icei â business confidence index
CNI Indicators ISSN 1676-2029 • Year 18 • Number 6 • June 2016
ICEI
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX Confidence up again in June The Business Confidence Index (ICEI) has grown for the second month in a row, hitting the mark of 45.7 points in June. The index experienced a 4.4- point increase from the previous month, up by 8.9 points in the last two months. As a result of this growth, the ICEI reached its highest level since November 2014. The index, however, remains below the 50-point mark, meaning that entrepreneurs are still showing a lack of confidence, albeit to an increasingly lesser degree.
Considering the components making up the ICEI (current conditions and expectations indices), one can see that both of them posted growth on a monthly comparison basis (current conditions up by 5 points and expectations by 4.1 points). It is worth stressing that the expectations index rose from 47 points in May to 51.1 points in June, suggesting that entrepreneurs have positive expectations for the next six months. The expectations index had been below 50 points since October 2014.
45.7 54.3 (historical average)
lack of confidence
confidence
Historical series Index (0-100 points)*
56.1
Confidence
historical average: 54.3
50.0 53.3
49.9
45.7
Lack of confidence
41.3 37.5 JUN 2012
OCT
FEB 2013
JUN
OCT
FEB 2014
JUN
OCT
FEB 2015
36.8
35.0 JUN
OCT
FEB 2016
JUN
*Figures below 50 points indicate a lack of business confidence. The further below 50 points, the greater and more widespread the lack of confidence.
ICEI by size Index (0-100 points)
Small companies
Medium companies 44.1
43.1
40.2
38.8 35.5
36.1
35.5 35.3
35.1 Jan 2016
Feb
Mar
35.8 May
Apr 2016
Jun
Jan 2016
Feb
36.5
Mar
35.6 Apr 2016
May
Jun
Large companies 47.7 43.0 38.6
38.4 38.2
37.6
Jan 2016
In the last two months, the ICEI for large companies grew by 9.5 points, hitting a 24-month high in June.
Feb
Mar
Apr 2016
May
Jun
ICEI COMPONENTS JUN/15
MAY/16
JUN/16
ICEI
38.9
41.3
45.7
Current conditions1 in relation to:
29.6
30.1
35.1
Brazilian economy
21.5
22.6
29.1
Company
33.7
33.9
38.0
43.6
47.0
51.1
Brazilian economy
35.0
40.6
45.9
Company
48.0
50.3
53.8
Expectations2 on:
Note: 1 - As compared to the last six months. 2 - For the next six months. The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate a better situation or optimistic expectations.
ICEI – BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX JUN/15
MAY/16
JUN/16
38.9
41.3
45.7
Construction
39.5
40.4
44.1
Mining and quarrying
42.5
45.4
48.8
Manufacturing
38.5
41.3
45.9
Small Enterprises
38.1
38.8
43.1
Medium Enterprises
37.2
40.2
44.1
Large Enterprises
40.2
43.0
47.7
ICEI INDUSTRIAL SEGMENTS
BUSINESS SIZE
The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate that entrepreneurs are confident.
Technical specifications Sample profile: 3,033 enterprises, including 1,205 small, 1,127 medium and 701 large companies. Data collection period: June 3-13, 2016.
i
Learn more
For more information on the survey, including sectoral and regional results and methodology, kindly visit www.cni.org.br/e_icei
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BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX | English version of “ICEI - Índice de Confiança do Empresário Industrial, Junho de 2016” | Monthly publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Board - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Marcelo Souza Azevedo, Roxana Maria Rossy Campos and Taryane Carvalho Perne | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic Design Supervision: Carla Gadêlha | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected]. This publication may be copied, provided that the source is mentioned.
ICEI
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX Confidence up again in June The Business Confidence Index (ICEI) has grown for the second month in a row, hitting the mark of 45.7 points in June. The index experienced a 4.4- point increase from the previous month, up by 8.9 points in the last two months. As a result of this growth, the ICEI reached its highest level since November 2014. The index, however, remains below the 50-point mark, meaning that entrepreneurs are still showing a lack of confidence, albeit to an increasingly lesser degree.
Considering the components making up the ICEI (current conditions and expectations indices), one can see that both of them posted growth on a monthly comparison basis (current conditions up by 5 points and expectations by 4.1 points). It is worth stressing that the expectations index rose from 47 points in May to 51.1 points in June, suggesting that entrepreneurs have positive expectations for the next six months. The expectations index had been below 50 points since October 2014.
45.7 54.3 (historical average)
lack of confidence
confidence
Historical series Index (0-100 points)*
56.1
Confidence
historical average: 54.3
50.0 53.3
49.9
45.7
Lack of confidence
41.3 37.5 JUN 2012
OCT
FEB 2013
JUN
OCT
FEB 2014
JUN
OCT
FEB 2015
36.8
35.0 JUN
OCT
FEB 2016
JUN
*Figures below 50 points indicate a lack of business confidence. The further below 50 points, the greater and more widespread the lack of confidence.
ICEI by size Index (0-100 points)
Small companies
Medium companies 44.1
43.1
40.2
38.8 35.5
36.1
35.5 35.3
35.1 Jan 2016
Feb
Mar
35.8 May
Apr 2016
Jun
Jan 2016
Feb
36.5
Mar
35.6 Apr 2016
May
Jun
Large companies 47.7 43.0 38.6
38.4 38.2
37.6
Jan 2016
In the last two months, the ICEI for large companies grew by 9.5 points, hitting a 24-month high in June.
Feb
Mar
Apr 2016
May
Jun
ICEI COMPONENTS JUN/15
MAY/16
JUN/16
ICEI
38.9
41.3
45.7
Current conditions1 in relation to:
29.6
30.1
35.1
Brazilian economy
21.5
22.6
29.1
Company
33.7
33.9
38.0
43.6
47.0
51.1
Brazilian economy
35.0
40.6
45.9
Company
48.0
50.3
53.8
Expectations2 on:
Note: 1 - As compared to the last six months. 2 - For the next six months. The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate a better situation or optimistic expectations.
ICEI – BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX JUN/15
MAY/16
JUN/16
38.9
41.3
45.7
Construction
39.5
40.4
44.1
Mining and quarrying
42.5
45.4
48.8
Manufacturing
38.5
41.3
45.9
Small Enterprises
38.1
38.8
43.1
Medium Enterprises
37.2
40.2
44.1
Large Enterprises
40.2
43.0
47.7
ICEI INDUSTRIAL SEGMENTS
BUSINESS SIZE
The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate that entrepreneurs are confident.
Technical specifications Sample profile: 3,033 enterprises, including 1,205 small, 1,127 medium and 701 large companies. Data collection period: June 3-13, 2016.
i
Learn more
For more information on the survey, including sectoral and regional results and methodology, kindly visit www.cni.org.br/e_icei
Click here to print this document.
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX | English version of “ICEI - Índice de Confiança do Empresário Industrial, Junho de 2016” | Monthly publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Board - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Marcelo Souza Azevedo, Roxana Maria Rossy Campos and Taryane Carvalho Perne | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic Design Supervision: Carla Gadêlha | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected]. This publication may be copied, provided that the source is mentioned.
