business confidence index
CNI Indicators ISSN 1676-2029 • Year 19 • Number 2 • February 2017
ICEI
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX Entrepreneurs regain confidence ICEI Thermometer
The Business Confidence Index (ICEI) edged up between January and February 2017 to 53.1 points. As a result, the index is up by 3.1 points from the 50-point dividing line between confidence and lack of confidence. The index for February is close to that recorded in September 2016, when it stood at 53.7 points, the highest level since January 2014. Compared with December 2016, the index is up by 16.0 points.
Index (0-100 points)*
53.1 confidence
lack of confidence
54.1 (historical average)
Historical series Index (0-100 points)*
61.6 Confidence
53.7
historical average: 54.1
53.1
50.0
feb/17 48.0
lack of confidence
35.0 FEB 2011
AUG
FEB 2012
AUG
FEB 2013
AUG
FEB 2014
AUG
FEB 2015
AUG
FEB 2016
AUG
FEB 2017
*Figures below 50 points indicate lack of business confidence. The further below 50 points, the greater and more widespread the lack of confidence.
ICEI - Business Confidence Index ISSN 1676-2029 • Year 19 • Number 2 • February 2017
ICEI components February saw an improvement across all components making up the ICEI. However, the index has recovered mainly due to improved expectations on the part of entrepreneurs. The expectations index, which is one of the ICEI components, rose by 2.8 points to 57.5 points. Expectations regarding the Brazilian economy, which were neutral in January (virtually on the dividing line at 50.2 points), hit the mark of 53.7 points and are up by 22.2 points from the
figure recorded in February 2016. Meanwhile, expectations on one’s own company amounted to 59.4 points, the highest level since October 2016. The current conditions index experienced a 3.5-point growth, but still remains below the 50-point mark at 44.7 points. This is to say that entrepreneurs still believe business conditions are worsening, though this perception is less intense and widespread. The index is at an all-time high since January 2014.
Current conditions index Index (0-100 points)*
Improvement 50.0 44.7
43.8 Worsening
40.7
41.2
DEC
JAN 2017
28.9
FEB 2016
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
FEB
* The current conditions index varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points values indicate a better situation.
Expectations index Index (0-100 points)*
57.5
55.8
Optimism
54.7 51.6
50.0
Pessimism
41.2
FEB 2016
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
* The expectations index varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate optimistic expectations.
2
JAN 2017
FEB
ICEI - Business Confidence Index ISSN 1676-2029 • Year 19 • Number 2 • February 2017
Sectors Confidence has improved across the mining and quarrying, manufacturing and construction sectors. In February, only 7 of the 32 sectors considered in
the survey posted an ICEI below 50 points. In January, 21 sectors showed a lack of confidence.
ICEI by activity sectors Index (0-100 points)*
Footwear and parts 59.7 Biofuels 58.2 Cleaning and perfumes preparations 56.9 Pharmaceutical chemicals and pharmaceuticals 56.5 Mining of metal ores 56.2 Computers, electronics and optical products 56.0 Textiles 56.0 Pulp, paper and paper products 55.3 Chemicals 54.5 Plastic products 54.2 Basic metals 53.9 Manufacturing Industry 53.8 Motor vehicles 53.5 Furniture 53.3 Mining and Quarrying Industry 52.6 Construction of buildings 52.6 Beverages 52.4 Metal products 52.3 Food products 52.3 Electrical equipment and appliances 51.7 Coke and refined petroleum products 51.7 Leather and related products 51.7 Printing and reproduction of recorded media 51.5 Construction Industry 50.9 Rubber products 50.8 Machinery and equipment 50.7 Other manufacturing 50.5 Repair and installation 50.1 Mining of non-metal ores 48.8 Civil engineering 48.8 Wearing apparel 48.0 Wood products 47.5 Specialized services for the construction 47.5 Other transport equipment 47.2 Non-metallic mineral products 45.9
* Figures below 50 points indicate a lack of business confidence. The further below 50 points, the greater and more widespread the lack of confidence.
3
ICEI - Business Confidence Index ISSN 1676-2029 • Year 19 • Number 2 • February 2017
ICEI Components FEB16
JAN17
FEB17
ICEI
37.1
50.1
53.1
Current conditions1 in relation to:
28.9
41.2
44.7
Brazilian economy
21.0
38.2
43.4
Company
33.0
42.8
45.5
41.2
54.7
57.5
Brazilian economy
31.5
50.2
53.7
Company
46.2
56.9
59.4
Expectations on: 2
Note: 1 - As compared to the last six months. 2 - For the next six months. The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate a better situation or optimistic expectations.
ICEI – BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX FEB16
JAN17
FEB17
37.1
50.1
53.1
Construction
36.4
48.2
50.9
Mining and quarrying
41.4
50.9
52.6
Manufacturing
37.2
50.6
53.8
Small Enterprises
35.5
46.3
49.2
Medium Enterprises
35.8
48.6
52.2
Large Enterprises
38.6
52.7
55.5
ICEI
INDUSTRIAL SEGMENTS
BUSINESS SIZE
The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate that entrepreneurs are confident.
Technical specifications Sample profile: 3,080 enterprises, including 1,222 small, 1,159 medium and 699 large companies. Data collection period: February 1-13, 2017.
i
Learn more For more information on the survey, including sectoral and regional results and methodology, kindly visit: www.cni.org.br/e_icei
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX | English version of “ICEI - Índice de Confiança do Empresário Industrial, Fevereiro 2017” | Monthly publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Board - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Marcelo Souza Azevedo, Roxana Maria Rossy Campos and Taryane Carvalho Perne | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic Design Supervision: Alisson Costa | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected]. This publication may be copied, provided that the source is mentioned.
ICEI
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX Entrepreneurs regain confidence ICEI Thermometer
The Business Confidence Index (ICEI) edged up between January and February 2017 to 53.1 points. As a result, the index is up by 3.1 points from the 50-point dividing line between confidence and lack of confidence. The index for February is close to that recorded in September 2016, when it stood at 53.7 points, the highest level since January 2014. Compared with December 2016, the index is up by 16.0 points.
Index (0-100 points)*
53.1 confidence
lack of confidence
54.1 (historical average)
Historical series Index (0-100 points)*
61.6 Confidence
53.7
historical average: 54.1
53.1
50.0
feb/17 48.0
lack of confidence
35.0 FEB 2011
AUG
FEB 2012
AUG
FEB 2013
AUG
FEB 2014
AUG
FEB 2015
AUG
FEB 2016
AUG
FEB 2017
*Figures below 50 points indicate lack of business confidence. The further below 50 points, the greater and more widespread the lack of confidence.
ICEI - Business Confidence Index ISSN 1676-2029 • Year 19 • Number 2 • February 2017
ICEI components February saw an improvement across all components making up the ICEI. However, the index has recovered mainly due to improved expectations on the part of entrepreneurs. The expectations index, which is one of the ICEI components, rose by 2.8 points to 57.5 points. Expectations regarding the Brazilian economy, which were neutral in January (virtually on the dividing line at 50.2 points), hit the mark of 53.7 points and are up by 22.2 points from the
figure recorded in February 2016. Meanwhile, expectations on one’s own company amounted to 59.4 points, the highest level since October 2016. The current conditions index experienced a 3.5-point growth, but still remains below the 50-point mark at 44.7 points. This is to say that entrepreneurs still believe business conditions are worsening, though this perception is less intense and widespread. The index is at an all-time high since January 2014.
Current conditions index Index (0-100 points)*
Improvement 50.0 44.7
43.8 Worsening
40.7
41.2
DEC
JAN 2017
28.9
FEB 2016
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
FEB
* The current conditions index varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points values indicate a better situation.
Expectations index Index (0-100 points)*
57.5
55.8
Optimism
54.7 51.6
50.0
Pessimism
41.2
FEB 2016
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
* The expectations index varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate optimistic expectations.
2
JAN 2017
FEB
ICEI - Business Confidence Index ISSN 1676-2029 • Year 19 • Number 2 • February 2017
Sectors Confidence has improved across the mining and quarrying, manufacturing and construction sectors. In February, only 7 of the 32 sectors considered in
the survey posted an ICEI below 50 points. In January, 21 sectors showed a lack of confidence.
ICEI by activity sectors Index (0-100 points)*
Footwear and parts 59.7 Biofuels 58.2 Cleaning and perfumes preparations 56.9 Pharmaceutical chemicals and pharmaceuticals 56.5 Mining of metal ores 56.2 Computers, electronics and optical products 56.0 Textiles 56.0 Pulp, paper and paper products 55.3 Chemicals 54.5 Plastic products 54.2 Basic metals 53.9 Manufacturing Industry 53.8 Motor vehicles 53.5 Furniture 53.3 Mining and Quarrying Industry 52.6 Construction of buildings 52.6 Beverages 52.4 Metal products 52.3 Food products 52.3 Electrical equipment and appliances 51.7 Coke and refined petroleum products 51.7 Leather and related products 51.7 Printing and reproduction of recorded media 51.5 Construction Industry 50.9 Rubber products 50.8 Machinery and equipment 50.7 Other manufacturing 50.5 Repair and installation 50.1 Mining of non-metal ores 48.8 Civil engineering 48.8 Wearing apparel 48.0 Wood products 47.5 Specialized services for the construction 47.5 Other transport equipment 47.2 Non-metallic mineral products 45.9
* Figures below 50 points indicate a lack of business confidence. The further below 50 points, the greater and more widespread the lack of confidence.
3
ICEI - Business Confidence Index ISSN 1676-2029 • Year 19 • Number 2 • February 2017
ICEI Components FEB16
JAN17
FEB17
ICEI
37.1
50.1
53.1
Current conditions1 in relation to:
28.9
41.2
44.7
Brazilian economy
21.0
38.2
43.4
Company
33.0
42.8
45.5
41.2
54.7
57.5
Brazilian economy
31.5
50.2
53.7
Company
46.2
56.9
59.4
Expectations on: 2
Note: 1 - As compared to the last six months. 2 - For the next six months. The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate a better situation or optimistic expectations.
ICEI – BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX FEB16
JAN17
FEB17
37.1
50.1
53.1
Construction
36.4
48.2
50.9
Mining and quarrying
41.4
50.9
52.6
Manufacturing
37.2
50.6
53.8
Small Enterprises
35.5
46.3
49.2
Medium Enterprises
35.8
48.6
52.2
Large Enterprises
38.6
52.7
55.5
ICEI
INDUSTRIAL SEGMENTS
BUSINESS SIZE
The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate that entrepreneurs are confident.
Technical specifications Sample profile: 3,080 enterprises, including 1,222 small, 1,159 medium and 699 large companies. Data collection period: February 1-13, 2017.
i
Learn more For more information on the survey, including sectoral and regional results and methodology, kindly visit: www.cni.org.br/e_icei
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX | English version of “ICEI - Índice de Confiança do Empresário Industrial, Fevereiro 2017” | Monthly publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Board - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Marcelo Souza Azevedo, Roxana Maria Rossy Campos and Taryane Carvalho Perne | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic Design Supervision: Alisson Costa | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected]. This publication may be copied, provided that the source is mentioned.
