15
15,015 53,191 64,063 ‐ 23,013 7,914 (1,112) 32,624 56,149 55,637 2.33
15,685 55,781 70,509 ‐ 22,385 9,501 (1,282) 37,940 61,008 60,325 2.71
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
51,149 448,818 ‐ 238,773 1,762,298 4,647 1,766,945 (66,300) 1,700,645 30,661 27,243 56,509 2,553,799
74,770 456,721 ‐ 258,495 1,952,996 5,191 1,958,187 (76,021) 1,882,166 30,733 28,116 58,141 2,789,143
56,077 342,541 ‐ 293,897 2,011,537 3,218 2,014,756 (82,267) 1,932,489 30,119 28,959 73,607 2,757,688
56,638 337,403 ‐ 302,572 2,092,068 3,452 2,095,520 (98,680) 1,996,840 29,215 29,828 79,508 2,832,004
57,205 303,662 ‐ 317,267 2,238,484 3,917 2,242,401 (113,915) 2,128,486 28,339 30,126 81,620 2,946,705
1,882,863 206,189 167,209
2,151,268 167,215 146,971
2,097,487 175,576 137,971
2,139,436 172,064 147,971
2,216,456 177,226 148,971
88,350 2,344,611
87,822 2,553,276
92,468 2,503,501
97,373 2,556,844
102,550 2,645,203
72,005 20,834 99,312 ‐ 13,940 206,091
72,005 20,834 119,660 ‐ 19,644 232,142
72,005 20,834 136,495 ‐ 20,866 250,200
72,005 20,834 155,936 ‐ 22,119 270,894
72,005 20,834 180,693 ‐ 23,405 296,937
Statement of Financial Position (Btmn) Year‐end 31 Dec Assets Cash Interbank & Money Market REPO Net Investment in Securities Loans Accrued Interest Receivables Loans & Accrued Int.Rec. Less: Loan Loss Reserves Net Loans and Receivables Properties Foreclosed Premises and Equipment, Net Other Assets Total Assets Liabilities & Equity Total Deposits Interbank & Money Market Total Borrowings Other Liabilities Total Liabilities Paid‐up Capital (Bt5.15 Par) Premium on Share Capital Retained Earnings Unrealized Loss on LT Securities Other Equity Items Total Shareholders' Equity Source: KTZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 5 of 7
Key Statistics and Ratios Year‐end 31 Dec Per share Data (Bt) EPS DPS BVPS
2013
2014
2.47 0.88 14.74
2.37 0.90 16.60
2.15 0.90 17.89
2.33 0.90 19.38
2.71 0.95 21.24
Valuation analysis PER (X) P/BV (X) Dividend yield (%)
6.97 1.17 5.12
7.25 1.04 5.23
8.01 0.96 5.23
7.37 0.89 5.23
6.34 0.81 5.52
Growth (%) Net Profit EPS Net Interest Income Non Interest Income
47.7% 47.7% 10.1% 18.1%
‐3.8% ‐3.8% 23.1% 4.0%
‐9.6% ‐9.6% 2.3% 14.1%
8.7% 8.7% 2.5% 5.9%
16.3% 16.3% 6.7% 10.1%
Net Fee & Service Income Operating Income Operating Expenses Operating Profit PPOP PPP Loans ‐ Net Deposits Gross NPLs
18.9% 12.4% 12.0% 12.9% 15.9% 21.5% 15.5% 13.0% ‐5.0%
4.3% 17.4% 21.6% 13.5% 17.6% 10.7% 10.8% 14.3% 1.6%
12.9% 5.4% 5.2% 4.6% 6.2% 7.2% 3.0% ‐2.5% 42.1%
13.2% 3.5% 5.0% 3.4% 1.6% 0.1% 4.0% 2.0% 5.1%
12.7% 7.7% 4.9% 10.1% 8.7% 8.4% 7.0% 3.6% ‐0.2%
Asset Quality Ratio Gross NPLs (Btmn) Gross NPLs/Loans Loan Loss Reserve/NPLs Accrued Interest/Loans Loan Loss Reserve/Loans Property Foreclosed/Loans
Loan to Deposit Ratio Loan to Deposit and Borrowing Ratio Profitability Ratio ROA ROE Cost to Income Non Interest Income/Total Income
Key Assumptions Loan Growth ‐ Net Cost to Income Net Interest Margin (NIM) Provision expenses (Btmn) Provision (% of loans) Source: KTZMICO Research
2016E
2017E
56,560 57,489 81,666 85,793 85,622 2.6% 2.4% 3.5% 3.6% 3.4% 117.2% 132.2% 100.7% 115.0% 133.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 3.8% 3.9% 4.1% 4.7% 5.1% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3%
Capital & Liquidity Ratio Equity/Asset Tier I to Risk Assets Capital Adequacy Ratio
Net Interest Margin (NIM)
2015E
8.1% 10.2% 14.8% 93.6% 86.0%
8.3% 10.9% 14.8% 90.8% 85.0%
9.1% 11.8% 14.7% 95.9% 90.0%
9.6% 12.4% 15.0% 97.8% 91.5%
10.1% 13.0% 15.3% 101.0% 94.6%
1.4% 17.9% 43.0% 29.9% 2.80%
1.2% 15.1% 44.6% 26.5% 3.10%
1.1% 12.4% 44.5% 28.7% 3.06%
1.2% 12.5% 45.1% 29.4% 3.09%
1.3% 13.4% 44.0% 30.0% 3.18%
2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 15.5% 10.8% 3.0% 4.0% 7.0% 43.0% 44.6% 44.5% 45.1% 44.0% 2.80% 3.10% 3.06% 3.09% 3.18% 12,311 18,643 25,547 23,013 22,385 0.70% 0.95% 1.27% 1.10% 1.00%
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 6 of 7
Note: KT ZMICO is a partnership between KTB and ZMICO. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, KBS, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, CPI . KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, SUTHA, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, PLE, SAFARI, PACE, TPOLY. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of KOOL.
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market returns over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 7 of 7
th
th
th
th
KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
