business confidence index
CNI Indicators ISSN 1676-2029 • Year 18 • Number 1 • January 2016
ICEI
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX Lack of business confidence at the start of 2016 Industrial entrepreneurs in Brazil continue to show a deep and widespread lack of confidence in early 2016. In January, the Business Confidence Index (ICEI) hovered within the margin of error to 36.5 points. This result is up by 0.5 points from December 2015; down by 7.9 points from January 2015; and down by 14 points from the 50-point dividing line (figures below 50 points indicate a lack of business confidence).
36.5 54.9 (historical average)
lack of confidence
confidence
Historical series Index (0-100 points)*
Confidence
historical average: 54.9
53.1
56.7 50.0
Lack of confidence
44.4
36.5 36.0
Jan Apr 2013
Jul
Oct
Jan Apr 2014
Jul
Oct
Jan Apr 2015
Jul
Oct
Jan 2016
*Figures below 50 points indicate a lack of business confidence. The further below 50 points, the greater and more widespread the lack of confidence.
ICEI COMPONENTS JAN15
DEC15
JAN16
ICEI
44.4
36.0
36.5
Current conditions1 in relation to:
35.7
28.3
27.6
Brazilian economy
26.7
19.3
18.7
Company
40.3
32.9
32.2
48.7
39.8
40.9
Brazilian economy
38.6
29.9
30.4
Company
53.8
45.0
46.5
Expectations2 on:
Note: 1 - As compared to the last six months. 2 - For the next six months. The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate a better situation or optimistic expectations.
ICEI – BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX JAN15
DEC15
JAN16
44.4
36.0
36.5
Construction
44.6
35.0
35.1
Mining and quarrying
45.0
41.6
44.0
Manufacturing
44.2
36.0
36.4
Small Enterprises
43.6
35.0
35.1
Medium Enterprises
42.9
35.1
35.5
Large Enterprises
45.5
36.9
37.6
TOTAL
INDUSTRIAL SEGMENTS
BUSINESS SIZE
Technical specifications Sample profile: 2,772 enterprises, including 1,084 small, 1,063 medium and 625 large companies. Data collection period: January 4-13, 2016.
i
Learn more
For more information on the survey, including sectoral and regional results and methodology, kindly visit www.cni.org.br/icei (in Portuguese only)
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BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX | Monthly publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Board - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Rafael da Silva Vasconcelos, Roxana Maria Rossy Campos and Taryane Carvalho Perne | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic Design Supervision: Carla Gadêlha | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected]. br. This publication may be copied, provided that the source is mentioned.
ICEI
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX Lack of business confidence at the start of 2016 Industrial entrepreneurs in Brazil continue to show a deep and widespread lack of confidence in early 2016. In January, the Business Confidence Index (ICEI) hovered within the margin of error to 36.5 points. This result is up by 0.5 points from December 2015; down by 7.9 points from January 2015; and down by 14 points from the 50-point dividing line (figures below 50 points indicate a lack of business confidence).
36.5 54.9 (historical average)
lack of confidence
confidence
Historical series Index (0-100 points)*
Confidence
historical average: 54.9
53.1
56.7 50.0
Lack of confidence
44.4
36.5 36.0
Jan Apr 2013
Jul
Oct
Jan Apr 2014
Jul
Oct
Jan Apr 2015
Jul
Oct
Jan 2016
*Figures below 50 points indicate a lack of business confidence. The further below 50 points, the greater and more widespread the lack of confidence.
ICEI COMPONENTS JAN15
DEC15
JAN16
ICEI
44.4
36.0
36.5
Current conditions1 in relation to:
35.7
28.3
27.6
Brazilian economy
26.7
19.3
18.7
Company
40.3
32.9
32.2
48.7
39.8
40.9
Brazilian economy
38.6
29.9
30.4
Company
53.8
45.0
46.5
Expectations2 on:
Note: 1 - As compared to the last six months. 2 - For the next six months. The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate a better situation or optimistic expectations.
ICEI – BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX JAN15
DEC15
JAN16
44.4
36.0
36.5
Construction
44.6
35.0
35.1
Mining and quarrying
45.0
41.6
44.0
Manufacturing
44.2
36.0
36.4
Small Enterprises
43.6
35.0
35.1
Medium Enterprises
42.9
35.1
35.5
Large Enterprises
45.5
36.9
37.6
TOTAL
INDUSTRIAL SEGMENTS
BUSINESS SIZE
Technical specifications Sample profile: 2,772 enterprises, including 1,084 small, 1,063 medium and 625 large companies. Data collection period: January 4-13, 2016.
i
Learn more
For more information on the survey, including sectoral and regional results and methodology, kindly visit www.cni.org.br/icei (in Portuguese only)
Click here to print this document.
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX | Monthly publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Board - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Rafael da Silva Vasconcelos, Roxana Maria Rossy Campos and Taryane Carvalho Perne | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic Design Supervision: Carla Gadêlha | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected]. br. This publication may be copied, provided that the source is mentioned.
