Planalytics FlashWeather 04272015
LAST WEEK: April 19, 2015 – April 25, 2015 (Retail Week 12/ April Week 3) Blame It on the Rain! Wettest Week 3 of April Since 1979 in the U.S. Combined with Cooler Temperatures Than LY Limited Seasonal Demand. Severe Weather Became More Widespread. Canada Cool & Wet Too.
Retail Foot Traffic WDD (Actuals for last 6 weeks. Outlook for next 2 weeks.)
2015
2014 Change Normal
2015
2014 Change Normal
Tampa, FL
78.5
71.1
7.4
73.6
San Antonio, TX
4.98
0.00
4.98
0.48
Reno, NV
57.9
52.0
6.0
53.1
Portland, ME
3.78
0.26
3.52
1.00
Miami, FL
81.9
76.4
5.6
76.6
Charlotte, NC
3.31
0.02
3.29
0.59
+2.0%
Spokane, WA
51.1
45.9
5.2
48.6
Birmingham, AL
3.37
0.20
3.17
1.09
+1.0%
Orlando, FL
78.1
73.1
5.1
72.8
Philadelphia, PA
3.58
0.50
3.08
0.58
+0.0%
Bismarck, ND
41.9
50.6
-8.7
46.5
Boise, ID
0.04
1.09
-1.05
0.40
Omaha, NE
51.5
60.3
-8.8
55.1
Portland, OR
0.25
1.45
-1.20
0.62
Goodland, KS
51.4
60.3
-9.0
52.2
Seattle, WA
0.52
1.73
-1.21
0.55
Peoria, IL
51.2
60.5
-9.3
55.5
Bellingham, WA
0.42
1.82
-1.40
0.52
Des Moines, IA
49.6
59.4
-9.9
54.9
North Bend, OR
0.58
2.57
-1.99
0.95
• Last year was cooler than normal; however, Toronto, Montreal, and Ottawa were warmest since 2010. Rainfall was above normal. • Cool Down in Canada. Following a warm week 2 of April, the 3rd week of the month trended the coolest since 2011 with temperatures below normal for most major markets. Toronto and Vancouver had their coolest 3rd week of April since 2011. Montreal was coolest since 2012, stifling demand for spring businesses. • The Great Wet North. Rainfall was the most for week 3 of April since 2012. Nationally, rainfall was 35% above LY, and much above normal. Vancouver had its wettest 3rd week of April since 2003, and Toronto was wettest since 2009. Demand increased for rain-related categories such as rain boots and wiper blades. MEAN TEMPERATURE (°C) Period of Record: Apr 19 2015 to Apr 25 2015 City
2015
PRECIPITATION (mm) Period of Record: Apr 19 2015 to Apr 25 2015
2014 Change Normal
City
2015
2014 Change Normal
Calgary
8.2
6.3
1.9
5.1
Vancouver
40
19
21
19
Quebec City
4.6
4.2
0.5
6.6
Toronto
32
12
20
18
Vancouver
9.7
9.8
-0.1
9.7
Quebec City
48
30
18
20
Edmonton
5.2
5.8
-0.7
4.5
Montreal
35
26
10
19
Montreal
6.0
7.9
-1.9
9.3
Ottawa
29
22
7
19
Toronto
5.4
7.7
-2.3
9.4
Winnipeg
9
18
-8
7
Ottawa
5.2
7.6
-2.4
8.9
Calgary
1
11
-10
10
Winnipeg
2.7
5.3
-2.6
6.0
Edmonton
4
20
-16
9
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
+3.0%
+3.4%
+2.7% +2.4% +2.2%
+2.2% +0.6%
-1.0% -2.0%
9-May
2-May
18-Apr
25-Apr
-2.1%
-2.3%
-3.0%
11-Apr
Canada Summary and Callouts
+4.0%
4-Apr
City
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
21-Mar
City
PRECIPITATION (Inches) Period of Record: Apr 19 2015 to Apr 25 2015
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
28-Mar
MEAN TEMPERATURE (°F) Period of Record: Apr 19 2015 to Apr 25 2015
Compared to the Same Week Last Year
Temperature
• Weekend Review: The weekend was stormy across the South, including hundreds of severe weather reports from Texas to Georgia. With storms throughout Tennessee and Kentucky, flooding concerns continued to mount for those in the already saturated Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Florida was exceptionally warm. While staying on the cooler side, the Northeast and eastern Canada maintained a drier trend. The western states had unsettled weather although the showers were quite welcomed against the long-standing drought. • Last year was warmer than normal with warmth focused in the interior and East. Cooler temperatures shifted west with the Pacific region coolest since 2011. Rainfall was below normal and focused in the West. • Rain...Again and Again. Last week was the wettest 3rd week of April since 1979 with precipitation over 100% more than LY, and 50% greater than normal. The South Atlantic region had its most rain for week 3 of April since 1997. Philadelphia, Charlotte, and San Antonio had their wettest 3rd week of April in over 55 years. Tampa was wettest since 2003, Dallas since 2004, Raleigh since 2006, and Richmond since 2008. Heavy rain and localized flooding drove need-based purchases. It even rained in the West! Los Angeles, San Francisco, Phoenix, and Las Vegas all had measurable rainfall last week. While amounts were limited, every bit helps the drought situation. • Long-Sleeves Not Ready for the Storage Bin Yet. Temperatures trended cooler than last year and normal with the coolest comparisons in New England and the Great Lakes. Boston had its coolest 3rd week of April since 2003 and Chicago was coolest since 2010. Several markets in the East had record cold temperatures late in the week. This included freezing conditions in New York City and Chicago. Cleveland and Pittsburgh also had some light snow accompanying the cold temperatures, keeping demand soft for spring categories. • Cool in the Southwest. LA, Las Vegas, and Phoenix each had their coolest 3rd week of April in 5 years. • Miami Heat. The South Atlantic region was a bright spot, having its warmest 3rd week of April since 2011. Miami had its warmest 3rd week of April in over 55 years. Orlando was warmest since 1972; Tampa since 2002.
Precipitation
U.S. Summary and Callouts
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category WDDs represent the % change in demand of the product/category, based purely on the year-over-year change in weather.
RAINWEAR North America +9% Chicago +10% Atlanta +10% Boston +5% Seattle -7%
TEE SHIRTS North America -3% Portland, OR +8% Philadelphia -4% Denver -10% Toronto -10%
EXTERIOR PAINT North America -5% Los Angeles +5% Baltimore -3% Houston -6% Detroit -20%
SPORTS DRINKS North America -13% Orlando +9% New York City -2% San Francisco -8% Cleveland -59%
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
THIS WEEK: April 26, 2015 – May 2, 2015 (Retail Week 13 / April Week 4)
April to End With a Mixed Bag. Warm Temperatures in the West Move to the East, Lifting Seasonal Demand. Cooler Readings to LY, Flooding Potential, and Severe Storms Continue in the South.
• Spring on the Way Back...Slowly. Eastern and interior North America have received a much cooler trend but expect a return of warmer conditions. In the East, temperatures early week will continue on the cooler side of normal and vs. LY. The warmer trend through the week, however, should help demand rebound for spring apparel, lawn care, and auto appearance. The chance of showers increases late week for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions.
Temperature
• This week last year, temperatures in the U.S. were close to normal with the Pacific region warmest since 2004. The week was the 5th wettest end to April in 50 years bringing flooding to major markets. Canada was slightly cooler than normal. Rainfall was well above normal while snowfall was well below normal.
Precipitation
This Week Outlook & Callouts
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
(Maps compare to the same week last year)
• Rain, Rain, Go Away. It has been an exceptionally wet spring for those in Texas and the Mississippi Valley. Anticipate the chance for showers and thunderstorms through mid-week in this area with the potential for large hail and damaging winds. As streams and rivers are already high, flooding pressure will remain strong. Demand for sump pumps, generators, and batteries will be elevated. A drier trend is expected later in the week.
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category Pool Chemicals: +10%
Grass Seed: +4%
Suncare: +2%
Sandals (Canada): +26%
• Wet Florida Welcome. Florida has missed out on much of the moisture that has been pervasive across the South in recent weeks. That will change mid-week as storms are expected to bring much needed rainfall, some of which could be heavy. Demand for wiper blades and rainwear will increase. • The Heat is On...Again in the West, Moving East. While the week will begin cooler with showers for most, expect a strong warm-up to take hold as temperatures push above normal reinvigorating demand for shorts, tees, live plants, and outdoor furniture. The warming trend will push east into the Plains and Midwest during the week as temperatures surge back into the 70s and 80s providing a better seasonal demand environment.
More Favorable Similar Less Favorable
• Warming Canada to Provide a Strong End to Retail April. The week ahead will be one of considerable warming beginning in the Prairies and spreading into the eastern provinces through the week. Building warmth should re-energize demand for most spring categories. The West will be cooler to last year.
NEXT WEEK: May 3, 2015 – May 9, 2015 (Retail Week 14 / May Week 1)
A Strong Start to Retail May is Expected with Warmer Temperatures Elevating Need for Spring Items. Anticipate a Wetter Mother’s Day Run-up Week for Most to Include Severe Weather Threats.
• Springing into Spring...at Last! A much warmer trend is expected to take hold for most of North America. This should drive demand for all manner of warm weather categories including sandals, cold beverages, and BBQ accessories. Only the Southern Tier is expected to be cooler vs. last year suppressing spring demand. • Wetness to Put a Damper on Outdoor Demand. After a drier trend the prior week, expect a return to a stormy pattern for most areas. The focus of the heaviest storms will be across the Plains into the Southeast with the potential for hail, high winds, and tornadoes. The most impacted areas are likely to experience elevated demand for emergency items including bagged ice and canned goods. Flooding concerns to continue for saturated Texas, along with the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
Precipitation
• Last year, the U.S. had its warmest start to May since 2009, with cool conditions focused in the West. Overall it was the driest start to May since 2007. Mother's Day was the warmest since 2007. Canada had its coolest start to May since 2004 with near normal rainfall. Mother's Day temperatures were near normal.
Temperature
Next Week Outlook & Callouts
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
(Maps compare to the same week last year)
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category Women’s Sandals: +5%
Shorts (Canada): +27%
• Mom Might Need the Umbrella. For Mother’s Day weekend, anticipate unsettled conditions that may impact any outdoor plans or travel to her favorite restaurant.
More Favorable
• Canada Warmth a Plus for Businesses. Temperatures are expected to trend warmer than normal and last year, lifting demand for spring businesses. Only BC is expected to have cooler conditions. Storms will be focused in the Prairies.
Less Favorable
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Similar
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
Retail Foot Traffic WDD (Actuals for last 6 weeks. Outlook for next 2 weeks.)
2015
2014 Change Normal
2015
2014 Change Normal
Tampa, FL
78.5
71.1
7.4
73.6
San Antonio, TX
4.98
0.00
4.98
0.48
Reno, NV
57.9
52.0
6.0
53.1
Portland, ME
3.78
0.26
3.52
1.00
Miami, FL
81.9
76.4
5.6
76.6
Charlotte, NC
3.31
0.02
3.29
0.59
+2.0%
Spokane, WA
51.1
45.9
5.2
48.6
Birmingham, AL
3.37
0.20
3.17
1.09
+1.0%
Orlando, FL
78.1
73.1
5.1
72.8
Philadelphia, PA
3.58
0.50
3.08
0.58
+0.0%
Bismarck, ND
41.9
50.6
-8.7
46.5
Boise, ID
0.04
1.09
-1.05
0.40
Omaha, NE
51.5
60.3
-8.8
55.1
Portland, OR
0.25
1.45
-1.20
0.62
Goodland, KS
51.4
60.3
-9.0
52.2
Seattle, WA
0.52
1.73
-1.21
0.55
Peoria, IL
51.2
60.5
-9.3
55.5
Bellingham, WA
0.42
1.82
-1.40
0.52
Des Moines, IA
49.6
59.4
-9.9
54.9
North Bend, OR
0.58
2.57
-1.99
0.95
• Last year was cooler than normal; however, Toronto, Montreal, and Ottawa were warmest since 2010. Rainfall was above normal. • Cool Down in Canada. Following a warm week 2 of April, the 3rd week of the month trended the coolest since 2011 with temperatures below normal for most major markets. Toronto and Vancouver had their coolest 3rd week of April since 2011. Montreal was coolest since 2012, stifling demand for spring businesses. • The Great Wet North. Rainfall was the most for week 3 of April since 2012. Nationally, rainfall was 35% above LY, and much above normal. Vancouver had its wettest 3rd week of April since 2003, and Toronto was wettest since 2009. Demand increased for rain-related categories such as rain boots and wiper blades. MEAN TEMPERATURE (°C) Period of Record: Apr 19 2015 to Apr 25 2015 City
2015
PRECIPITATION (mm) Period of Record: Apr 19 2015 to Apr 25 2015
2014 Change Normal
City
2015
2014 Change Normal
Calgary
8.2
6.3
1.9
5.1
Vancouver
40
19
21
19
Quebec City
4.6
4.2
0.5
6.6
Toronto
32
12
20
18
Vancouver
9.7
9.8
-0.1
9.7
Quebec City
48
30
18
20
Edmonton
5.2
5.8
-0.7
4.5
Montreal
35
26
10
19
Montreal
6.0
7.9
-1.9
9.3
Ottawa
29
22
7
19
Toronto
5.4
7.7
-2.3
9.4
Winnipeg
9
18
-8
7
Ottawa
5.2
7.6
-2.4
8.9
Calgary
1
11
-10
10
Winnipeg
2.7
5.3
-2.6
6.0
Edmonton
4
20
-16
9
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
+3.0%
+3.4%
+2.7% +2.4% +2.2%
+2.2% +0.6%
-1.0% -2.0%
9-May
2-May
18-Apr
25-Apr
-2.1%
-2.3%
-3.0%
11-Apr
Canada Summary and Callouts
+4.0%
4-Apr
City
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
21-Mar
City
PRECIPITATION (Inches) Period of Record: Apr 19 2015 to Apr 25 2015
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
28-Mar
MEAN TEMPERATURE (°F) Period of Record: Apr 19 2015 to Apr 25 2015
Compared to the Same Week Last Year
Temperature
• Weekend Review: The weekend was stormy across the South, including hundreds of severe weather reports from Texas to Georgia. With storms throughout Tennessee and Kentucky, flooding concerns continued to mount for those in the already saturated Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Florida was exceptionally warm. While staying on the cooler side, the Northeast and eastern Canada maintained a drier trend. The western states had unsettled weather although the showers were quite welcomed against the long-standing drought. • Last year was warmer than normal with warmth focused in the interior and East. Cooler temperatures shifted west with the Pacific region coolest since 2011. Rainfall was below normal and focused in the West. • Rain...Again and Again. Last week was the wettest 3rd week of April since 1979 with precipitation over 100% more than LY, and 50% greater than normal. The South Atlantic region had its most rain for week 3 of April since 1997. Philadelphia, Charlotte, and San Antonio had their wettest 3rd week of April in over 55 years. Tampa was wettest since 2003, Dallas since 2004, Raleigh since 2006, and Richmond since 2008. Heavy rain and localized flooding drove need-based purchases. It even rained in the West! Los Angeles, San Francisco, Phoenix, and Las Vegas all had measurable rainfall last week. While amounts were limited, every bit helps the drought situation. • Long-Sleeves Not Ready for the Storage Bin Yet. Temperatures trended cooler than last year and normal with the coolest comparisons in New England and the Great Lakes. Boston had its coolest 3rd week of April since 2003 and Chicago was coolest since 2010. Several markets in the East had record cold temperatures late in the week. This included freezing conditions in New York City and Chicago. Cleveland and Pittsburgh also had some light snow accompanying the cold temperatures, keeping demand soft for spring categories. • Cool in the Southwest. LA, Las Vegas, and Phoenix each had their coolest 3rd week of April in 5 years. • Miami Heat. The South Atlantic region was a bright spot, having its warmest 3rd week of April since 2011. Miami had its warmest 3rd week of April in over 55 years. Orlando was warmest since 1972; Tampa since 2002.
Precipitation
U.S. Summary and Callouts
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category WDDs represent the % change in demand of the product/category, based purely on the year-over-year change in weather.
RAINWEAR North America +9% Chicago +10% Atlanta +10% Boston +5% Seattle -7%
TEE SHIRTS North America -3% Portland, OR +8% Philadelphia -4% Denver -10% Toronto -10%
EXTERIOR PAINT North America -5% Los Angeles +5% Baltimore -3% Houston -6% Detroit -20%
SPORTS DRINKS North America -13% Orlando +9% New York City -2% San Francisco -8% Cleveland -59%
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
THIS WEEK: April 26, 2015 – May 2, 2015 (Retail Week 13 / April Week 4)
April to End With a Mixed Bag. Warm Temperatures in the West Move to the East, Lifting Seasonal Demand. Cooler Readings to LY, Flooding Potential, and Severe Storms Continue in the South.
• Spring on the Way Back...Slowly. Eastern and interior North America have received a much cooler trend but expect a return of warmer conditions. In the East, temperatures early week will continue on the cooler side of normal and vs. LY. The warmer trend through the week, however, should help demand rebound for spring apparel, lawn care, and auto appearance. The chance of showers increases late week for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions.
Temperature
• This week last year, temperatures in the U.S. were close to normal with the Pacific region warmest since 2004. The week was the 5th wettest end to April in 50 years bringing flooding to major markets. Canada was slightly cooler than normal. Rainfall was well above normal while snowfall was well below normal.
Precipitation
This Week Outlook & Callouts
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
(Maps compare to the same week last year)
• Rain, Rain, Go Away. It has been an exceptionally wet spring for those in Texas and the Mississippi Valley. Anticipate the chance for showers and thunderstorms through mid-week in this area with the potential for large hail and damaging winds. As streams and rivers are already high, flooding pressure will remain strong. Demand for sump pumps, generators, and batteries will be elevated. A drier trend is expected later in the week.
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category Pool Chemicals: +10%
Grass Seed: +4%
Suncare: +2%
Sandals (Canada): +26%
• Wet Florida Welcome. Florida has missed out on much of the moisture that has been pervasive across the South in recent weeks. That will change mid-week as storms are expected to bring much needed rainfall, some of which could be heavy. Demand for wiper blades and rainwear will increase. • The Heat is On...Again in the West, Moving East. While the week will begin cooler with showers for most, expect a strong warm-up to take hold as temperatures push above normal reinvigorating demand for shorts, tees, live plants, and outdoor furniture. The warming trend will push east into the Plains and Midwest during the week as temperatures surge back into the 70s and 80s providing a better seasonal demand environment.
More Favorable Similar Less Favorable
• Warming Canada to Provide a Strong End to Retail April. The week ahead will be one of considerable warming beginning in the Prairies and spreading into the eastern provinces through the week. Building warmth should re-energize demand for most spring categories. The West will be cooler to last year.
NEXT WEEK: May 3, 2015 – May 9, 2015 (Retail Week 14 / May Week 1)
A Strong Start to Retail May is Expected with Warmer Temperatures Elevating Need for Spring Items. Anticipate a Wetter Mother’s Day Run-up Week for Most to Include Severe Weather Threats.
• Springing into Spring...at Last! A much warmer trend is expected to take hold for most of North America. This should drive demand for all manner of warm weather categories including sandals, cold beverages, and BBQ accessories. Only the Southern Tier is expected to be cooler vs. last year suppressing spring demand. • Wetness to Put a Damper on Outdoor Demand. After a drier trend the prior week, expect a return to a stormy pattern for most areas. The focus of the heaviest storms will be across the Plains into the Southeast with the potential for hail, high winds, and tornadoes. The most impacted areas are likely to experience elevated demand for emergency items including bagged ice and canned goods. Flooding concerns to continue for saturated Texas, along with the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
Precipitation
• Last year, the U.S. had its warmest start to May since 2009, with cool conditions focused in the West. Overall it was the driest start to May since 2007. Mother's Day was the warmest since 2007. Canada had its coolest start to May since 2004 with near normal rainfall. Mother's Day temperatures were near normal.
Temperature
Next Week Outlook & Callouts
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
(Maps compare to the same week last year)
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category Women’s Sandals: +5%
Shorts (Canada): +27%
• Mom Might Need the Umbrella. For Mother’s Day weekend, anticipate unsettled conditions that may impact any outdoor plans or travel to her favorite restaurant.
More Favorable
• Canada Warmth a Plus for Businesses. Temperatures are expected to trend warmer than normal and last year, lifting demand for spring businesses. Only BC is expected to have cooler conditions. Storms will be focused in the Prairies.
Less Favorable
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Similar
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
