Media & Publishing (Digital TV) Industry Update
Neutral
August 5, 2015
New channels’ ratings rose again
Not a good month for old channels Ch7 and Ch3 were still at number 1 and number 2 in the industry, with their ratings having remained flat in July. Other old channels were on a downswing: Ch9: ‐29%, Ch5: ‐31%, Thai PBS: ‐6% and NBT: ‐52%. The losses came after the end of the SEA Games, which were broadcasted on old channels.
Source: Aspen Share data (Media & Publishing) SET index
1,432.16
Sector index
69.22
52‐week high
88.88
52‐week low
67.75
Market capitalization (Bt m)
256,183.69
% of market cap
1.90
Avg daily turnover (m shares)
319.25
Beta
1.72
Sector Performance (%)
1M
3M
12M
Absolute
‐1.48
‐6.93
‐11.39
Relative
1.33
‐1.23
‐4.44
Anapat Wanuschaiyapruk Analyst, no 57076
[email protected] 66 (0) 2-624‐6289
OneHD gained the most, MCOT retreated The rating of OneHD (GRAMMY) rose from 0.194 to 0.245. Its 26% rating gain translates into an increase of 37k average viewers, the highest in the industry. Meanwhile, Ch9’s rating declined 25% to 0.220, a loss of about 50k average viewers. New digital channels seem to be regaining eyeballs after losses in June from the broadcasting of SEA Games on old channels. MONO was in second place after OneHD with its average viewers rising 29k and its rating increasing 16%. The ratings of Workpoint1 and Ch8 (RS) were up 7% and 11%, respectively. Both saw higher average viewers of about 26k.
New BEC channels rising fast We are seeing good developments on the new BEC channels, 3SD and 3Family. 3SD just entered the top ten in June with its TV rating skyrocketing since February (see Figure 4). The current airtime consists of 38% drama/series, 34% variety and 28% news. It uses old drama series to re‐run on the channel. The Mon‐Sat primetime programs are Asian TV series and Sunday primetime is Asia’s Got Talent (the show has been promoted on Ch3’s morning news program). WORK: Turnaround expected (Close Bt36.50) We expect WORK (Buy, 15E TP Bt50.00) to post 2Q15E net profit of Bt47mn, turning around from a loss of Bt11mn in 1Q15 from the movie and magazine business. We expect the top line at Bt515mn, +15% QoQ from Bt427mn, as utilization should increase due to the seasonality effect while the ad rate remained unchanged from the previous quarter. In July, Workpoint1 remained at number 3 with a TV rating of 0.648. The channel gained average viewers of 26k in July and the rating rose 7%. The viewership gain was similar to Ch8 (RS) but since Workpoint1 has a larger audience base, the percentage increase in the TV rating was less than the 11% of Ch8. WORK recently increased its ad rate by another 30% but we have already factored the increase into our forecast. Therefore, our 15E net profit of Bt201mn stands, based on an average ad rate of Bt35,000 per min and average utilization of 75%. MONO: Still making losses (Close Bt2.92) MONO (Underperform, 15E TP Bt3.60) should see another loss quarter as the ad rate and utilization rate are expected to be disappointing. There will also be a negative impact from a reorganization expense, which occurred in the beginning of 2Q15. We expect MONO’s top line at Bt509mn, +9% QoQ, mainly from higher TV revenue while MVAS business is likely to be flat. We forecast a net loss at Bt46mn, +33% QoQ from a net loss of Bt68mn in 1Q15. However, MONO’s financial results will continue to improve together with its ratings. The TV rating in July increased impressively, which will enhance its ability to negotiate for higher ad rates in 2H15. However, there is downside to our 15E forecast as the 2Q15E results might be worse than we initially expected.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 1 of 4
Figure 1: June and July TV ratings (4+, Nationwide, 24 hours)
Channel
Jun
Jul
%
Channel
%
Channel
Jun
Jul
%
0.113
0.106
‐22%
0.049 0.045
0.080
0.095
‐6%
0.090 0.043 ‐52%
‐8%
0%
2.151 2.153
0%
0.608 0.648
7%
0.082
0.093
19%
0.048 0.042 ‐13%
0.350 0.390 11%
0.068
0.087
13%
0.039 0.039
0%
0.284 0.329 16%
0.057
0.070
28%
0.035 0.039
11%
0.194 0.245 26%
0.051
0.057
23%
0.020 0.025
25%
0.292 0.220 ‐25%
0.053
0.055
12%
0.023 0.023
0%
0.051
0.052
4%
0.019 0.020
5%
0.113
0.106
2%
0.015 0.015
0%
0.167 0.116 ‐31%
Jul
2.604 2.600
0.162 0.188 16%
Jun
Source: AGB Nielsen, KT Zmico Figure 2: Ratings of Ch7 and Ch3
Figure 3: Ratings of new digital channels
4
0.7
3.5
0.6
3
0.5
2.5
0.4
2
0.3
1.5
0.2
1
0.1
0.5
WORK
CH3
RS
MONO
OneHD
Source: AGB Nielsen, KT Zmico
Figure 4: Ratings of BEC’s channels
Figure 5: Ratings of Ch5, Ch9, Thai PBS 0.20
2.50
0.15
2.00
07/15
06/15
05/15
3SD
Source: AGB Nielsen, KT Zmico
3.00
04/15
03/15
02/15
01/15
12/14
11/14
10/14
09/14
08/14
07/14
06/14
05/14
07/15
06/15
05/15
04/15
03/15
02/15
01/15
12/14
11/14
10/14
09/14
08/14
07/14
06/14
05/14
04/14
03/14
CH7
04/14
0
0
Thairath
0.6 0.5 0.4
1.50
0.10
1.00
0.05
0.50
0.3 0.2 0.1
CH3 (LHS)
3FAMILY (RHS)
Source: AGB Nielsen, KT Zmico
3SD (RHS)
MCOT
CH5
TPBS
Source: AGB Nielsen, KT Zmico
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 2 of 4
07/15
06/15
05/15
04/15
03/15
02/15
01/15
12/14
11/14
10/14
09/14
08/14
07/14
06/14
05/14
0
04/14
07/15
06/15
05/15
04/15
03/15
02/15
01/15
12/14
11/14
10/14
09/14
08/14
07/14
06/14
05/14
04/14
03/14
0.00
03/14
0.00
WORK: Turnaround expected We forecast revenue at Bt515mn, +20.5% QoQ but ‐16.2% YoY. The drop YoY is mainly due to much lower revenue from event marketing, which was quite high at Bt184mn in 2Q14. Ad revenue from Workpoint1 is the main contributor to the top‐line improvement QoQ; meanwhile, we expect Ching Roi Ching Larn on Ch3 to be flat at Bt70mn, which will be its last quarter before the program is moved to Workpoint1 in July. Our 1H15E net profit is 17.7% of the 15E forecast. We are still confident that we will see a much better result in 2H15E as the company adjusts its ad rate up by 30%. Therefore, our forecast and recommendation stand. Figure 6: WORK’s 2Q15E Earnings preview Profit / Loss Year‐end 30 Sep Revenue Gross profit EBITDA Interest expense Other income Income tax Forex gain (loss) Other extraordinary Items Gn (Ls) from affiliates Net profit (loss) Normalized profit (loss) Reported EPS (THB)
2Q14 614 282 116 (14) 12 (4) 0 0 0 13 13 0.05
1Q15 427 263 110 (11) 16 2 0 0 (10) (11) (11) (0.03)
2Q15E 515 330 170 (8) 10 (5) 0 0 0 47 47 0.16
% YoY (16.2) 17.1 47.0 (43.0) (17.9) 34.9 n.m. n.m. n.m. 274.5 274.5 234.3
% QoQ 20.5 25.4 55.2 (28.5) (38.4) (385.1) n.m. n.m. (100.0) (511.7) (511.7) (663.2)
6M15E 942 593 280 (19) 26 (3) 0 0 (10) 36 36 0.13
FY15E 2,435 1,617 852 (50) 25 (49) 0 0 10 201 201 0.48
% YoY (5.2) 32.3 87.7 (7.4) (27.4) (45.1) n.m. n.m. (223.8) 249.8 n.m. 216.6
YTD (% of FY15E) 38.7 36.7 32.8 38.7 n.m. 6.6 n.m. n.m. (96.0) 17.7 17.7 27.0
Source: WORK, KT ZMICO Research MONO: Still making losses MVAS revenue should be flat at Bt270mn. However, we expect the TV business to continue improving, +32% QoQ from Bt113mn to Bt149mn. Our 2Q15E loss of Bt46mn is caused by an operating loss from the TV business and a reorganization expense that occurred in the beginning of April. While such an expense will last for another two quarters, we will see a net positive impact from 4Q15E onwards. Since improvement of the TV business seems to be slower than we initially expected, there is potential downside to our 15E net profit forecast and TP. Figure 7: MONO’s 2Q15E Earnings preview Profit / Loss Year‐end 30 Sep Revenue Gross profit EBITDA Interest expense Other income Income tax Forex gain (loss) Other extraordinary Items Gn (Ls) from affiliates Net profit (loss) Normalized profit (loss) Reported EPS (THB)
2Q14 356 178 40 (1) 16 20 0 0 0 4 4 0.00
1Q15 466 244 57 (7) 13 10 0 0 0 (68) (68) (0.02)
2Q15E 509 285 85 (7) 10 10 0 0 0 (46) (46) (0.01)
% YoY 43.1 60.5 111.0 422.8 (38.1) (49.9) n.m. n.m. n.m. (1,350.1 (1,350.1 (668.2)
% QoQ 9.4 17.1 49.2 2.2 (25.6) (0.6) n.m. n.m. n.m. (33.0) (33.0) (26.0)
6M15E 975 529 142 (14) 23 20 0 0 0 (114) (114) (0.03)
% YoY 46.7 60.0 66.6 657.2 (35.3) (11.2) n.m. n.m. n.m. (342.6) n.m. (204.0)
FY15E 2,150 1,378 586 (23) 50 (7) 0 0 0 28 28 0.01
YTD (% of FY15E) 45.9 38.6 25.4 60.1 n.m. (179.3) n.m. n.m. n.m. (227.2) (227.2) (212.8)
Source: MONO, KT ZMICO Research REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 3 of 4
DISCLAIMER This document is produced using open sources believed to be reliable. However, their accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The statements and opinions herein were formed after due and careful consideration for use as information for the purposes of investment. The opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The use of any information contained in this document shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.
KT ZMICO RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION DEFINITIONS STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months OUTPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to exceed market return over six months period because of specific catalysts UNDERPERFORM: Expecting total returns between ‐10% to +15%; returns expected to below market return over six months period because of specific catalysts SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 10% or more over the next 12 months
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months.
REFER TO DISCLOSURE SECTION AT THE END OF THE NOTES page 4 of 4
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