construction industry survey
CNI indicators ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 8 • Number 4 • April 2017
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY SURVEY Less negative expectations in a still adverse environment The construction industry continues to face a difficult scenario. The indicators of the Construction Industry Survey show that both activity and employment keep falling, while operating capacity utilization has been at low levels and activity is below usual levels.
However, the expectation indicators point to a less negative scenario than that observed in 2016. The indices are close to the dividing line between an expected decline and increase, with the indicator of expected activity levels already showing that activity will hold steady over the coming months, as it stood at the 50-point mark.
Expectations indices* Diffusion indices (0-100 points)
Increase 50 Decrease
50.5 49.1 48.5 48.2
MAY 2016
AUG
Activity levels Number of employees
NOV
New developments and services
Dividing line
* The indices vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate an expected increase.
FEB 2017
Purchases of raw materials
MAY
Construcion industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 8 • Number 4 • April 2017
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE IN APRIL 2017
Activity and employment keep falling The indicators of activity levels and number of employees fell respectively by 1.2 and 0.6 points from March to April. The fact that April’s figures
remain below the 50-point dividing line indicates a drop in activity levels and jobs between March and April.
Activity levels Diffusion index (0-100 points)
Increase 50 Decrease
44.5 42.3 40.1
41.2
43.3
41.8
41.5 40.0
39.3
39.3
40.3
37.9 36.4
APR 2016
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN 2017
FEB
MAR
APR
The index ranges from 0 to 100. Figures above 50 points indicate a month-over-month increase in activity levels.
Idleness remains high as activity levels keep falling The construction industry continues to experience high idle capacity rates. While operating capacity utilization held steady from March to April, it remains at a low level, down by seven percentage points from the historical average for April.
2
The indicator of actual-usual activity levels edged up from 29.1 points in April to 29.6 points in May. Readings below 50 points indicate that activity is below usual levels for the month. The lower the figure, the more activity is below usual levels.
Construcion industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 8 • Number 4 • April 2017
EXPECTATIONS FOR THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY IN MAY 2017
Slowdown in expectation The expectation indicators held virtually steady between April and May, showing some slowdown after April’s increase. The indicators of expected activity levels and number of employees changed respecti-
vely by 0.1 and 0.7 points in May, while those of expected new developments and services and purchases of inputs and raw materials held virtually stable. Each dropped by 0.2 points between April and May.
Expectations indices* Diffusion indices (0-100 points)
Activity levels
New developments and services
Increase 50
Increase 50
50.5 50.4
Decrease
Decrease
40.6
MAY 2016
49.3 49.1
37.7
JUL
SEP
NOV
Activity levels
JAN 2017
MAR
MAY 2016
MAY
Dividing line
JUL
SEP
JAN 2017
New developments and services
Purchases of raw materials
Number of employees
Increase 50
Increase 50
48.7
Decrease
NOV
MAR
MAY
Dividing line
Decrease
48.5
48.2 47.5
39.7 38.4
MAY 2016
JUL
SEP
NOV
Purchases of raw materials
JAN 2017
MAR
MAY
MAY 2016
Dividing line
JUL
SEP
NOV
Number of employees
The indices vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate an expected growth.
3
JAN 2017
MAR
Dividing line
MAY
Construcion industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 8 • Number 4 • April 2017
Investment intentions in construction remain at low levels Entrepreneurs are still not keen to invest, which can be explained by a scenario of low activity and high idleness levels faced by the construction industry. The indicator measuring investment intentions remained at a low level in May as it reached 28.5 points.
Investment intentions Index* Diffusion index (0-100 points)
45 40.8 40
35
30
28.5
28.9
25
20 JAN 2015
MAY
SEP
JAN 2016
MAY
SEP
JAN 2017
MAY
The index varies in the 0-100 interval. * The higher the index, the more likely industry is to invest.
Results by company size Monthly evolution of construction industry Operation Capacity Utilization (%)1
Activity Level2
Actual-Usual Activity Level3
Number of Employees2
Apr/16
Mar/17
Apr/17
Apr/16
Mar/17
Apr/17
Apr/16
Mar/17
Apr/17
Apr/16
Mar/17
Apr/17
54
56
56
36.4
44.5
43.3
26.4
29.1
29.6
35.7
41.7
42.3
SMALL
52
52
51
37.5
42.8
40.2
27.4
30.5
30.8
37.3
40.5
40.4
MEDIUM
54
56
55
37.4
44.0
43.4
26.0
29.4
30.3
35.9
41.1
41.4
LARGE
55
58
58
35.4
45.5
44.4
26.2
28.5
28.7
35.0
42.5
43.6
CONSTRUCTION
Expectations New Developments and Services4
Activity Level4
Purchases of Inputs and Raw Materials4
Investment intentions5
Number of Employees4
May/16
Apr/17
May/17
May/16
Apr/17
May/17
May/16
Apr/17
May/17
May/16
Apr/17
May/17
May/16
Apr/17
May/17
CONSTRUCTION
40.6
50.4
50.5
37.7
49.3
49.1
39.7
48.7
48.5
38.4
47.5
48.2
23.2
28.9
28.5
SMALL
44.2
52.8
51.1
41.3
50.1
48.4
41.1
49.8
48.0
41.0
47.7
46.8
21.3
29.2
28.2
MEDIUM
40.4
50.6
50.5
38.0
49.6
48.7
39.8
48.3
48.5
38.3
47.3
47.3
23.1
29.1
29.2
LARGE
39.3
49.4
50.2
36.2
48.8
49.6
39.1
48.6
48.6
37.5
47.6
49.2
23.9
28.6
28.2
1 The indicator varies in the 0%-100% interval. Series started in January 2012. 2 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate growth. 3 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate higherthan-usual activity levels.
i
4 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate positive expectations. 5 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. The higher the figure, the more entrepreneurs are likely to invest.
Learn more
Technical specifications
For more information on the survey, including historical series and methodology, visit: www.cni.org.br/e_sondconstr
Sample profile: 621 enterprises, including 216 small, 271 medium and 134 large companies. Data collection period: May, 2-12, 2017.
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY SURVEY | English version of “Sondagem Indústria da Construção - Abril 2017” | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Unit - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC| Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Flavia Coelho Branco Junqueira Ferraz, Luis Fernando Melo Mendes (CBIC), Roxana Campos and Taryane Carvalho Perne | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic design supervision: Carla Gadêlha | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 – email: [email protected] | This publication may be copied, provided that the source is mentioned.
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY SURVEY Less negative expectations in a still adverse environment The construction industry continues to face a difficult scenario. The indicators of the Construction Industry Survey show that both activity and employment keep falling, while operating capacity utilization has been at low levels and activity is below usual levels.
However, the expectation indicators point to a less negative scenario than that observed in 2016. The indices are close to the dividing line between an expected decline and increase, with the indicator of expected activity levels already showing that activity will hold steady over the coming months, as it stood at the 50-point mark.
Expectations indices* Diffusion indices (0-100 points)
Increase 50 Decrease
50.5 49.1 48.5 48.2
MAY 2016
AUG
Activity levels Number of employees
NOV
New developments and services
Dividing line
* The indices vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate an expected increase.
FEB 2017
Purchases of raw materials
MAY
Construcion industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 8 • Number 4 • April 2017
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE IN APRIL 2017
Activity and employment keep falling The indicators of activity levels and number of employees fell respectively by 1.2 and 0.6 points from March to April. The fact that April’s figures
remain below the 50-point dividing line indicates a drop in activity levels and jobs between March and April.
Activity levels Diffusion index (0-100 points)
Increase 50 Decrease
44.5 42.3 40.1
41.2
43.3
41.8
41.5 40.0
39.3
39.3
40.3
37.9 36.4
APR 2016
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN 2017
FEB
MAR
APR
The index ranges from 0 to 100. Figures above 50 points indicate a month-over-month increase in activity levels.
Idleness remains high as activity levels keep falling The construction industry continues to experience high idle capacity rates. While operating capacity utilization held steady from March to April, it remains at a low level, down by seven percentage points from the historical average for April.
2
The indicator of actual-usual activity levels edged up from 29.1 points in April to 29.6 points in May. Readings below 50 points indicate that activity is below usual levels for the month. The lower the figure, the more activity is below usual levels.
Construcion industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 8 • Number 4 • April 2017
EXPECTATIONS FOR THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY IN MAY 2017
Slowdown in expectation The expectation indicators held virtually steady between April and May, showing some slowdown after April’s increase. The indicators of expected activity levels and number of employees changed respecti-
vely by 0.1 and 0.7 points in May, while those of expected new developments and services and purchases of inputs and raw materials held virtually stable. Each dropped by 0.2 points between April and May.
Expectations indices* Diffusion indices (0-100 points)
Activity levels
New developments and services
Increase 50
Increase 50
50.5 50.4
Decrease
Decrease
40.6
MAY 2016
49.3 49.1
37.7
JUL
SEP
NOV
Activity levels
JAN 2017
MAR
MAY 2016
MAY
Dividing line
JUL
SEP
JAN 2017
New developments and services
Purchases of raw materials
Number of employees
Increase 50
Increase 50
48.7
Decrease
NOV
MAR
MAY
Dividing line
Decrease
48.5
48.2 47.5
39.7 38.4
MAY 2016
JUL
SEP
NOV
Purchases of raw materials
JAN 2017
MAR
MAY
MAY 2016
Dividing line
JUL
SEP
NOV
Number of employees
The indices vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate an expected growth.
3
JAN 2017
MAR
Dividing line
MAY
Construcion industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 8 • Number 4 • April 2017
Investment intentions in construction remain at low levels Entrepreneurs are still not keen to invest, which can be explained by a scenario of low activity and high idleness levels faced by the construction industry. The indicator measuring investment intentions remained at a low level in May as it reached 28.5 points.
Investment intentions Index* Diffusion index (0-100 points)
45 40.8 40
35
30
28.5
28.9
25
20 JAN 2015
MAY
SEP
JAN 2016
MAY
SEP
JAN 2017
MAY
The index varies in the 0-100 interval. * The higher the index, the more likely industry is to invest.
Results by company size Monthly evolution of construction industry Operation Capacity Utilization (%)1
Activity Level2
Actual-Usual Activity Level3
Number of Employees2
Apr/16
Mar/17
Apr/17
Apr/16
Mar/17
Apr/17
Apr/16
Mar/17
Apr/17
Apr/16
Mar/17
Apr/17
54
56
56
36.4
44.5
43.3
26.4
29.1
29.6
35.7
41.7
42.3
SMALL
52
52
51
37.5
42.8
40.2
27.4
30.5
30.8
37.3
40.5
40.4
MEDIUM
54
56
55
37.4
44.0
43.4
26.0
29.4
30.3
35.9
41.1
41.4
LARGE
55
58
58
35.4
45.5
44.4
26.2
28.5
28.7
35.0
42.5
43.6
CONSTRUCTION
Expectations New Developments and Services4
Activity Level4
Purchases of Inputs and Raw Materials4
Investment intentions5
Number of Employees4
May/16
Apr/17
May/17
May/16
Apr/17
May/17
May/16
Apr/17
May/17
May/16
Apr/17
May/17
May/16
Apr/17
May/17
CONSTRUCTION
40.6
50.4
50.5
37.7
49.3
49.1
39.7
48.7
48.5
38.4
47.5
48.2
23.2
28.9
28.5
SMALL
44.2
52.8
51.1
41.3
50.1
48.4
41.1
49.8
48.0
41.0
47.7
46.8
21.3
29.2
28.2
MEDIUM
40.4
50.6
50.5
38.0
49.6
48.7
39.8
48.3
48.5
38.3
47.3
47.3
23.1
29.1
29.2
LARGE
39.3
49.4
50.2
36.2
48.8
49.6
39.1
48.6
48.6
37.5
47.6
49.2
23.9
28.6
28.2
1 The indicator varies in the 0%-100% interval. Series started in January 2012. 2 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate growth. 3 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate higherthan-usual activity levels.
i
4 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate positive expectations. 5 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. The higher the figure, the more entrepreneurs are likely to invest.
Learn more
Technical specifications
For more information on the survey, including historical series and methodology, visit: www.cni.org.br/e_sondconstr
Sample profile: 621 enterprises, including 216 small, 271 medium and 134 large companies. Data collection period: May, 2-12, 2017.
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY SURVEY | English version of “Sondagem Indústria da Construção - Abril 2017” | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Unit - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC| Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Flavia Coelho Branco Junqueira Ferraz, Luis Fernando Melo Mendes (CBIC), Roxana Campos and Taryane Carvalho Perne | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic design supervision: Carla Gadêlha | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 – email: [email protected] | This publication may be copied, provided that the source is mentioned.
