Plan B Media - Global Alliance Partners
Plan B Media Buy (17E TP Bt6.80)
Company Update
Close Bt5.10
Media & Publishing October 28, 2016
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
An opportunity to accumulate Price Performance (%)
Slightly lower 2017E TP to Bt6.80; Maintain BUY Given the negative impact from the mourning period, we lower PLANB’s net profit in 2016‐17E. Meanwhile, PLANB’s DCF‐based 2017E TP also slightly lowered to Bt6.80, vs. Bt7.00 previously, implying 48x PER (‐1SD). The share price over the month has underperformed the SET owing to the negative impact. However, we view this as only short‐term negative sentiment and any share price decline should be a good opportunity to accumulate. We thus maintain our “BUY” call for PLANB. Revenue capacity to increase to Bt4.4bn in 2017E (+13% YoY) PLANB targets revenue capacity in 2017E to increase by 13% YoY to Bt4.4bn (excluding Bt800mn from sport media). Strong growth (+100% YoY, 5% of total) will come from airport media after PLANB recently acquired a 50% investment stake in Bright Sky Media Co., Ltd., who owns the rights to manage media at 22 airports nationwide, especially at boarding areas at Don Muang International Airport (DMK), a prime area for media displays. Meanwhile, digital media revenue capacity is expected to increase by 27% YoY (38% of total) owing partly to price adjustments for PLANB TV.
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.124
0.181
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐22.6%
‐22.7%
Reuters / Bloomberg
PLANB.BK/PLANB TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
3,507.40
Par (Bt)
0.10
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
18.00/510.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/35.77
52 week High / Low (Bt)
7.60/4.14
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
9,769.00 0.57
Estimated free float (%)
30.11
Beta
1.26
URL
www.planbmedia.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 2 (Declared)
Raenoo Bhandasukdi Analyst no. 17989 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5836
3Q16E net profit to be flat both YoY and QoQ We expect PLANB to report flat net profit of Bt108mn in 3Q16E. Revenue is likely to increase by 11% YoY and 5% QoQ to Bt635mn owing to media expansion and utilization rate improvement to 67%, vs. 59% in 2Q16. However, the gross profit margin is likely to decline to 34%, vs. 36% in 3Q15, and SG&A expenses are expected to increase owing to costs related to media expansion, especially digital media upcountry. Downgrade earnings in 2016‐17E owing to mourning period We revise down the net profit estimates in 2016‐17E by 15% and 4% to Bt336mn and Bt491mn, respectively, owing to downward revisions of revenue projections (to Bt2.2bn and Bt2.7bn in 2016‐17E, vs. Bt2.5bn and Bt2.9bn previously) due to the impact of the mourning period. According to PLANB, around 70% of total media capacity (digital & static media) will have to cease/reduce advertising displays to show respect during the mourning period for at least one month (starting from 13‐Oct, 2016). Meanwhile, we believe the negative sentiment will cause service/product owners to delay the launch of new services/products, and in turn advertising spending, until 1Q17E before picking up again in 2Q17E upon entering the high season. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Bt mn) Net profit (Bt mn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec Norm. PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net Gearing (%)
2014 1,465 207 0.080 (29.27) 0.11 0.29 2014 64.12 23.53 17.52 2.07 25.66 159.30
2015 2,154 400 0.114 43.46 0.06 0.84 2015 44.70 14.61 6.05 1.37 21.55 cash
2016E 2,209 336 0.096 (16.01) 0.06 0.87 2016E 53.21 14.96 5.87 1.15 11.19 cash
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
2017E 2,717 491 0.140 46.17 0.09 0.95 2017E 36.40 10.59 5.37 1.69 15.40 cash
2018E 2,951 532 0.152 8.17 0.09 1.02 2017E 33.65 8.91 5.02 1.82 15.41 cash
Figure 1: PLANB’s PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels (X) 90 +2.0 S.D.
80 70
+1.5 S.D. +1.0 S.D. +0.5 S.D.
Avg.
60 50 40
-0.5 S.D. -1.0 S.D. -1 .5 S.D. -2.0 S.D.
30
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2017E +2.0SD +1.5SD +1.0SD +0.5SD Average ‐0.5SD ‐1.0SD ‐1.5SD ‐2.0SD
PER (x) 79.5 74.1 68.7 63.3 57.9 52.5 47.1 41.7 36.3
Implied market price (Bt) 11.13 10.38 9.62 8.86 8.11 7.35 6.60 5.84 5.08
Upside/Downside vs. current market price (%) 122.68 107.55 92.42 77.29 62.16 47.04 31.91 16.78 1.65
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 2: 3Q16E earnings preview Profit and Loss (Btmn) Year‐end 31 Dec Revenue Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Interest expense Other income Income tax Gn (Ls) from affiliates Net profit (loss) Normalized profit (loss) Reported EPS (Bt) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt/equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%)
3Q15 571 206 (71) 229 (1) 4 (27) ‐ 110 110 0.032
2Q16 607 206 (86) 229 (0) 6 (15) 1 111 111 0.032
3Q16E 635 216 (90) 237 ‐ 5 (23) 1 108 108 0.031
% YoY 11.1 4.7 27.1 3.2 ‐ 41.6 (15.1) ‐ (2.2) (2.2) (2.6)
% QoQ 4.6 4.8 4.6 3.7 ‐ (21.3) 49.3 82.5 (2.5) (2.5) (2.5)
9M16E 1,795 575 (252) 651 (0) 15 (57) 1 279 279 0.08
36.1 40.2 19.3 4.5 94.5 cash 0.8 26.3
34.0 37.7 18.2 3.2 4,003.7 cash 0.8 15.0
34.0 37.3 17.0
32.0 36.3 15.5
% YoY 16.1 (1.4) 17.8 1.5 (96.2) 34.5 (22.9) ‐ (5.8) (5.8) (6.1)
2016E
YTD % of 16E
2,209 714 (320) 846 ‐ 17 (70) (0) 336 336 0.10
81.3 80.5 78.7 77.0 ‐ 89.7 81.1 ‐ 82.9 82.9 82.9
32.3 38.3 15.2 4.0 cash cash 0.9 11.2
Source: PLANB, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Financial tables
PROFIT & LOSS (Btm) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra items Gain (loss) from affiliates Minority interests Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btm) Cash and equivalents Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Minority interests Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btm) Net income Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital FX, non‐cash adjustment & others Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) Norm. EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2013 1,379 (784) 595 (185) 619 (209) 410 (40) 4 374 (82) 0 (125) 0 0 167 0.064 0.06 292 0.112 0.08
2014 1,465 (942) 523 (202) 614 (292) 322 (55) 4 270 (64) 0 0 0 0 207 0.080 0.08 207 0.080 0.11
2015 2,154 (1,348) 806 (302) 878 (374) 503 (13) 16 507 (101) 0 0 (0) (5) 400 0.114 0.11 400 0.114 0.07
2013 74 0 1,072 1,125 2,271 402 519 1,418 0 854 2,272
2014 61 0 1,163 1,142 2,365 534 731 1,609 0 756 2,365
2015 429 0 1,242 1,722 3,393 2 1 413 22 2,958 3,393
2013 167 209 (183) 128 320 (707) (162) (869) 308 461 (205) 564 15 ‐549 ‐0.21
2014 207 292 (197) 2 304 (383) (2) (385) 343 0 (275) 68 (12) ‐80 ‐0.03
2015 400 374 (31) 0 744 (300) (465) (765) (1,373) 1,836 (74) 389 368 ‐21 ‐0.01
2013 36.6 60.9 28.2 43.2 44.9 29.7 12.1 21.2 21.9
2014 6.2 (0.8) (29.3) 35.7 41.9 22.0 14.1 14.1 23.6
2015 47.0 42.9 43.5 37.4 40.8 23.4 18.6 18.6 20.0
2016E 2,209 (1,495) 714 (320) 846 (452) 394 0 17 410 (70) 0 0 (0) (4) 336 0.096 0.10 336 0.096 0.06 2016E 601 0 1,268 1,622 3,490 2 1 442 0 3,049 3,490 2016E 336 452 129 0 917 (500) 0 (500) 0 0 (246) (246) 172 417 0.12 2016E 2.6 (3.7) (16.01) 32.3 38.3 17.8 15.2 15.2 17.0
2017E 2,717 (1,766) 952 (372) 1,156 (577) 579 0 21 600 (102) 0 0 (0) (6) 491 0.140 0.14 491 0.140 0.09
2018E 2,951 (1,920) 1,031 (404) 1,328 (702) 627 0 22 649 (110) 0 0 (0) (7) 532 0.152 0.15 532 0.152 0.09
2017E 1,005 0 1,191 1,646 3,841 2 1 507 0 3,334 3,841
2018E 1,416 0 989 1,703 4,108 2 1 545 0 3,564 4,108
2017E 491 577 42 0 1,110 (500) 0 (500) 0 0 (206) (206) 404 610 0.17
2018E 532 702 (21) 0 1,213 (500) 0 (500) 0 0 (301) (301) 411 713 0.20
2017E 23.0 36.7 46.17 35.0 42.5 21.3 18.1 18.1 17.0
2018E 8.6 14.9 8.17 34.9 45.0 21.2 18.0 18.0 17.0
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, TPOLY, M‐CHAI, TFD, SUTHA. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of ALLA, BPP.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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th
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
th
nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
th
Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
Company Update
Close Bt5.10
Media & Publishing October 28, 2016
Earnings upgrade/Earnings downgrade/Overview unchanged
An opportunity to accumulate Price Performance (%)
Slightly lower 2017E TP to Bt6.80; Maintain BUY Given the negative impact from the mourning period, we lower PLANB’s net profit in 2016‐17E. Meanwhile, PLANB’s DCF‐based 2017E TP also slightly lowered to Bt6.80, vs. Bt7.00 previously, implying 48x PER (‐1SD). The share price over the month has underperformed the SET owing to the negative impact. However, we view this as only short‐term negative sentiment and any share price decline should be a good opportunity to accumulate. We thus maintain our “BUY” call for PLANB. Revenue capacity to increase to Bt4.4bn in 2017E (+13% YoY) PLANB targets revenue capacity in 2017E to increase by 13% YoY to Bt4.4bn (excluding Bt800mn from sport media). Strong growth (+100% YoY, 5% of total) will come from airport media after PLANB recently acquired a 50% investment stake in Bright Sky Media Co., Ltd., who owns the rights to manage media at 22 airports nationwide, especially at boarding areas at Don Muang International Airport (DMK), a prime area for media displays. Meanwhile, digital media revenue capacity is expected to increase by 27% YoY (38% of total) owing partly to price adjustments for PLANB TV.
Source: SET Smart
FY16
FY17
Consensus EPS (Bt)
0.124
0.181
KT ZMICO vs. consensus Share data
‐22.6%
‐22.7%
Reuters / Bloomberg
PLANB.BK/PLANB TB
Paid‐up Shares (m)
3,507.40
Par (Bt)
0.10
Market cap (Bt bn / US$ m)
18.00/510.00
Foreign limit / actual (%)
49.00/35.77
52 week High / Low (Bt)
7.60/4.14
Avg. daily T/O (shares 000) NVDR (%)
9,769.00 0.57
Estimated free float (%)
30.11
Beta
1.26
URL
www.planbmedia.co.th
CGR
Anti‐corruption
Level 2 (Declared)
Raenoo Bhandasukdi Analyst no. 17989 [email protected] 66 (0) 2695‐5836
3Q16E net profit to be flat both YoY and QoQ We expect PLANB to report flat net profit of Bt108mn in 3Q16E. Revenue is likely to increase by 11% YoY and 5% QoQ to Bt635mn owing to media expansion and utilization rate improvement to 67%, vs. 59% in 2Q16. However, the gross profit margin is likely to decline to 34%, vs. 36% in 3Q15, and SG&A expenses are expected to increase owing to costs related to media expansion, especially digital media upcountry. Downgrade earnings in 2016‐17E owing to mourning period We revise down the net profit estimates in 2016‐17E by 15% and 4% to Bt336mn and Bt491mn, respectively, owing to downward revisions of revenue projections (to Bt2.2bn and Bt2.7bn in 2016‐17E, vs. Bt2.5bn and Bt2.9bn previously) due to the impact of the mourning period. According to PLANB, around 70% of total media capacity (digital & static media) will have to cease/reduce advertising displays to show respect during the mourning period for at least one month (starting from 13‐Oct, 2016). Meanwhile, we believe the negative sentiment will cause service/product owners to delay the launch of new services/products, and in turn advertising spending, until 1Q17E before picking up again in 2Q17E upon entering the high season. Financials and Valuation FY Ended 31 Dec Revenues (Bt mn) Net profit (Bt mn) EPS (Bt) EPS growth (%) Dividend (Bt) BV (Bt) FY Ended 31 Dec Norm. PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) PBV (x) Dividend yield (%) ROE (%) Net Gearing (%)
2014 1,465 207 0.080 (29.27) 0.11 0.29 2014 64.12 23.53 17.52 2.07 25.66 159.30
2015 2,154 400 0.114 43.46 0.06 0.84 2015 44.70 14.61 6.05 1.37 21.55 cash
2016E 2,209 336 0.096 (16.01) 0.06 0.87 2016E 53.21 14.96 5.87 1.15 11.19 cash
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
2017E 2,717 491 0.140 46.17 0.09 0.95 2017E 36.40 10.59 5.37 1.69 15.40 cash
2018E 2,951 532 0.152 8.17 0.09 1.02 2017E 33.65 8.91 5.02 1.82 15.41 cash
Figure 1: PLANB’s PER band and sensitivity of market prices based on PER at different standard deviation levels (X) 90 +2.0 S.D.
80 70
+1.5 S.D. +1.0 S.D. +0.5 S.D.
Avg.
60 50 40
-0.5 S.D. -1.0 S.D. -1 .5 S.D. -2.0 S.D.
30
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2017E +2.0SD +1.5SD +1.0SD +0.5SD Average ‐0.5SD ‐1.0SD ‐1.5SD ‐2.0SD
PER (x) 79.5 74.1 68.7 63.3 57.9 52.5 47.1 41.7 36.3
Implied market price (Bt) 11.13 10.38 9.62 8.86 8.11 7.35 6.60 5.84 5.08
Upside/Downside vs. current market price (%) 122.68 107.55 92.42 77.29 62.16 47.04 31.91 16.78 1.65
Source: Bloomberg, KT ZMICO Research
Figure 2: 3Q16E earnings preview Profit and Loss (Btmn) Year‐end 31 Dec Revenue Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Interest expense Other income Income tax Gn (Ls) from affiliates Net profit (loss) Normalized profit (loss) Reported EPS (Bt) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Net margin (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Debt/equity (x) BVPS (Bt) ROE (%)
3Q15 571 206 (71) 229 (1) 4 (27) ‐ 110 110 0.032
2Q16 607 206 (86) 229 (0) 6 (15) 1 111 111 0.032
3Q16E 635 216 (90) 237 ‐ 5 (23) 1 108 108 0.031
% YoY 11.1 4.7 27.1 3.2 ‐ 41.6 (15.1) ‐ (2.2) (2.2) (2.6)
% QoQ 4.6 4.8 4.6 3.7 ‐ (21.3) 49.3 82.5 (2.5) (2.5) (2.5)
9M16E 1,795 575 (252) 651 (0) 15 (57) 1 279 279 0.08
36.1 40.2 19.3 4.5 94.5 cash 0.8 26.3
34.0 37.7 18.2 3.2 4,003.7 cash 0.8 15.0
34.0 37.3 17.0
32.0 36.3 15.5
% YoY 16.1 (1.4) 17.8 1.5 (96.2) 34.5 (22.9) ‐ (5.8) (5.8) (6.1)
2016E
YTD % of 16E
2,209 714 (320) 846 ‐ 17 (70) (0) 336 336 0.10
81.3 80.5 78.7 77.0 ‐ 89.7 81.1 ‐ 82.9 82.9 82.9
32.3 38.3 15.2 4.0 cash cash 0.9 11.2
Source: PLANB, KT ZMICO Research
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
Financial tables
PROFIT & LOSS (Btm) Revenues Cost of sales and service Gross profit SG&A EBITDA Depreciation & amortization EBIT Interest expense Other income / exp. EBT Corporate tax Forex gain (loss) Extra items Gain (loss) from affiliates Minority interests Net profit Reported EPS Fully diluted EPS Core net profit Core EPS Dividend (Bt) BALANCE SHEET (Btm) Cash and equivalents Inventories PP&E‐net Other assets Total assets ST debt & current portion Long‐term debt Total liabilities Minority interests Shareholder equity Total liab. & shareholder equity CASH FLOW (Btm) Net income Depreciation & amortization Change in working capital FX, non‐cash adjustment & others Cash flow from operations Capex (Invest)/Divest Others Cash flow from investing Debt financing (repayment) Equity financing Dividend payment Cash flow from financing Net change in cash Free cash flow FCF per share (Bt) PROFITABILITY Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) Norm. EPS growth (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) Operating margin (%) Net margin (%) Core profit margin (%) Effective tax rate (%)
2013 1,379 (784) 595 (185) 619 (209) 410 (40) 4 374 (82) 0 (125) 0 0 167 0.064 0.06 292 0.112 0.08
2014 1,465 (942) 523 (202) 614 (292) 322 (55) 4 270 (64) 0 0 0 0 207 0.080 0.08 207 0.080 0.11
2015 2,154 (1,348) 806 (302) 878 (374) 503 (13) 16 507 (101) 0 0 (0) (5) 400 0.114 0.11 400 0.114 0.07
2013 74 0 1,072 1,125 2,271 402 519 1,418 0 854 2,272
2014 61 0 1,163 1,142 2,365 534 731 1,609 0 756 2,365
2015 429 0 1,242 1,722 3,393 2 1 413 22 2,958 3,393
2013 167 209 (183) 128 320 (707) (162) (869) 308 461 (205) 564 15 ‐549 ‐0.21
2014 207 292 (197) 2 304 (383) (2) (385) 343 0 (275) 68 (12) ‐80 ‐0.03
2015 400 374 (31) 0 744 (300) (465) (765) (1,373) 1,836 (74) 389 368 ‐21 ‐0.01
2013 36.6 60.9 28.2 43.2 44.9 29.7 12.1 21.2 21.9
2014 6.2 (0.8) (29.3) 35.7 41.9 22.0 14.1 14.1 23.6
2015 47.0 42.9 43.5 37.4 40.8 23.4 18.6 18.6 20.0
2016E 2,209 (1,495) 714 (320) 846 (452) 394 0 17 410 (70) 0 0 (0) (4) 336 0.096 0.10 336 0.096 0.06 2016E 601 0 1,268 1,622 3,490 2 1 442 0 3,049 3,490 2016E 336 452 129 0 917 (500) 0 (500) 0 0 (246) (246) 172 417 0.12 2016E 2.6 (3.7) (16.01) 32.3 38.3 17.8 15.2 15.2 17.0
2017E 2,717 (1,766) 952 (372) 1,156 (577) 579 0 21 600 (102) 0 0 (0) (6) 491 0.140 0.14 491 0.140 0.09
2018E 2,951 (1,920) 1,031 (404) 1,328 (702) 627 0 22 649 (110) 0 0 (0) (7) 532 0.152 0.15 532 0.152 0.09
2017E 1,005 0 1,191 1,646 3,841 2 1 507 0 3,334 3,841
2018E 1,416 0 989 1,703 4,108 2 1 545 0 3,564 4,108
2017E 491 577 42 0 1,110 (500) 0 (500) 0 0 (206) (206) 404 610 0.17
2018E 532 702 (21) 0 1,213 (500) 0 (500) 0 0 (301) (301) 411 713 0.20
2017E 23.0 36.7 46.17 35.0 42.5 21.3 18.1 18.1 17.0
2018E 8.6 14.9 8.17 34.9 45.0 21.2 18.0 18.0 17.0
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Note: KT ZMICO has two major shareholders, Krungthai Bank PLC (KTB) and Seamico Securities PLC (ZMICO). Therefore, prior to making investments in the securities of KTB and ZMICO, investors should consider the risk factors carefully. An executive of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BCP, BTC, CI, CPI, KBS, MAJOR, MK, PACE, PSL, SVH, VNG, ZMICO, SAWAD, TFG. A management member of KT ZMICO Securities is also a board member of BTC and NFC. KT ZMICO is a financial advisor for U, LOXLEY, ZMICO, MAKRO, CPALL, SAFARI, PACE, TPOLY, M‐CHAI, TFD, SUTHA. KT ZMICO is a co‐underwriter of ALLA, BPP.
Corporate Governance Report (CGR) Source: Sec, Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Excellent (scores: 90 ‐ 100) Very Good (scores: 80 – 89) Good (scores: 70 – 79)
Satisfactory (scores: 60 – 69) Pass (scores: 50 – 59) No Logo N/A (scores: below 50)
Anti‐corruption Progress Indicator Source: Sec, Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
Level 1 (Committed) : Organization’s statement or board's resolution to work against corruption and to be in compliance with all relevant laws. Level 2 (Declared) : Public declaration statement to participate in Thailand's private sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption (CAC) or equivalent initiatives Level 3 (Established) : Public out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes Level 4 (Certified) : Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 5 (Extended) : Extension of the anti‐corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Insufficient or not clearly defined policy Data not available / no policy
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's over the next 12 months coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. to +15%; returns expected to exceed market returns NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage over a six‐month period due to specific catalysts universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between primary market index over the next 12 months. ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to be below market UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's returns over a six‐month period due to specific coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant catalysts primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
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KT•ZMICO Securities Company Limited
st
8 , 15 -17 , 19 , 21 Floor, Liberty Square Bldg., 287 Silom Road, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Telephone: (66-2) 695-5000
Phaholyothin Branch
rd
Fax. (66-2) 631-1709
Ploenchit Branch
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nd
2
Sindhorn Branch
3 Floor, Shinnawatra Tower II,
8 Floor, Ton Son Tower,
1291/1 Phaholyothin Road,
900 Ploenchit Road, Lumpini,
Floor, Sindhorn Tower 1, 130-132 Wireless Road, Lumpini,
Phayathai, Bangkok 10400
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
Telephone: (66-2) 686-1500
Telephone: (66-2) 626-6000
Telephone: (66-2) 627-3550
Fax. (66-2) 686-1666
Fax. (66-2) 626-6111
Fax. (66-2) 627-3582, 627-3600
Nakhon Pathom Branch 1156 Petchakasem Road, Sanamchan Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang , Nakhon Pathom Province 73000 Telephone: (034) 271300 Fax: (034) 271300 #100
Chachoengsao Branch
Viphavadee Branch
Phitsanulok Branch
G Floor, Lao Peng Nguan 1 Bldg.,
Krung Thai Bank, Singhawat Branch
333 Soi Cheypuand, Viphavadee-Rangsit Road,
114 Singhawat Road,
Ladyao, Jatujak, Bangkok 10900
Muang, Phitsanulok 65000
Telephone: (66-2) 618-8500
Telephone: 083-490-2873
Fax. (66-2) 618-8569
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Chonburi Branch
Pattaya Branch
108/34-36 Mahajakkrapad Road,
4 Floor, Forum Plaza Bldg.,
382/6-8 Moo 9, T. NongPrue,
T.Namuang, A.Muang,
870/52 Sukhumvit Road, T. Bangplasoy,
A. Banglamung, Cholburi 20260
Chachoengsao 24000
A. Muang, Cholburi 20000
Telephone: (038) 362-420-9
Telephone: (038) 813-088
Telephone: (038) 287-635
Fax. (038) 362-430
Fax. (038) 813-099
Fax. (038) 287-637
Khon Kaen Branch
5th Floor, Charoen Thani Princess Hotel,
Hat Yai Branch
Sriworajak Building Branch
200/301 Juldis Hatyai Plaza Floor 3,
1st – 2nd Floor, Sriworajak Building, 222
260 Srichan Road, T. Naimuang,
Niphat-Uthit 3 Rd,
Luang Road, Pomprab,
A. Muang, Khon Kaen 40000
Hatyai Songkhla 90110
Bankgok 10100
Telephone: (043) 389-171-193
Telephone: (074) 355-530-3
Telephone: (02) 689-3100
Fax. (043) 389-209
Fax: (074) 355-534
Fax. (02) 689-3199
Central World Branch
Chiang Mai Branch
Phuket Branch
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
422/49 Changklan Road, Changklan
22/61-63, Luang Por Wat Chalong Road,
16th Fl., Rama 1 Rd, Pathumwan,
Subdistrict, Amphoe Meuang,
Talat Yai, Mueang Phuket,
Bangkok 10330
Chiang Mai 50100
Phuket 83000
Telephone: (66-2) 673-5000,
Telephone: (053) 270-072
Tel. (076) 222-811,(076) 222-683
(66-2) 264-5888 Fax. (66-2) 264-5899
Fax: (053) 272-618
Fax. (076) 222-861
Pak Chong Branch
Cyber Branch @ North Nana
173 175, Mittapap Road,
Krung Thai Bank PCL, 2 Floor, North Nana Branch 35 Sukhumvit Rd.,Klong Toey Nua Subdistrict , Wattana District, Bangkok 10110 Telephone: 083-490-2871
Nong Sarai, Pak Chong, Nakhon Ratchasima 30130 Tel. (044) 279-511 Fax. (044) 279-574
Nakhon Ratchasima Branch
Bangkhae Branch
6th Floor The Mall Group Building Bangkhae 275 Moo 1 Petchkasem Road, North Bangkhae, Bangkhae, Bangkok 10160 Tel. (66-2) 454-9979 Fax. (66-2) 454-9970
624/9 Changphuek Road, . Naimaung, A.Maung, Nakhon Ratchasima 30000 Telephone: (044) 247222 Fax: (044) 247171 Information herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its completeness and accuracy are not guaranteed. All opinions expressed constitute our views on that date and are not intended as an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any securities. Investors should exercise care when making a decision to invest in securities. No one may modify or distribute any part of this report unless written permission is first received from Seamico Securities Plc. If any modifications are made, quotes or references taken from the report and the report date must be clearly mentioned and must not cause misunderstanding or damage to the company.
