business confidence index - Portal da Indústria
CNI Indicators ISSN 1676-2029 • Year 18 • Number 5 • May 2016
ICEI
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX ICEI hits 16-month high The Business Confidence Index (ICEI) amounted to 41.3 points in May, up by 4.5 points from the previous month. This is the highest increase in the index since the monthly series began in January 2010.
manufacturing, and construction). As a result of this increase, the index hit its highest level in 16 months.
Despite the significant growth, the ICEI remains below the 50-point mark, From April to May, the ICEI posted growth meaning that entrepreneurs continue to across all geographical regions, company report a lack of confidence, though to a sizes and industries (mining and quarrying, lesser extent.
41.3 54.3 (historical average)
lack of confidence
confidence
Historical series Index (0-100 points)*
58.6 Confidence
57.3
historical average: 54.3
53.3
50.0
49.9
41.3 May/16
Lack of confidence
37.4 37.5 JAN 2012
JUL
JAN 2013
JUL
JAN 2014
JUL
36.8
35.0
JAN 2015
JUL
JAN 2016
*Figures below 50 points indicate a lack of business confidence. The further below 50 points, the greater and more widespread the lack of confidence.
ICEI by size Index (0-100 points)*
Small companies
Medium companies
40.2 38.8
36.5
36.1 35.3
35.1
Oct 2015
35.5
35.0
34.5
35.5
35.1 35.3
35.8
35.1
35.6
34.0 Dec
Nov
Feb
Jan 2016
Mar
Apr
May
Oct 2015
Nov
Dec
Feb
Jan 2016
Mar
Apr
May
Large companies 43.0
37.6
37.7
38.4 38.6
The ICEI increased across companies of all sizes, particularly large enterprises.
38.2
36.9 35.7
Oct 2015
Nov
Dec
Jan 2016
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
ICEI Components All components making up the ICEI posted growth on a month-over-month basis. The increase in the index is largely driven by improved expectations. The expectations index rose by 5.7 points between April and May: the index measuring expectations for the Brazilian economy increased by 8.6 points, while the index measuring business expectations edged up by 4.1 points. The company expectations index hit the mark of 50.3 points. The fact that the index stands on the 50-point dividing line indicates that entrepreneurs do not expect their business to worsen over the next six months. The index had been hovering below the dividing line since 2015, reflecting, then, pessimism among entrepreneurs about the future of their businesses.
Current Conditions Index Index (0-100 points) 55.0 45.0 44.2
34.1
35.0
33.9
33.8
25.0
21.2 22.6
15.0
May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May 2014 2015 2016 Brazilian economy
Company
Dividing line
The Current Conditions Index range from 0 to 100. Figures above 50 points values indicate a better situation.
Expectations Index Index (0-100 points) 65.0
55.6
55.0
50.3
45.0
47.7 43.8
35.0
40.6
34.1
25.0
May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May 2014 2015 2016 Brazilian economy
Company
Dividing line
The Expectations Index range from 0 to 100. Figures above 50 points indicate optimistic expectations.
ICEI COMPONENTS MAY/15
APR/16*
MAY/16
ICEI
38.6
36.8
41.3
Current conditions1 in relation to:
29.8
28.0
30.1
Brazilian economy
21.2
18.9
22.6
Company
34.1
32.7
33.9
43.1
41.3
47.0
Brazilian economy
34.1
32.0
40.6
Company
47.7
46.2
50.3
Expectations2 on:
Note: 1 - As compared to the last six months. 2 - For the next six months. The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate a better situation or optimistic expectations. * The ICEI for April 2016 has been reviewed and updated.
ICEI – BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX MAY/15
APR/16*
MAY/16
38.6
36.8
41.3
Construction
38.7
35.5
40.4
Mining and quarrying
41.0
39.9
45.4
Manufacturing
38.4
37.0
41.3
Small Enterprises
37.3
35.3
38.8
Medium Enterprises
37.7
35.6
40.2
Large Enterprises
39.7
38.2
43.0
ICEI INDUSTRIAL SEGMENTS
BUSINESS SIZE
The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate that entrepreneurs are confident. * The ICEI for April 2016 has been reviewed and updated.
Technical specifications Sample profile: 3,137 enterprises, including 1,238 small, 1,169 medium and 730 large companies. Data collection period: May 2-12, 2016.
i
Learn more
For more information on the survey, including sectoral and regional results and methodology, kindly visit www.cni.org.br/e_icei
Print
Click here to print this document.
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX | English version of ICEI Índice de Confiança do Empresário Industrial, Maio de 2016 | Monthly publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Board - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Marcelo Souza Azevedo, Roxana Maria Rossy Campos and Taryane Carvalho Perne | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic Design Supervision: Carla Gadêlha | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected]. This publication may be copied, provided that the source is mentioned.
ICEI
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX ICEI hits 16-month high The Business Confidence Index (ICEI) amounted to 41.3 points in May, up by 4.5 points from the previous month. This is the highest increase in the index since the monthly series began in January 2010.
manufacturing, and construction). As a result of this increase, the index hit its highest level in 16 months.
Despite the significant growth, the ICEI remains below the 50-point mark, From April to May, the ICEI posted growth meaning that entrepreneurs continue to across all geographical regions, company report a lack of confidence, though to a sizes and industries (mining and quarrying, lesser extent.
41.3 54.3 (historical average)
lack of confidence
confidence
Historical series Index (0-100 points)*
58.6 Confidence
57.3
historical average: 54.3
53.3
50.0
49.9
41.3 May/16
Lack of confidence
37.4 37.5 JAN 2012
JUL
JAN 2013
JUL
JAN 2014
JUL
36.8
35.0
JAN 2015
JUL
JAN 2016
*Figures below 50 points indicate a lack of business confidence. The further below 50 points, the greater and more widespread the lack of confidence.
ICEI by size Index (0-100 points)*
Small companies
Medium companies
40.2 38.8
36.5
36.1 35.3
35.1
Oct 2015
35.5
35.0
34.5
35.5
35.1 35.3
35.8
35.1
35.6
34.0 Dec
Nov
Feb
Jan 2016
Mar
Apr
May
Oct 2015
Nov
Dec
Feb
Jan 2016
Mar
Apr
May
Large companies 43.0
37.6
37.7
38.4 38.6
The ICEI increased across companies of all sizes, particularly large enterprises.
38.2
36.9 35.7
Oct 2015
Nov
Dec
Jan 2016
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
ICEI Components All components making up the ICEI posted growth on a month-over-month basis. The increase in the index is largely driven by improved expectations. The expectations index rose by 5.7 points between April and May: the index measuring expectations for the Brazilian economy increased by 8.6 points, while the index measuring business expectations edged up by 4.1 points. The company expectations index hit the mark of 50.3 points. The fact that the index stands on the 50-point dividing line indicates that entrepreneurs do not expect their business to worsen over the next six months. The index had been hovering below the dividing line since 2015, reflecting, then, pessimism among entrepreneurs about the future of their businesses.
Current Conditions Index Index (0-100 points) 55.0 45.0 44.2
34.1
35.0
33.9
33.8
25.0
21.2 22.6
15.0
May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May 2014 2015 2016 Brazilian economy
Company
Dividing line
The Current Conditions Index range from 0 to 100. Figures above 50 points values indicate a better situation.
Expectations Index Index (0-100 points) 65.0
55.6
55.0
50.3
45.0
47.7 43.8
35.0
40.6
34.1
25.0
May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May 2014 2015 2016 Brazilian economy
Company
Dividing line
The Expectations Index range from 0 to 100. Figures above 50 points indicate optimistic expectations.
ICEI COMPONENTS MAY/15
APR/16*
MAY/16
ICEI
38.6
36.8
41.3
Current conditions1 in relation to:
29.8
28.0
30.1
Brazilian economy
21.2
18.9
22.6
Company
34.1
32.7
33.9
43.1
41.3
47.0
Brazilian economy
34.1
32.0
40.6
Company
47.7
46.2
50.3
Expectations2 on:
Note: 1 - As compared to the last six months. 2 - For the next six months. The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate a better situation or optimistic expectations. * The ICEI for April 2016 has been reviewed and updated.
ICEI – BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX MAY/15
APR/16*
MAY/16
38.6
36.8
41.3
Construction
38.7
35.5
40.4
Mining and quarrying
41.0
39.9
45.4
Manufacturing
38.4
37.0
41.3
Small Enterprises
37.3
35.3
38.8
Medium Enterprises
37.7
35.6
40.2
Large Enterprises
39.7
38.2
43.0
ICEI INDUSTRIAL SEGMENTS
BUSINESS SIZE
The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate that entrepreneurs are confident. * The ICEI for April 2016 has been reviewed and updated.
Technical specifications Sample profile: 3,137 enterprises, including 1,238 small, 1,169 medium and 730 large companies. Data collection period: May 2-12, 2016.
i
Learn more
For more information on the survey, including sectoral and regional results and methodology, kindly visit www.cni.org.br/e_icei
Click here to print this document.
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX | English version of ICEI Índice de Confiança do Empresário Industrial, Maio de 2016 | Monthly publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Board - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Marcelo Souza Azevedo, Roxana Maria Rossy Campos and Taryane Carvalho Perne | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic Design Supervision: Carla Gadêlha | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected]. This publication may be copied, provided that the source is mentioned.
