Planalytics FlashWeather Report
LAST WEEK: March 15, 2015 – March 21, 2015 (Retail Week 7 / March Week 3) March Madness! Extreme Warmth in the West and Volatile Temperatures in the East Resulted in a Favorable Week to Last Year. Ol' Man Winter Spoiled The First Day of Spring in the East. A Wet Week in Canada.
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
Retail Foot Traffic WDD
2015
2014 Change Normal
City
2015
2014 Change Normal
Duluth, MN
36.2
20.7
15.5
28.8
Jackson, MS
2.84
0.48
2.36
1.10
Minneapolis, MN
42.2
27.4
14.8
35.8
Houston, TX
1.63
0.00
1.63
0.68
+6.0%
Aspen, CO
43.9
29.4
14.5
34.5
Midland, TX
1.51
0.00
1.51
0.13
+4.0% +3.7%
Billings, MT
49.3
35.3
14.0
40.6
Seattle, WA
2.58
1.12
1.46
0.72
+2.0%
Green Bay, WI
40.7
27.0
13.8
34.9
Shreveport, LA
1.46
0.00
1.46
0.91
Binghamton, NY
28.6
28.9
-0.3
35.0
Birmingham, AL
0.38
1.61
-1.23
1.10
New York City, NY
38.5
39.6
-1.1
43.8
Charlotte, NC
0.21
1.63
-1.42
1.00
Midland, TX
55.7
57.9
-2.2
59.6
Jacksonville, FL
0.61
2.42
-1.81
0.87
-4.0%
Boston, MA
31.9
34.1
-2.2
39.2
Orlando, FL
0.00
2.07
-2.07
1.00
-6.0%
El Paso, TX
58.7
61.7
-3.0
60.1
Pensacola, FL
0.05
2.74
-2.69
1.33
-8.0%
2015
2014 Change Normal
Winnipeg
City
-1.0
-9.7
8.7
-5.6
Vancouver
City
2015 59
2014 Change Normal 17
42
Edmonton
-0.3
-5.4
5.1
-5.8
Edmonton
9
2
7
3
Toronto
1.2
-3.5
4.7
1.6
Quebec City
20
16
5
15
Calgary
1.2
-2.5
3.7
-1.6
Calgary
5
6
-1
4
25
Vancouver
8.8
5.8
3.0
6.5
Montreal
11
14
-3
13
Ottawa
-4.0
-6.4
2.3
-1.2
Winnipeg
0
5
-5
3
Quebec City
-9.2
-10.2
1.0
-3.5
Toronto
4
9
-5
10
Montreal
-5.0
-4.9
-0.1
-0.8
Ottawa
9
16
-7
12
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
+0.0%
-2.0%
+2.8%
+0.6%
-2.5%
4-Apr
28-Mar
21-Mar
14-Mar
7-Mar
-6.2%
28-Feb
• Last year was colder than normal although warmth was focused in the West. Rainfall was above normal while snowfall was below normal. St. Patrick's Day was much colder than normal with below normal rain and snow. • Warmer Than Last Year Driven by the West. Nationally, it was the warmest 3rd week of March since 2012. Vancouver was the warmest since 1995 and Edmonton since 2010. Conversely, Montreal was the coldest since 1997, hindering demand for Spring categories. St. Patrick’s Day was the warmest since 2012 and the wettest since 2011, with the most snow since 2007. • Snowy and Wet. Despite warmer temperatures to last year, conditions were cold and wet enough to result in the most snowfall for week 3 of March in over 55 years, stifling Spring demand. Halifax had the most snow since 1976 and Vancouver since 2009. Rainfall was also well above last year, and the most for week 3 of March since 2000. Vancouver was the wettest since 2007. MEAN TEMPERATURE (°C) PRECIPITATION (mm) Period of Record: Mar 15 2015 to Mar 21 2015 Period of Record: Mar 15 2015 to Mar 21 2015
+2.2% +0.6% +0.3%
21-Feb
Canada Summary and Callouts
(Actuals for last 6 weeks. Outlook for next 2 weeks.)
14-Feb
City
Compared to the Same Week Last Year
Temperature
• Weekend Review: Cooler than normal temperatures blanketed the Northeast and Ohio River Valley while warmer than normal temperatures continued from the Great Plains to the West Coast. Temperatures were cooler than normal over the Great Lakes and Northeast, while they were warmer than last year. Rainfall was focused in the Pacific Northwest, the Central Rockies, Texas, and along the Gulf Coast. • Last year, temperatures trended colder than normal, although strong warmth was focused in the West. Rainfall was the least in 3 years coupled with below normal snowfall. St. Patrick's Day was the coldest since 1993, with the most snowfall since 2007. • Coast to Coast Warmth. Last week was the warmest 3rd week of March since 2012, with all regions of the country trending warmer than last year. Strong warmth remained in the West as the Mountain and Pacific regions both had their warmest 3rd week of March in over 55 years. LA, San Diego, Las Vegas, and Salt Lake City each had their warmest 3rd week of March in over 55 years. Portland, OR was warmest since 1972 and Seattle was warmest since 1995, fueling demand for Spring product. In the Southeast, Orlando was warmest in over 55 years and New Orleans was warmest in over 30 years. Conversely, Boston was the only major city with notable cold, as the city recorded its coldest 3rd week of March since 1993. • Luck of the Irish Brought a Taste of Spring! St. Patrick's Day was the warmest since 2012 and much warmer than LY. It was the driest since 2011, getting consumers out and about to celebrate the holiday. • Spring Snow! Snow blanketed the Mid-Atlantic region on the first day of Spring. NYC set a daily record with 4.6 inches of snow; moderate amounts also fell from Philadelphia to Baltimore. While snow was quick to melt, wintry precipitation fueled the anticipation for Spring in weather-weary consumers. • Save the Showers for April. Overall it was the driest 3rd week of March since 2011 with rainfall slightly less than last year and well below normal. Cincinnati had its driest 3rd week of March in 20 years. Rainfall was heavy in the South Central and Pacific Northwest regions. Seattle was wettest since 1997. MEAN TEMPERATURE (°F) PRECIPITATION (Inches) Period of Record: Mar 15 2015 to Mar 21 2015 Period of Record: Mar 15 2015 to Mar 21 2015
Precipitation
U.S. Summary and Callouts
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category WDDs represent the % change in demand of the product/category, based purely on the year-over-year change in weather.
BARBECUE GRILLING North America +18% Denver +35% Cincinnati +29% Los Angeles +6% Houston -2%
SUNCARE North America +14% New Orleans +29% Detroit +25% San Diego +16% Miami +3%
SHORTS North America +11% Dallas +30% Winnipeg +10% Seattle +9% Boston -3%
SPORTS DRINKS North America +7% Atlanta +23% Salt Lake City +17% Orlando +6% New York City -3%
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
THIS WEEK: March 22, 2015 – March 28, 2015 (Retail Week 8 / March Week 4) A Warm Week to LY Across North America Will Support Spring Seasonal Categories. Above Normal Warmth Focused in the West and South, Cooler Northeast and Eastern Canada. A Mixed Bag of Precipitation.
Precipitation vs. LY
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
Ice
Snow
• Last year the U.S. had its coldest 4th week of March since 2006 with the most rainfall in 5 years. Snowfall was well above normal due to a mid-week storm in the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions. Canada had its coldest week 4 of March since 1965, and snowiest since 1982. Rainfall was near normal. • Spring is Slow to Arrive in the East. The northeastern U.S. will be cooler than normal for the first half of the week; struggling to reach 30°F near the Canadian border and 40°F from the Great Lakes to New England. Despite the cool conditions, temperatures in these markets will still trend warmer than LY, providing growth opportunities for year-over-year demand of Spring categories. Expect a brief warm-up into the mid-to-upper 50s on Thursday. Cooler temperatures to LY and normal will settle in across most eastern markets by the weekend, limiting demand for lawn care products and Spring apparel. • The West is Best for Seasonal Product. The western U.S. will continue to see very warm conditions versus normal and last year. Temperatures will reach the 70s in the Pacific Northwest and 80s across much of California. Areas in the Desert Southwest will see thermometers climb into the 90s.The warmer temperatures will extend into the Plains until mid-week when a cold front briefly pushes temperatures below normal and LY throughout the region. • Wintry Precipitation Isn’t Over Yet. Storms will bring light rain and wet snow from the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Plains and southern Canadian Prairies. This will generate snow and rain from the Upper Midwest to the interior Northeast. • Dual Storm Track Continues. A pair of storm systems will track across the southern U.S. from Texas to the Carolinas generating locally heavy rain and thunderstorms. Severe weather is likely across the Central Plains. Persistent rain will cause minor flooding across saturated regions of the Deep South. Expect healthy demand for wiper blades, sump pumps, and rainwear. • Canada Warmer Than LY, Cooler Than Normal in the East. Temperatures for much of the country will be warmer than normal and LY, supporting year-overyear demand for Spring categories. Colder than normal temperatures will be focused across eastern Canada, including Toronto and Montreal.
Temperature vs. LY
This Week Outlook & Callouts
Light Medium Heavy
Ice
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category UNITED STATES Pest Control +24%
CANADA Lawn Tools +27%
Bicycles
+10%
Sandals
+9%
Fleece
Swimwear
+16% -4%
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
Light Medium Heavy
Ice
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category UNITED STATES Sandals +5%
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Precipitation vs LY
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
Ice
• Last year the U.S. had its warmest end to March since 2012 with the most rainfall since 2011. Snowfall exceeded normal levels due to a mid-week storm in the Upper Midwest, Rockies, and interior Northeast regions. Canada had its coldest 5th week of March since 2007 with the most rainfall since 2009. Snowfall was well above normal and the most since 2007. • Warmth Continues Across the Plains and West. Markets from the Central Plains to the West Coast will continue to trend warmer than LY and normal. Expect strong demand for pool chemicals, lawn care categories, and other outdoor products. • Cooler than Last Year in the East. The eastern U.S. will start the week off on the cool side and will become colder still as another shot of Canadian air rushes into the region mid-week. Most of the East will average well below last year and normal. The South Central region will also trend cooler than last year and normal for the majority of the week. These conditions will limit demand for Spring merchandise. Florida remains the exception with temperatures warmer than LY and normal. • Rain and Mountain Snow. Light snow will track across the Northern Tier while rain and thunderstorms will persist across the South. More rain and mountain snow will extend from the Pacific Northwest across the Northern Rockies and into the Plains. Canada is Cool in the East, Warm in the West. Cooler temperatures to LY and normal continue in eastern Canada, limiting demand for seasonal products. The Canadian Prairies and majority of British Columbia will trend warmer than LY and normal throughout the week. Precipitation will be active across the country.
Snow
Next Week Outlook & Callouts
Temperature vs LY
NEXT WEEK: March 29, 2015 – April 4, 2015 (Retail Week 9 / March Week 5) The Run-Up Week to Easter Will Feature Warmer Temperatures to LY and Normal Across the Western Half of North America, While Cool Conditions Persist in the East. Active Precipitation Pattern Continues.
CANADA Capris
+40%
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
Retail Foot Traffic WDD
2015
2014 Change Normal
City
2015
2014 Change Normal
Duluth, MN
36.2
20.7
15.5
28.8
Jackson, MS
2.84
0.48
2.36
1.10
Minneapolis, MN
42.2
27.4
14.8
35.8
Houston, TX
1.63
0.00
1.63
0.68
+6.0%
Aspen, CO
43.9
29.4
14.5
34.5
Midland, TX
1.51
0.00
1.51
0.13
+4.0% +3.7%
Billings, MT
49.3
35.3
14.0
40.6
Seattle, WA
2.58
1.12
1.46
0.72
+2.0%
Green Bay, WI
40.7
27.0
13.8
34.9
Shreveport, LA
1.46
0.00
1.46
0.91
Binghamton, NY
28.6
28.9
-0.3
35.0
Birmingham, AL
0.38
1.61
-1.23
1.10
New York City, NY
38.5
39.6
-1.1
43.8
Charlotte, NC
0.21
1.63
-1.42
1.00
Midland, TX
55.7
57.9
-2.2
59.6
Jacksonville, FL
0.61
2.42
-1.81
0.87
-4.0%
Boston, MA
31.9
34.1
-2.2
39.2
Orlando, FL
0.00
2.07
-2.07
1.00
-6.0%
El Paso, TX
58.7
61.7
-3.0
60.1
Pensacola, FL
0.05
2.74
-2.69
1.33
-8.0%
2015
2014 Change Normal
Winnipeg
City
-1.0
-9.7
8.7
-5.6
Vancouver
City
2015 59
2014 Change Normal 17
42
Edmonton
-0.3
-5.4
5.1
-5.8
Edmonton
9
2
7
3
Toronto
1.2
-3.5
4.7
1.6
Quebec City
20
16
5
15
Calgary
1.2
-2.5
3.7
-1.6
Calgary
5
6
-1
4
25
Vancouver
8.8
5.8
3.0
6.5
Montreal
11
14
-3
13
Ottawa
-4.0
-6.4
2.3
-1.2
Winnipeg
0
5
-5
3
Quebec City
-9.2
-10.2
1.0
-3.5
Toronto
4
9
-5
10
Montreal
-5.0
-4.9
-0.1
-0.8
Ottawa
9
16
-7
12
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
+0.0%
-2.0%
+2.8%
+0.6%
-2.5%
4-Apr
28-Mar
21-Mar
14-Mar
7-Mar
-6.2%
28-Feb
• Last year was colder than normal although warmth was focused in the West. Rainfall was above normal while snowfall was below normal. St. Patrick's Day was much colder than normal with below normal rain and snow. • Warmer Than Last Year Driven by the West. Nationally, it was the warmest 3rd week of March since 2012. Vancouver was the warmest since 1995 and Edmonton since 2010. Conversely, Montreal was the coldest since 1997, hindering demand for Spring categories. St. Patrick’s Day was the warmest since 2012 and the wettest since 2011, with the most snow since 2007. • Snowy and Wet. Despite warmer temperatures to last year, conditions were cold and wet enough to result in the most snowfall for week 3 of March in over 55 years, stifling Spring demand. Halifax had the most snow since 1976 and Vancouver since 2009. Rainfall was also well above last year, and the most for week 3 of March since 2000. Vancouver was the wettest since 2007. MEAN TEMPERATURE (°C) PRECIPITATION (mm) Period of Record: Mar 15 2015 to Mar 21 2015 Period of Record: Mar 15 2015 to Mar 21 2015
+2.2% +0.6% +0.3%
21-Feb
Canada Summary and Callouts
(Actuals for last 6 weeks. Outlook for next 2 weeks.)
14-Feb
City
Compared to the Same Week Last Year
Temperature
• Weekend Review: Cooler than normal temperatures blanketed the Northeast and Ohio River Valley while warmer than normal temperatures continued from the Great Plains to the West Coast. Temperatures were cooler than normal over the Great Lakes and Northeast, while they were warmer than last year. Rainfall was focused in the Pacific Northwest, the Central Rockies, Texas, and along the Gulf Coast. • Last year, temperatures trended colder than normal, although strong warmth was focused in the West. Rainfall was the least in 3 years coupled with below normal snowfall. St. Patrick's Day was the coldest since 1993, with the most snowfall since 2007. • Coast to Coast Warmth. Last week was the warmest 3rd week of March since 2012, with all regions of the country trending warmer than last year. Strong warmth remained in the West as the Mountain and Pacific regions both had their warmest 3rd week of March in over 55 years. LA, San Diego, Las Vegas, and Salt Lake City each had their warmest 3rd week of March in over 55 years. Portland, OR was warmest since 1972 and Seattle was warmest since 1995, fueling demand for Spring product. In the Southeast, Orlando was warmest in over 55 years and New Orleans was warmest in over 30 years. Conversely, Boston was the only major city with notable cold, as the city recorded its coldest 3rd week of March since 1993. • Luck of the Irish Brought a Taste of Spring! St. Patrick's Day was the warmest since 2012 and much warmer than LY. It was the driest since 2011, getting consumers out and about to celebrate the holiday. • Spring Snow! Snow blanketed the Mid-Atlantic region on the first day of Spring. NYC set a daily record with 4.6 inches of snow; moderate amounts also fell from Philadelphia to Baltimore. While snow was quick to melt, wintry precipitation fueled the anticipation for Spring in weather-weary consumers. • Save the Showers for April. Overall it was the driest 3rd week of March since 2011 with rainfall slightly less than last year and well below normal. Cincinnati had its driest 3rd week of March in 20 years. Rainfall was heavy in the South Central and Pacific Northwest regions. Seattle was wettest since 1997. MEAN TEMPERATURE (°F) PRECIPITATION (Inches) Period of Record: Mar 15 2015 to Mar 21 2015 Period of Record: Mar 15 2015 to Mar 21 2015
Precipitation
U.S. Summary and Callouts
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category WDDs represent the % change in demand of the product/category, based purely on the year-over-year change in weather.
BARBECUE GRILLING North America +18% Denver +35% Cincinnati +29% Los Angeles +6% Houston -2%
SUNCARE North America +14% New Orleans +29% Detroit +25% San Diego +16% Miami +3%
SHORTS North America +11% Dallas +30% Winnipeg +10% Seattle +9% Boston -3%
SPORTS DRINKS North America +7% Atlanta +23% Salt Lake City +17% Orlando +6% New York City -3%
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
THIS WEEK: March 22, 2015 – March 28, 2015 (Retail Week 8 / March Week 4) A Warm Week to LY Across North America Will Support Spring Seasonal Categories. Above Normal Warmth Focused in the West and South, Cooler Northeast and Eastern Canada. A Mixed Bag of Precipitation.
Precipitation vs. LY
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
Ice
Snow
• Last year the U.S. had its coldest 4th week of March since 2006 with the most rainfall in 5 years. Snowfall was well above normal due to a mid-week storm in the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions. Canada had its coldest week 4 of March since 1965, and snowiest since 1982. Rainfall was near normal. • Spring is Slow to Arrive in the East. The northeastern U.S. will be cooler than normal for the first half of the week; struggling to reach 30°F near the Canadian border and 40°F from the Great Lakes to New England. Despite the cool conditions, temperatures in these markets will still trend warmer than LY, providing growth opportunities for year-over-year demand of Spring categories. Expect a brief warm-up into the mid-to-upper 50s on Thursday. Cooler temperatures to LY and normal will settle in across most eastern markets by the weekend, limiting demand for lawn care products and Spring apparel. • The West is Best for Seasonal Product. The western U.S. will continue to see very warm conditions versus normal and last year. Temperatures will reach the 70s in the Pacific Northwest and 80s across much of California. Areas in the Desert Southwest will see thermometers climb into the 90s.The warmer temperatures will extend into the Plains until mid-week when a cold front briefly pushes temperatures below normal and LY throughout the region. • Wintry Precipitation Isn’t Over Yet. Storms will bring light rain and wet snow from the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Plains and southern Canadian Prairies. This will generate snow and rain from the Upper Midwest to the interior Northeast. • Dual Storm Track Continues. A pair of storm systems will track across the southern U.S. from Texas to the Carolinas generating locally heavy rain and thunderstorms. Severe weather is likely across the Central Plains. Persistent rain will cause minor flooding across saturated regions of the Deep South. Expect healthy demand for wiper blades, sump pumps, and rainwear. • Canada Warmer Than LY, Cooler Than Normal in the East. Temperatures for much of the country will be warmer than normal and LY, supporting year-overyear demand for Spring categories. Colder than normal temperatures will be focused across eastern Canada, including Toronto and Montreal.
Temperature vs. LY
This Week Outlook & Callouts
Light Medium Heavy
Ice
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category UNITED STATES Pest Control +24%
CANADA Lawn Tools +27%
Bicycles
+10%
Sandals
+9%
Fleece
Swimwear
+16% -4%
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
Light Medium Heavy
Ice
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category UNITED STATES Sandals +5%
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Precipitation vs LY
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
Ice
• Last year the U.S. had its warmest end to March since 2012 with the most rainfall since 2011. Snowfall exceeded normal levels due to a mid-week storm in the Upper Midwest, Rockies, and interior Northeast regions. Canada had its coldest 5th week of March since 2007 with the most rainfall since 2009. Snowfall was well above normal and the most since 2007. • Warmth Continues Across the Plains and West. Markets from the Central Plains to the West Coast will continue to trend warmer than LY and normal. Expect strong demand for pool chemicals, lawn care categories, and other outdoor products. • Cooler than Last Year in the East. The eastern U.S. will start the week off on the cool side and will become colder still as another shot of Canadian air rushes into the region mid-week. Most of the East will average well below last year and normal. The South Central region will also trend cooler than last year and normal for the majority of the week. These conditions will limit demand for Spring merchandise. Florida remains the exception with temperatures warmer than LY and normal. • Rain and Mountain Snow. Light snow will track across the Northern Tier while rain and thunderstorms will persist across the South. More rain and mountain snow will extend from the Pacific Northwest across the Northern Rockies and into the Plains. Canada is Cool in the East, Warm in the West. Cooler temperatures to LY and normal continue in eastern Canada, limiting demand for seasonal products. The Canadian Prairies and majority of British Columbia will trend warmer than LY and normal throughout the week. Precipitation will be active across the country.
Snow
Next Week Outlook & Callouts
Temperature vs LY
NEXT WEEK: March 29, 2015 – April 4, 2015 (Retail Week 9 / March Week 5) The Run-Up Week to Easter Will Feature Warmer Temperatures to LY and Normal Across the Western Half of North America, While Cool Conditions Persist in the East. Active Precipitation Pattern Continues.
CANADA Capris
+40%
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
