business confidence index - Portal da Indústria
CNI Indicators ISSN 1676-2029 • Year 18 • Number 11 • November 2016
ICEI
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX Business confidence wanes After growing for five months, business confidence took a downturn in the last two months. In November, the Business Confidence Index (ICEI) reached 51.7 points, down by 0.6 points from October – within the margin of error for the index. Over the last two months, however, the ICEI edged down by 2.0 points, approaching once again the 50-point dividing line, the threshold between confidence and lack of confidence.
ICEI Thermometer Index (0-100 points)*
51.7 confidence
lack of confidence
54.1 (historical average)
Despite the results for the past two months, the index is significantly up from November last year: growth of 15.3 points.
Historical series Index (0-100 points)*
61.7
Confidence
53.7
historical average: 54.1
50.0
52.3
51.7 Nov/16
Lack of confidene
36,4 NOV 2010
MAY 2011
NOV
MAY 2012
NOV
MAY 2013
NOV
MAY 2014
NOV
MAY 2015
NOV
36,8
MAY 2016
NOV
*Figures below 50 points indicate lack of business confidence. The further below 50 points, the greater and more widespread the lack of confidence.
ICEI - Business Confidence Index ISSN 1676-2029 • Year 18 • Number 11 • November 2016
ICEI components The decline in the ICEI is explained by nearfuture prospects. The index of expectations for the next six months remains above 50 points (i.e. shows optimism), but is down by 1.0 point in November, accumulating a 2.9-point decline over the last two months. During the
same period, the current conditions index held virtually steady within the margin of error, still under the 50-point dividing line, indicating worsening business conditions.
Current conditions index Index (0-100 points)*
Improvement 50.0
44.0
43.3
43.8
SEP
OCT
NOV
56.8
55.8
OCT
NOV
Worsening
28.6
NOV 2015
DEC
JAN 2016
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
* The current conditions index varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points values indicate a better situation.
Expectations index Index (0-100 points)*
58.7 Optimism 50,0
Pessimism
40.4
NOV 2015
DEC
JAN 2016
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
* The expectations index varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate optimistic expectations.
2
ICEI - Business Confidence Index ISSN 1676-2029 • Year 18 • Number 11 • November 2016
ICEI Components NOV15
OCT16
NOV16
ICEI
36.4
52.3
51.7
Current conditions1 in relation to:
28.6
43.3
43.8
Brazilian economy
20.3
41.8
42.4
Company
33.0
44.1
44.5
40.4
56.8
55.8
Brazilian economy
31.2
54.6
53.1
Company
45.2
58.1
57.2
Expectations on: 2
Note: 1 - As compared to the last six months. 2 - For the next six months. The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate a better situation or optimistic expectations.
ICEI – BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX NOV15
OUT16
NOV16
36.4
52.3
51.7
Construction
36.0
50.1
50.3
Mining and quarrying
40.1
54.1
53.1
Manufacturing
36.4
52.7
52.1
Small Enterprises
35.3
48.7
48.7
Medium Enterprises
35.1
51.0
51.0
Large Enterprises
37.7
54.6
53.5
ICEI
INDUSTRIAL SEGMENTS
BUSINESS SIZE
The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate that entrepreneurs are confident.
Technical specifications Sample profile: 2,951 enterprises, including 1,162 small, 1,124 medium and 665 large companies. Data collection period: November 1-11, 2016.
i
Learn more For more information on the survey, including sectoral and regional results and methodology, kindly visit: www.cni.org.br/e_icei
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX | English version of “ICEI - Índice de Confiança do Empresário Industrial, novembro de 2016” | Monthly publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Board - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Marcelo Souza Azevedo, Roxana Maria Rossy Campos and Taryane Carvalho Perne | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic Design Supervision: Alisson Costa | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected]. This publication may be copied, provided that the source is mentioned.
ICEI
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX Business confidence wanes After growing for five months, business confidence took a downturn in the last two months. In November, the Business Confidence Index (ICEI) reached 51.7 points, down by 0.6 points from October – within the margin of error for the index. Over the last two months, however, the ICEI edged down by 2.0 points, approaching once again the 50-point dividing line, the threshold between confidence and lack of confidence.
ICEI Thermometer Index (0-100 points)*
51.7 confidence
lack of confidence
54.1 (historical average)
Despite the results for the past two months, the index is significantly up from November last year: growth of 15.3 points.
Historical series Index (0-100 points)*
61.7
Confidence
53.7
historical average: 54.1
50.0
52.3
51.7 Nov/16
Lack of confidene
36,4 NOV 2010
MAY 2011
NOV
MAY 2012
NOV
MAY 2013
NOV
MAY 2014
NOV
MAY 2015
NOV
36,8
MAY 2016
NOV
*Figures below 50 points indicate lack of business confidence. The further below 50 points, the greater and more widespread the lack of confidence.
ICEI - Business Confidence Index ISSN 1676-2029 • Year 18 • Number 11 • November 2016
ICEI components The decline in the ICEI is explained by nearfuture prospects. The index of expectations for the next six months remains above 50 points (i.e. shows optimism), but is down by 1.0 point in November, accumulating a 2.9-point decline over the last two months. During the
same period, the current conditions index held virtually steady within the margin of error, still under the 50-point dividing line, indicating worsening business conditions.
Current conditions index Index (0-100 points)*
Improvement 50.0
44.0
43.3
43.8
SEP
OCT
NOV
56.8
55.8
OCT
NOV
Worsening
28.6
NOV 2015
DEC
JAN 2016
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
* The current conditions index varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points values indicate a better situation.
Expectations index Index (0-100 points)*
58.7 Optimism 50,0
Pessimism
40.4
NOV 2015
DEC
JAN 2016
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
* The expectations index varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate optimistic expectations.
2
ICEI - Business Confidence Index ISSN 1676-2029 • Year 18 • Number 11 • November 2016
ICEI Components NOV15
OCT16
NOV16
ICEI
36.4
52.3
51.7
Current conditions1 in relation to:
28.6
43.3
43.8
Brazilian economy
20.3
41.8
42.4
Company
33.0
44.1
44.5
40.4
56.8
55.8
Brazilian economy
31.2
54.6
53.1
Company
45.2
58.1
57.2
Expectations on: 2
Note: 1 - As compared to the last six months. 2 - For the next six months. The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate a better situation or optimistic expectations.
ICEI – BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX NOV15
OUT16
NOV16
36.4
52.3
51.7
Construction
36.0
50.1
50.3
Mining and quarrying
40.1
54.1
53.1
Manufacturing
36.4
52.7
52.1
Small Enterprises
35.3
48.7
48.7
Medium Enterprises
35.1
51.0
51.0
Large Enterprises
37.7
54.6
53.5
ICEI
INDUSTRIAL SEGMENTS
BUSINESS SIZE
The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate that entrepreneurs are confident.
Technical specifications Sample profile: 2,951 enterprises, including 1,162 small, 1,124 medium and 665 large companies. Data collection period: November 1-11, 2016.
i
Learn more For more information on the survey, including sectoral and regional results and methodology, kindly visit: www.cni.org.br/e_icei
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX | English version of “ICEI - Índice de Confiança do Empresário Industrial, novembro de 2016” | Monthly publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Board - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Marcelo Souza Azevedo, Roxana Maria Rossy Campos and Taryane Carvalho Perne | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic Design Supervision: Alisson Costa | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected]. This publication may be copied, provided that the source is mentioned.
