business confidence index
CNI Indicators ISSN 1676-2029 • Year 18 • Number 12 • December 2016
ICEI
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX Entrepreneurs once again pessimistic ICEI Thermometer
Industrial entrepreneurs showed a lack of confidence again after four months. The Business Confidence Index (ICEI) edged down by 3.7 points in December from the month before, falling once again below the 50-point mark. After approaching its historical average in September, the ICEI fell in the subsequent three months, down by a total of 5.7 points during the period.
Index (0-100 points)*
48.0 confidence
lack of confidence
Despite the recent declines, the index is still up by 12 points from the figure recorded in December 2015.
54.1 (historical average)
Historical series Index (0-100 points)*
61.4
Confidence
53.7
historical average: 54.1
50.0
48.0
Lack of confidence
Dec/16
36.0 DEC 2010
JUN 2011
DEC
JUN 2012
DEC
JUN 2013
DEC
JUN 2014
DEC
JUN 2015
DEC
JUN 2016
DEC
*Figures below 50 points indicate lack of business confidence. The further below 50 points, the greater and more widespread the lack of confidence.
ICEI - Business Confidence Index ISSN 1676-2029 • Year 18 • Number 12 • December 2016
ICEI components The decline in the ICEI in December was led both by a more negative assessment of business conditions and by prospects for the future, which kept worsening. The expectations index shrank by 7.1 points in the last three-month period. Expectations are still optimistic: the indicator
remains above 50 points, but is approaching the dividing line. It is worth stressing that entrepreneurs still have positive expectations about their companies, with the index standing at 54.3 points.
Current conditions index Index (0-100 points)*
Improvement 50.0
44.0
43.3
43.8 40.7
Worsening
DEC 2015
JAN 2016
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
* The current conditions index varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points values indicate a better situation.
Expectations index Index (0-100 points)*
58.7
56.8
Optimism
55.8 51.6
50,0
Pessimism
DEC 2015
JAN 2016
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
* The expectations index varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate optimistic expectations.
2
NOV
DEC
ICEI - Business Confidence Index ISSN 1676-2029 • Year 18 • Number 12 • December 2016
ICEI Components DEC15
NOV16
DEC16
ICEI
36.0
51.7
48.0
Current conditions1 in relation to:
28.3
43.8
40.7
Brazilian economy
19.3
42.4
37.0
Company
32.9
44.5
42.6
39.8
55.8
51.6
Brazilian economy
29.9
53.1
46.4
Company
45.0
57.2
54.3
Expectations on: 2
Note: 1 - As compared to the last six months. 2 - For the next six months. The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate a better situation or optimistic expectations.
ICEI – BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX DEC15
NOV16
DEC16
36.0
51.7
48.0
Construction
35.0
50.3
46.3
Mining and quarrying
41.6
53.1
49.7
Manufacturing
36.0
52.1
48.3
Small Enterprises
35.0
48.7
44.4
Medium Enterprises
35.1
51.0
46.7
Large Enterprises
36.9
53.5
50.3
ICEI
INDUSTRIAL SEGMENTS
BUSINESS SIZE
The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate that entrepreneurs are confident.
Technical specifications Sample profile: 2,971 enterprises, including 1,174 small, 1,112 medium and 685 large companies. Data collection period: December 1-12, 2016.
i
Learn more For more information on the survey, including sectoral and regional results and methodology, kindly visit: www.cni.org.br/e_icei
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX | English version of “ICEI - Índice de Confiança do Empresário Industrial, novembro de 2016” | Monthly publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Board - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Marcelo Souza Azevedo, Roxana Maria Rossy Campos and Taryane Carvalho Perne | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic Design Supervision: Alisson Costa | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected]. This publication may be copied, provided that the source is mentioned.
ICEI
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX Entrepreneurs once again pessimistic ICEI Thermometer
Industrial entrepreneurs showed a lack of confidence again after four months. The Business Confidence Index (ICEI) edged down by 3.7 points in December from the month before, falling once again below the 50-point mark. After approaching its historical average in September, the ICEI fell in the subsequent three months, down by a total of 5.7 points during the period.
Index (0-100 points)*
48.0 confidence
lack of confidence
Despite the recent declines, the index is still up by 12 points from the figure recorded in December 2015.
54.1 (historical average)
Historical series Index (0-100 points)*
61.4
Confidence
53.7
historical average: 54.1
50.0
48.0
Lack of confidence
Dec/16
36.0 DEC 2010
JUN 2011
DEC
JUN 2012
DEC
JUN 2013
DEC
JUN 2014
DEC
JUN 2015
DEC
JUN 2016
DEC
*Figures below 50 points indicate lack of business confidence. The further below 50 points, the greater and more widespread the lack of confidence.
ICEI - Business Confidence Index ISSN 1676-2029 • Year 18 • Number 12 • December 2016
ICEI components The decline in the ICEI in December was led both by a more negative assessment of business conditions and by prospects for the future, which kept worsening. The expectations index shrank by 7.1 points in the last three-month period. Expectations are still optimistic: the indicator
remains above 50 points, but is approaching the dividing line. It is worth stressing that entrepreneurs still have positive expectations about their companies, with the index standing at 54.3 points.
Current conditions index Index (0-100 points)*
Improvement 50.0
44.0
43.3
43.8 40.7
Worsening
DEC 2015
JAN 2016
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
* The current conditions index varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points values indicate a better situation.
Expectations index Index (0-100 points)*
58.7
56.8
Optimism
55.8 51.6
50,0
Pessimism
DEC 2015
JAN 2016
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
* The expectations index varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate optimistic expectations.
2
NOV
DEC
ICEI - Business Confidence Index ISSN 1676-2029 • Year 18 • Number 12 • December 2016
ICEI Components DEC15
NOV16
DEC16
ICEI
36.0
51.7
48.0
Current conditions1 in relation to:
28.3
43.8
40.7
Brazilian economy
19.3
42.4
37.0
Company
32.9
44.5
42.6
39.8
55.8
51.6
Brazilian economy
29.9
53.1
46.4
Company
45.0
57.2
54.3
Expectations on: 2
Note: 1 - As compared to the last six months. 2 - For the next six months. The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate a better situation or optimistic expectations.
ICEI – BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX DEC15
NOV16
DEC16
36.0
51.7
48.0
Construction
35.0
50.3
46.3
Mining and quarrying
41.6
53.1
49.7
Manufacturing
36.0
52.1
48.3
Small Enterprises
35.0
48.7
44.4
Medium Enterprises
35.1
51.0
46.7
Large Enterprises
36.9
53.5
50.3
ICEI
INDUSTRIAL SEGMENTS
BUSINESS SIZE
The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate that entrepreneurs are confident.
Technical specifications Sample profile: 2,971 enterprises, including 1,174 small, 1,112 medium and 685 large companies. Data collection period: December 1-12, 2016.
i
Learn more For more information on the survey, including sectoral and regional results and methodology, kindly visit: www.cni.org.br/e_icei
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX | English version of “ICEI - Índice de Confiança do Empresário Industrial, novembro de 2016” | Monthly publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Board - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Marcelo Souza Azevedo, Roxana Maria Rossy Campos and Taryane Carvalho Perne | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic Design Supervision: Alisson Costa | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected]. This publication may be copied, provided that the source is mentioned.
