Monthly Market Review Report-Feb 2016 GBCM Research Recovery ...
Monthly Market Review Report‐Feb 2016
End Feb 16
End Jan 16
MTD (%)
YTD (%)
5,395.1
5,179.4
4.2%
‐0.2%
6,658.2
6,336.5
5.1%
2.8%
6,614.8
6,529.5
1.3%
‐2.3%
3,056.4
2,902.2
5.3%
0.0%
835.5
816.4
2.3%
‐2.3%
Industrial Index
The month of Feb 2016 saw sharp recovery in the local and regional markets amid relief rally seen in oil prices and also improvement in global market sentiments. We saw more value buyers coming the entire losses for January. DME Oman Crude rose 30% from the lows seen during Jan 2016. The sectoral indices such as Financial, Services, Industrial and Shariah closed higher during the month by
Services Index
5.1%, 1.3%, 5.3% and 2.3% respectively.
Shariah Index
During Feb 2016, we saw smart recovery in most of the GCC markets with UAE‐DFM gaining 8%, ADX +7%, Oman and Qatar +4%. We saw institutional buying activity in most of the regional frontline
MSM 30 Index‐ Feb 2016
stocks amid the valuation attractiveness. On the other hand, we saw S&P downgrade of Oman, Saudi and Bahrain during last month, which would impact in the form of additional costs for the upcoming
5,500
Government borrowing program. Moody’s had also downgraded Oman ratings during the month.
5,400
Market activity for Feb 2016: Overall traded volumes for the month stood at 437 million, while the
5,300
total market turnover stood at RO 92.341 million. Average daily market turnover in MSM for Feb
5,200
2016 increased to RO 4.4 million as compared to RO 3.7 million in the previous month. On the
5,100
2/29/2016
2/28/2016
2/27/2016
2/26/2016
2/25/2016
2/24/2016
2/23/2016
2/22/2016
2/21/2016
2/20/2016
2/19/2016
2/18/2016
2/17/2016
2/16/2016
2/15/2016
2/14/2016
2/13/2016
2/12/2016
2/11/2016
2/9/2016
2/10/2016
2/8/2016
2/7/2016
2/6/2016
2/5/2016
2/4/2016
2/3/2016
2/2/2016
participation side, Foreign and GCC Investors remained as net sellers to an extent of RO 12.867 2/1/2016
GBCM Research
into the market post sharp correction seen. MSM Index ended the month higher by 4.2% recouping
Financial Index
5,000
MSM30 Index
Recovery rally seen amid gain in oil prices and improved sentiments…
March 10, 2016
Index Performance
million and RO 1.935 million respectively for the month. Omani Investors emerged as net buyers to
an extent of RO 14.687 million.
MSM Trading – Monthly Turnover – RO 92.341 million (USD 239.2 million)
March 2016 Outlook‐ to see dividend adjustments, rally to remain oil driven... We anticipate the local and the regional markets to see positive sentiments during first half of March
Fig. In RO
Buy
Sell
Net Buy / (Sell)
ahead of the peak dividends season along with the improvement in the global oil prices and better
82,686,739
67,999,515
14,687,225
market sentiments. Added March would be the month of dividend adjustments which would have a
3,646,974
5,582,113
(1,935,139)
1,292,774
1,177,870
114,904
test recent highs. In Oman we expect the dividend related correction to kick start with most of the
4,714,824
17,581,813
(12,866,990)
major AGMs (dividend cut off dates) scheduled during second half of March. On the technical front,
Omanis GCC
Arabs
Others Source: MSM, GBCM Research 1 | P a g e
say on the market directions. We do see the Institutional buying to prevail in fundamentally strong names looking at medium term. Technically the regional equities reveals a positive break out and to
MSM Index to see resistance closer to 5,406 levels and the support is seen at 5,290 points. End Feb 2016, MSM30 Index is trading at PE (Ann.) of 10X, PBV of 1.2X and Div. Yield at 5.4%.
Monthly Market Review Report‐Feb 2016
Volume Leaders for the Month 60,000
35.0%
9.8%
10.0%
9.1%
11.2%
GBCM Research
Gainers for the Month
12.0%
30.0%
50,000 7.8%
8.0%
7.0%
31.5% 27.5%
27.4%
26.9%
25.0%
40,000
19.0%
20.0%
6.0%
30,000
4.0%
20,000
2.0%
10,000
5.0%
0
0.0%
15.0%
0.0% Al Anwar Hldg
Galfar
Bank Nizwa
Bank Sohar
10.0%
Renaissance
Bank Muscat
United Power
Oman United Ins
Port Services
Value Leaders for the Month 16.0%
Losers for the Month 16,000
14.6%
14.0%
14,000
12.0%
12,000
9.3%
10.0%
8.6%
8.0%
0.0% ‐2.0% ‐4.0%
10,000 8.1% 8,000 5.8%
6.0%
4,000
2.0%
2,000
0.0%
‐6.0%
6,000
4.0%
Source: MSM, GBCM Research 2 | P a g e
Omantel
Sembcorp Salalah
‐5.3% ‐6.7%
‐8.0% ‐8.9%
‐10.0%
0
Bank Muscat Al Anwar Hldg
Oman And Emi Inv. Hol
‐10.0%
‐9.9%
Oman Nat Engg. Invt.
Takaful Oman
‐12.0%
Bank Sohar
Source: MSM, GBCM Research
Al Jazeera Steel Alizz Islamic Bank
Ahli Bank
Monthly Market Review Report‐Feb 2016
Markets Performance ‐ Heat Map
GCC Markets Oman Saudi UAE (DFM)
GBCM Research
Commodities Performance ‐ Heat Map MTD (%)
YTD (%) Energy
4.2%
‐0.2%
1.6%
‐11.9%
8.1%
2.8%
UAE (ADX)
7.3%
1.0%
Kuwait
1.8%
‐7.3%
Qatar
4.3%
‐5.1%
Bahrain
‐0.7%
‐3.1%
Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research
MTD (%)
YTD (%)
NYMEX WTI Crude
‐4.3%
‐13.7%
ICE Brent Crude
‐0.7%
‐7.2%
Crude Oil, Oman
0.2%
‐6.1%
NYMEX Natural Gas
‐26.6%
‐28.3%
NYMEX Gasoline
‐2.1%
‐12.6%
MTD (%)
YTD (%)
Gold Spot
10.8%
16.7%
Silver Spot
4.5%
7.5%
Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research
Global Markets S&P 500
MTD (%)
YTD (%)
‐0.4%
‐5.5%
Dow Jones
0.3%
‐5.2%
Nasdaq FTSE 100 CAC 40
‐1.2%
‐9.0%
0.2%
‐2.3%
Platinum Spot
7.3%
4.6%
‐1.4%
‐6.1%
LME Aluminium (Spot)
5.1%
6.4%
DAX
‐3.1%
‐11.6%
LME Copper (Spot)
3.0%
0.0%
Nikkei Hang Seng Sensex
‐8.5%
‐15.8%
‐2.9%
‐12.8%
LME Zinc (Spot)
8.0%
10.4%
‐7.5%
‐11.9%
LME Lead (Spot)
2.0%
‐2.3%
Shanghai
‐1.8%
‐24.1%
LME Nickel (Spot)
‐1.1%
‐3.3%
Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research
3 | P a g e
Precious/ Base Metals
Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research
Monthly Market Review Report‐Feb 2016
GBCM Research
| Institutional Sales ‐ Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2479 0614‐559 |Institutional Brokerage ‐ Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2479 0614 ‐560 | | Equity Research ‐ Kanaga Sundar, (+968) 2479 0614 ‐534 | Vijay Sridharan, (+968) 2479 0614 ‐ 533 | Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by GULF BAADER CAPITAL MARKETS SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither GULF BAADER CAPITAL MARKETS SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein.
4 | P a g e
End Feb 16
End Jan 16
MTD (%)
YTD (%)
5,395.1
5,179.4
4.2%
‐0.2%
6,658.2
6,336.5
5.1%
2.8%
6,614.8
6,529.5
1.3%
‐2.3%
3,056.4
2,902.2
5.3%
0.0%
835.5
816.4
2.3%
‐2.3%
Industrial Index
The month of Feb 2016 saw sharp recovery in the local and regional markets amid relief rally seen in oil prices and also improvement in global market sentiments. We saw more value buyers coming the entire losses for January. DME Oman Crude rose 30% from the lows seen during Jan 2016. The sectoral indices such as Financial, Services, Industrial and Shariah closed higher during the month by
Services Index
5.1%, 1.3%, 5.3% and 2.3% respectively.
Shariah Index
During Feb 2016, we saw smart recovery in most of the GCC markets with UAE‐DFM gaining 8%, ADX +7%, Oman and Qatar +4%. We saw institutional buying activity in most of the regional frontline
MSM 30 Index‐ Feb 2016
stocks amid the valuation attractiveness. On the other hand, we saw S&P downgrade of Oman, Saudi and Bahrain during last month, which would impact in the form of additional costs for the upcoming
5,500
Government borrowing program. Moody’s had also downgraded Oman ratings during the month.
5,400
Market activity for Feb 2016: Overall traded volumes for the month stood at 437 million, while the
5,300
total market turnover stood at RO 92.341 million. Average daily market turnover in MSM for Feb
5,200
2016 increased to RO 4.4 million as compared to RO 3.7 million in the previous month. On the
5,100
2/29/2016
2/28/2016
2/27/2016
2/26/2016
2/25/2016
2/24/2016
2/23/2016
2/22/2016
2/21/2016
2/20/2016
2/19/2016
2/18/2016
2/17/2016
2/16/2016
2/15/2016
2/14/2016
2/13/2016
2/12/2016
2/11/2016
2/9/2016
2/10/2016
2/8/2016
2/7/2016
2/6/2016
2/5/2016
2/4/2016
2/3/2016
2/2/2016
participation side, Foreign and GCC Investors remained as net sellers to an extent of RO 12.867 2/1/2016
GBCM Research
into the market post sharp correction seen. MSM Index ended the month higher by 4.2% recouping
Financial Index
5,000
MSM30 Index
Recovery rally seen amid gain in oil prices and improved sentiments…
March 10, 2016
Index Performance
million and RO 1.935 million respectively for the month. Omani Investors emerged as net buyers to
an extent of RO 14.687 million.
MSM Trading – Monthly Turnover – RO 92.341 million (USD 239.2 million)
March 2016 Outlook‐ to see dividend adjustments, rally to remain oil driven... We anticipate the local and the regional markets to see positive sentiments during first half of March
Fig. In RO
Buy
Sell
Net Buy / (Sell)
ahead of the peak dividends season along with the improvement in the global oil prices and better
82,686,739
67,999,515
14,687,225
market sentiments. Added March would be the month of dividend adjustments which would have a
3,646,974
5,582,113
(1,935,139)
1,292,774
1,177,870
114,904
test recent highs. In Oman we expect the dividend related correction to kick start with most of the
4,714,824
17,581,813
(12,866,990)
major AGMs (dividend cut off dates) scheduled during second half of March. On the technical front,
Omanis GCC
Arabs
Others Source: MSM, GBCM Research 1 | P a g e
say on the market directions. We do see the Institutional buying to prevail in fundamentally strong names looking at medium term. Technically the regional equities reveals a positive break out and to
MSM Index to see resistance closer to 5,406 levels and the support is seen at 5,290 points. End Feb 2016, MSM30 Index is trading at PE (Ann.) of 10X, PBV of 1.2X and Div. Yield at 5.4%.
Monthly Market Review Report‐Feb 2016
Volume Leaders for the Month 60,000
35.0%
9.8%
10.0%
9.1%
11.2%
GBCM Research
Gainers for the Month
12.0%
30.0%
50,000 7.8%
8.0%
7.0%
31.5% 27.5%
27.4%
26.9%
25.0%
40,000
19.0%
20.0%
6.0%
30,000
4.0%
20,000
2.0%
10,000
5.0%
0
0.0%
15.0%
0.0% Al Anwar Hldg
Galfar
Bank Nizwa
Bank Sohar
10.0%
Renaissance
Bank Muscat
United Power
Oman United Ins
Port Services
Value Leaders for the Month 16.0%
Losers for the Month 16,000
14.6%
14.0%
14,000
12.0%
12,000
9.3%
10.0%
8.6%
8.0%
0.0% ‐2.0% ‐4.0%
10,000 8.1% 8,000 5.8%
6.0%
4,000
2.0%
2,000
0.0%
‐6.0%
6,000
4.0%
Source: MSM, GBCM Research 2 | P a g e
Omantel
Sembcorp Salalah
‐5.3% ‐6.7%
‐8.0% ‐8.9%
‐10.0%
0
Bank Muscat Al Anwar Hldg
Oman And Emi Inv. Hol
‐10.0%
‐9.9%
Oman Nat Engg. Invt.
Takaful Oman
‐12.0%
Bank Sohar
Source: MSM, GBCM Research
Al Jazeera Steel Alizz Islamic Bank
Ahli Bank
Monthly Market Review Report‐Feb 2016
Markets Performance ‐ Heat Map
GCC Markets Oman Saudi UAE (DFM)
GBCM Research
Commodities Performance ‐ Heat Map MTD (%)
YTD (%) Energy
4.2%
‐0.2%
1.6%
‐11.9%
8.1%
2.8%
UAE (ADX)
7.3%
1.0%
Kuwait
1.8%
‐7.3%
Qatar
4.3%
‐5.1%
Bahrain
‐0.7%
‐3.1%
Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research
MTD (%)
YTD (%)
NYMEX WTI Crude
‐4.3%
‐13.7%
ICE Brent Crude
‐0.7%
‐7.2%
Crude Oil, Oman
0.2%
‐6.1%
NYMEX Natural Gas
‐26.6%
‐28.3%
NYMEX Gasoline
‐2.1%
‐12.6%
MTD (%)
YTD (%)
Gold Spot
10.8%
16.7%
Silver Spot
4.5%
7.5%
Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research
Global Markets S&P 500
MTD (%)
YTD (%)
‐0.4%
‐5.5%
Dow Jones
0.3%
‐5.2%
Nasdaq FTSE 100 CAC 40
‐1.2%
‐9.0%
0.2%
‐2.3%
Platinum Spot
7.3%
4.6%
‐1.4%
‐6.1%
LME Aluminium (Spot)
5.1%
6.4%
DAX
‐3.1%
‐11.6%
LME Copper (Spot)
3.0%
0.0%
Nikkei Hang Seng Sensex
‐8.5%
‐15.8%
‐2.9%
‐12.8%
LME Zinc (Spot)
8.0%
10.4%
‐7.5%
‐11.9%
LME Lead (Spot)
2.0%
‐2.3%
Shanghai
‐1.8%
‐24.1%
LME Nickel (Spot)
‐1.1%
‐3.3%
Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research
3 | P a g e
Precious/ Base Metals
Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research
Monthly Market Review Report‐Feb 2016
GBCM Research
| Institutional Sales ‐ Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2479 0614‐559 |Institutional Brokerage ‐ Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2479 0614 ‐560 | | Equity Research ‐ Kanaga Sundar, (+968) 2479 0614 ‐534 | Vijay Sridharan, (+968) 2479 0614 ‐ 533 | Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by GULF BAADER CAPITAL MARKETS SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither GULF BAADER CAPITAL MARKETS SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein.
4 | P a g e
