Planalytics GreenReport 09132017
Green Produced in collaboration with TerraMetrics Agriculture, Inc. Issued: September 13, 2017
Vegetation Index Greenness Map Period 37: August 29 – September 11, 2017
GREENNESS VALUES
4
Low Biomass
2 1 3
High Biomass
Water Clouds/Snow
Harvesting of summer crops has begun in some areas and Hurricanes Harvey and Irma have also affected this week’s Greenness map. Check out page 2 for changes in biomass from last week and normal.
the region, crop health has the potential to decline as we near maturity and harvest.
2) Northern Tier Crops ‘Creeping Along’. Given the cooler temperature regime the past several weeks, we continue to track slower maturing crops. Considerable Growing Degree Day deficits are noted 1) Dryness Concerns Mounting in the across many northern states, the largest Plains, Western Corn Belt. After what has generally been a season of ample moisture deficits found in North and South Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Deficits are – too much, in fact for southeast Texas – also in place further east in Ohio and conditions have turned quite dry from the rest of Texas north into Missouri and Iowa Pennsylvania. A much warmer trend this week, however, should help improve the with most locations seeing little if any rain pace. over the past 2 weeks. Fortunately, soil moisture reserves have been pretty good 3) Irma’s Flooding Rains Delaying Field but even that trend is changing as well. It’s imperative that we get enough moisture to Operations and Harvest. Hurricane Irma is one for the record books. Having made get crops to the finish line, but another landfall as a Category 4 storm in the week of dry weather ahead will put further Florida Keys, it brought winds up to pressure on the finishing crop. Combined 130mph in south Florida. As it traversed with summer-like temperatures returning to north through the Sunshine state, it brought 7- DAY RAINFALL ACCUMULATION September 13-20, 2017
tropical storm winds into the Southeast as far north and west as Memphis. Rain amounts were staggering in Florida, up to 20 inches in some areas. Heavy rain fell further north in Georgia, Alabama, and South Carolina with 4 to 8 inches common across the region. Fields are flooded and will take some time to dry out. 4) Western Wetness on the Way. Producers and ranchers in the West have been dealing with a very challenging summer given the persistently hot and dry weather. Drought has been exploding, soil moisture is depleted, and crops and grasses are taking a beating. Wildfires are numerous. However, there is good news on the way. Mother Nature is flipping the switch starting this week as a cooler and wetter regime will settle in. Periods of rain and even some mountain snow will help to replenish depleted soils; cooler temps will help to relax the stress on biomass.
Seven Day Forecast After a fall-like respite the past 2-3 weeks, strong heat has returned to the Plains with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. This late summer surge will push further east this week encompassing most Corn Belt states. This should help to accelerate lagging summer crop development as this warmer air mass makes its way into the Northeast by the weekend. Conversely, a long-awaited cool-down is coming to the western states and will continue into next week. This should help to decrease stress on plants as well as people and allow firefighters to get a handle on the numerous wildfires across the West. The remnants of Hurricane – now Tropical Storm Irma – will bring moisture to eastern regions through tomorrow before bringing a much drier trend into early next week. Meanwhile, a Pacific storm system will bring much needed precipitation to the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and western Dakotas, a large area that has been plagued by drought. While not expected to break the drought, 1 to 3 inches of rain from Washington and Oregon east through Montana and the Dakotas will be helpful. Snowfall is even forecast to fall above 10,000 feet in the Northern Rockies. However, much of the Corn Belt region south into the southern Plains will be on the drier side of normal, continuing a troubling trend over the past couple of weeks.
© 2017 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
www.planalytics.com | 800.882.5881
Green Produced in collaboration with TerraMetrics Agriculture, Inc.
Vegetation Index Greenness Map Period 37: August 29 – September 11, 2017 COMPARED TO LAST WEEK
COMPARED TO NORMAL
DIFFERENCE IN PLANT BIOMASS (NDVI) VALUES Increased Greenness
Little or no change
Decreased Greenness
Water Snow/ Clouds
Compared to Last Week
Compared to Normal
A strong Greenness increase is noted in Texas and across the lower Delta but frankly much of this is in conjunction with receding Harvey floodwaters and a return to a vibrant biomass. Despite some recent dryness, soil moisture is generally good across the entire region which has been good news as crops head to the finish line and harvest. A decreased Greenness signature is rather widespread in the Corn Belt states. It is likely a result of ‘browning down’ of summer crops which has been accelerated by a very dry trend in the past 2 weeks. There are growing concerns about reduced yield potential as a result of these dry conditions. Little if any rainfall in the coming week will exacerbate those concerns. Hot, dry conditions continued in the Pacific Northwest east to Montana, continuing to increase stress levels on biomass. There is good news in the forecast as cooler weather along with scattered showers are possible. Biomass improvement is evident in portions of California and the adjacent area given a good week of moisture from an upper low and monsoon moisture. Still, soils are quite dry. Cooler conditions in the week ahead should help to decrease stress on crops and grasslands. Hurricane Irma’s impact on Florida and the Southeast is not yet seen but could produce negative impacts in the near term given areas of severe flooding.
Against our 28-year average of Greenness (NDVI) data, current Greenness trends remain very regional with little change in overall trends. Biomass in Texas and the Delta has rebounded nicely after the massive flooding associated with Hurricane Harvey. Greenness is looking very robust with plentiful moisture and healthy crops with good yield potential. While quite dry of late, much of the Western Corn Belt is displaying above normal Greenness. However, also note that the trend has been declining and more moisture is needed to keep the crop on target for a healthy finish. Unfortunately, a week of dry weather ahead won’t help. Yield potential could be on the decline. In the Eastern Corn Belt and Northeast, crops are increasingly running behind schedule given the persistent cooler than typical temperatures. A warmer trend by the upcoming weekend should help to accelerate lagging GDDs. A good portion of the Western states continue to deal with the negative impacts associated with the very hot and (mostly dry) summer, particularly in the Pacific Northwest. Drought intensity has been increasing and crop health has been suffering as noted below in the latest Vegetation Condition map. A cooldown with the possibility of showers in the coming week will be a help.
Produced in collaboration with our partners at TerraMetrics Agriculture, Inc., this Vegetation Condition Map is based on input from current satellite NDVI composites, combined with 28-year maximum and minimum temperature values. The model takes the current NDVI and Temp values and compares them to the historic data to illustrate current conditions where: Higher Temps and Lower NDVI values = Stress Conditions Lower Temps and Higher NDVI values = Good Conditions © 2017 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
www.planalytics.com | 800.882.5881
Vegetation Index Greenness Map Period 37: August 29 – September 11, 2017
GREENNESS VALUES
4
Low Biomass
2 1 3
High Biomass
Water Clouds/Snow
Harvesting of summer crops has begun in some areas and Hurricanes Harvey and Irma have also affected this week’s Greenness map. Check out page 2 for changes in biomass from last week and normal.
the region, crop health has the potential to decline as we near maturity and harvest.
2) Northern Tier Crops ‘Creeping Along’. Given the cooler temperature regime the past several weeks, we continue to track slower maturing crops. Considerable Growing Degree Day deficits are noted 1) Dryness Concerns Mounting in the across many northern states, the largest Plains, Western Corn Belt. After what has generally been a season of ample moisture deficits found in North and South Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Deficits are – too much, in fact for southeast Texas – also in place further east in Ohio and conditions have turned quite dry from the rest of Texas north into Missouri and Iowa Pennsylvania. A much warmer trend this week, however, should help improve the with most locations seeing little if any rain pace. over the past 2 weeks. Fortunately, soil moisture reserves have been pretty good 3) Irma’s Flooding Rains Delaying Field but even that trend is changing as well. It’s imperative that we get enough moisture to Operations and Harvest. Hurricane Irma is one for the record books. Having made get crops to the finish line, but another landfall as a Category 4 storm in the week of dry weather ahead will put further Florida Keys, it brought winds up to pressure on the finishing crop. Combined 130mph in south Florida. As it traversed with summer-like temperatures returning to north through the Sunshine state, it brought 7- DAY RAINFALL ACCUMULATION September 13-20, 2017
tropical storm winds into the Southeast as far north and west as Memphis. Rain amounts were staggering in Florida, up to 20 inches in some areas. Heavy rain fell further north in Georgia, Alabama, and South Carolina with 4 to 8 inches common across the region. Fields are flooded and will take some time to dry out. 4) Western Wetness on the Way. Producers and ranchers in the West have been dealing with a very challenging summer given the persistently hot and dry weather. Drought has been exploding, soil moisture is depleted, and crops and grasses are taking a beating. Wildfires are numerous. However, there is good news on the way. Mother Nature is flipping the switch starting this week as a cooler and wetter regime will settle in. Periods of rain and even some mountain snow will help to replenish depleted soils; cooler temps will help to relax the stress on biomass.
Seven Day Forecast After a fall-like respite the past 2-3 weeks, strong heat has returned to the Plains with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. This late summer surge will push further east this week encompassing most Corn Belt states. This should help to accelerate lagging summer crop development as this warmer air mass makes its way into the Northeast by the weekend. Conversely, a long-awaited cool-down is coming to the western states and will continue into next week. This should help to decrease stress on plants as well as people and allow firefighters to get a handle on the numerous wildfires across the West. The remnants of Hurricane – now Tropical Storm Irma – will bring moisture to eastern regions through tomorrow before bringing a much drier trend into early next week. Meanwhile, a Pacific storm system will bring much needed precipitation to the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and western Dakotas, a large area that has been plagued by drought. While not expected to break the drought, 1 to 3 inches of rain from Washington and Oregon east through Montana and the Dakotas will be helpful. Snowfall is even forecast to fall above 10,000 feet in the Northern Rockies. However, much of the Corn Belt region south into the southern Plains will be on the drier side of normal, continuing a troubling trend over the past couple of weeks.
© 2017 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
www.planalytics.com | 800.882.5881
Green Produced in collaboration with TerraMetrics Agriculture, Inc.
Vegetation Index Greenness Map Period 37: August 29 – September 11, 2017 COMPARED TO LAST WEEK
COMPARED TO NORMAL
DIFFERENCE IN PLANT BIOMASS (NDVI) VALUES Increased Greenness
Little or no change
Decreased Greenness
Water Snow/ Clouds
Compared to Last Week
Compared to Normal
A strong Greenness increase is noted in Texas and across the lower Delta but frankly much of this is in conjunction with receding Harvey floodwaters and a return to a vibrant biomass. Despite some recent dryness, soil moisture is generally good across the entire region which has been good news as crops head to the finish line and harvest. A decreased Greenness signature is rather widespread in the Corn Belt states. It is likely a result of ‘browning down’ of summer crops which has been accelerated by a very dry trend in the past 2 weeks. There are growing concerns about reduced yield potential as a result of these dry conditions. Little if any rainfall in the coming week will exacerbate those concerns. Hot, dry conditions continued in the Pacific Northwest east to Montana, continuing to increase stress levels on biomass. There is good news in the forecast as cooler weather along with scattered showers are possible. Biomass improvement is evident in portions of California and the adjacent area given a good week of moisture from an upper low and monsoon moisture. Still, soils are quite dry. Cooler conditions in the week ahead should help to decrease stress on crops and grasslands. Hurricane Irma’s impact on Florida and the Southeast is not yet seen but could produce negative impacts in the near term given areas of severe flooding.
Against our 28-year average of Greenness (NDVI) data, current Greenness trends remain very regional with little change in overall trends. Biomass in Texas and the Delta has rebounded nicely after the massive flooding associated with Hurricane Harvey. Greenness is looking very robust with plentiful moisture and healthy crops with good yield potential. While quite dry of late, much of the Western Corn Belt is displaying above normal Greenness. However, also note that the trend has been declining and more moisture is needed to keep the crop on target for a healthy finish. Unfortunately, a week of dry weather ahead won’t help. Yield potential could be on the decline. In the Eastern Corn Belt and Northeast, crops are increasingly running behind schedule given the persistent cooler than typical temperatures. A warmer trend by the upcoming weekend should help to accelerate lagging GDDs. A good portion of the Western states continue to deal with the negative impacts associated with the very hot and (mostly dry) summer, particularly in the Pacific Northwest. Drought intensity has been increasing and crop health has been suffering as noted below in the latest Vegetation Condition map. A cooldown with the possibility of showers in the coming week will be a help.
Produced in collaboration with our partners at TerraMetrics Agriculture, Inc., this Vegetation Condition Map is based on input from current satellite NDVI composites, combined with 28-year maximum and minimum temperature values. The model takes the current NDVI and Temp values and compares them to the historic data to illustrate current conditions where: Higher Temps and Lower NDVI values = Stress Conditions Lower Temps and Higher NDVI values = Good Conditions © 2017 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
www.planalytics.com | 800.882.5881
