business confidence index
CNI Indicators ISSN 1676-2029 • Year 18 • Number 10 • October 2016
ICEI
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX Upward trend in confidence comes to a halt After growing for five months, the Business Confidence Index (ICEI) is down on a month-overmonth basis. In October, the index amounted to 52.3 points, representing a 1.4-point decline from the figure recorded last month. The ICEI has a 1 point margin of error.
ICEI Thermometer
As a result of this drop, the ICEI moved away from its historical average (54.2 points), although it remains above the 50-point mark. Confidence is still significantly higher than it was a year ago: compared with October 2015, the index is up by 17.3 points.
lack of confidence
Index (0-100 points)
52.3 confidence
54.2 (historical average)
Historical series Index (0-100 points)
62.5 Confidence
53.7
historical average: 54.2
51.5
50.0
52.3
Oct/16 Lack of confidence
35.0 OCT 2010
APR 2011
OCT
APR 2012
OCT
APR 2013
OCT
APR 2014
OCT
APR 2015
OCT
APR 2016
OCT
Figures below 50 points indicate lack of business confidence. The further below 50 points, the greater and more widespread the lack of confidence.
ICEI - Business Confidence Index ISSN 1676-2029 • Year 18 • Number 10 • October 2016
ICEI components The decline in the ICEI is mainly explained by a reassessment of expectations. The expectations index edged down by 1.9 points from September to 56.8 points, but still shows optimism. The current conditions index, in turn, shrank from 44 points to 43.3 points, remaining below 50 points. This is to
say that entrepreneurs still believe that current business conditions have worsened. It is worth noting that both indices increased significantly in 12 months: by 17.5 points (expectations) and 16.8 points (current conditions).
Current conditions index Index (0 -100 points)
Improvement 50.0
44.0
Worsening
43.3 35.7
26.5
JAN 2015
APR
JUL
OCT
JAN 2016
APR
JUL
OCT
The current conditions index varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points values indicate a better situation.
Expectations index Index (0-100 points)
58.7 Optimism
56.8
50.0 48.7 Pessimism
39.3
JAN 2015
APR
JUL
OCT
JAN 2016
APR
The expectations index varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate optimistic expectations.
2
JUL
OCT
ICEI - Business Confidence Index ISSN 1676-2029 • Year 18 • Number 10 • October 2016
ICEI by company size The ICEI dropped across companies of all sizes considered in the survey, particularly in small and medium enterprises (down by 1.8 and 1.9 points, respectively). As a result of the decline, the ICEI
for small firms fell once again below the 50-point dividing line, indicating that small entrepreneurs are lacking confidence again.
ICEI by company size Index (0 -100 points)
Confidence
54.8 54.6
53.0
50.0
51.0 48.7
46.5 45.9
52.8 Lack of confidence
44.3 35.7 34.0 OCT 2013
FEB 2014
JUN
OCT
FEB 2015
Small
JUN
Medium
34.5
OCT
FEB 2016
JUN
OCT
Large
Figures below 50 points indicate lack of business confidence.
ICEI by industrial segment Manufacturing experienced the sharpest decline in confidence. Among companies in this industry, the ICEI edged down by 1.7 points between September and October. The indices for the mining and
quarrying and construction industries fluctuated within the 1.5 point margin of error applied to the indicators by segment.
ICEI by industrial segment Index (0-100 points)
55.6 Confidence 50.0
54.2 53.6
54.1 52.7
51.5
50.1 45.7
Lack of confidence
45.2
41.2 34.9 34.4
OCT 2013
FEB 2014
JUN
OCT
FEB 2015
Construction
JUN
Mining and quarrying
Figures below 50 points indicate lack of business confidence.
3
OCT
FEB 2016
Manufacturing
JUN
OCT
ICEI - Business Confidence Index ISSN 1676-2029 • Year 18 • Number 10 • October 2016
ICEI Components OCT15
SEP16
OUT16
ICEI
35.0
53.7
52.3
Current conditions1 in relation to:
26.5
44.0
43.3
Brazilian economy
17.3
41.7
41.8
Company
31.3
45.2
44.1
39.3
58.7
56.8
Brazilian economy
29.2
55.9
54.6
Company
44.5
60.2
58.1
Expectations on: 2
Note: 1 - As compared to the last six months. 2 - For the next six months. The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate a better situation or optimistic expectations.
ICEI – BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX OCT15
SEP16
OCT16
35.0
53.7
52.3
Construction
34.4
51.0
50.1
Mining and quarrying
41.2
53.9
54.1
Manufacturing
34.9
54.4
52.7
Small Enterprises
34.5
50.5
48.7
Medium Enterprises
34.0
52.9
51.0
Large Enterprises
35.7
55.7
54.6
ICEI
INDUSTRIAL SEGMENTS
BUSINESS SIZE
The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate that entrepreneurs are confident.
Technical specifications Sample profile: 3,048 enterprises, including 1,198 small, 1,152 medium and 698 large companies. Data collection period: October 3-14, 2016.
i
Learn more For more information on the survey, including sectoral and regional results and methodology, kindly visit: www.cni.org.br/e_icei
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX | English version of “ICEI - Índice de Confiança do Empresário Industrial, outubro de 2016” | Monthly publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Board - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Marcelo Souza Azevedo, Roxana Maria Rossy Campos and Taryane Carvalho Perne | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic Design Supervision: Alisson Costa | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected]. This publication may be copied, provided that the source is mentioned.
ICEI
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX Upward trend in confidence comes to a halt After growing for five months, the Business Confidence Index (ICEI) is down on a month-overmonth basis. In October, the index amounted to 52.3 points, representing a 1.4-point decline from the figure recorded last month. The ICEI has a 1 point margin of error.
ICEI Thermometer
As a result of this drop, the ICEI moved away from its historical average (54.2 points), although it remains above the 50-point mark. Confidence is still significantly higher than it was a year ago: compared with October 2015, the index is up by 17.3 points.
lack of confidence
Index (0-100 points)
52.3 confidence
54.2 (historical average)
Historical series Index (0-100 points)
62.5 Confidence
53.7
historical average: 54.2
51.5
50.0
52.3
Oct/16 Lack of confidence
35.0 OCT 2010
APR 2011
OCT
APR 2012
OCT
APR 2013
OCT
APR 2014
OCT
APR 2015
OCT
APR 2016
OCT
Figures below 50 points indicate lack of business confidence. The further below 50 points, the greater and more widespread the lack of confidence.
ICEI - Business Confidence Index ISSN 1676-2029 • Year 18 • Number 10 • October 2016
ICEI components The decline in the ICEI is mainly explained by a reassessment of expectations. The expectations index edged down by 1.9 points from September to 56.8 points, but still shows optimism. The current conditions index, in turn, shrank from 44 points to 43.3 points, remaining below 50 points. This is to
say that entrepreneurs still believe that current business conditions have worsened. It is worth noting that both indices increased significantly in 12 months: by 17.5 points (expectations) and 16.8 points (current conditions).
Current conditions index Index (0 -100 points)
Improvement 50.0
44.0
Worsening
43.3 35.7
26.5
JAN 2015
APR
JUL
OCT
JAN 2016
APR
JUL
OCT
The current conditions index varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points values indicate a better situation.
Expectations index Index (0-100 points)
58.7 Optimism
56.8
50.0 48.7 Pessimism
39.3
JAN 2015
APR
JUL
OCT
JAN 2016
APR
The expectations index varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate optimistic expectations.
2
JUL
OCT
ICEI - Business Confidence Index ISSN 1676-2029 • Year 18 • Number 10 • October 2016
ICEI by company size The ICEI dropped across companies of all sizes considered in the survey, particularly in small and medium enterprises (down by 1.8 and 1.9 points, respectively). As a result of the decline, the ICEI
for small firms fell once again below the 50-point dividing line, indicating that small entrepreneurs are lacking confidence again.
ICEI by company size Index (0 -100 points)
Confidence
54.8 54.6
53.0
50.0
51.0 48.7
46.5 45.9
52.8 Lack of confidence
44.3 35.7 34.0 OCT 2013
FEB 2014
JUN
OCT
FEB 2015
Small
JUN
Medium
34.5
OCT
FEB 2016
JUN
OCT
Large
Figures below 50 points indicate lack of business confidence.
ICEI by industrial segment Manufacturing experienced the sharpest decline in confidence. Among companies in this industry, the ICEI edged down by 1.7 points between September and October. The indices for the mining and
quarrying and construction industries fluctuated within the 1.5 point margin of error applied to the indicators by segment.
ICEI by industrial segment Index (0-100 points)
55.6 Confidence 50.0
54.2 53.6
54.1 52.7
51.5
50.1 45.7
Lack of confidence
45.2
41.2 34.9 34.4
OCT 2013
FEB 2014
JUN
OCT
FEB 2015
Construction
JUN
Mining and quarrying
Figures below 50 points indicate lack of business confidence.
3
OCT
FEB 2016
Manufacturing
JUN
OCT
ICEI - Business Confidence Index ISSN 1676-2029 • Year 18 • Number 10 • October 2016
ICEI Components OCT15
SEP16
OUT16
ICEI
35.0
53.7
52.3
Current conditions1 in relation to:
26.5
44.0
43.3
Brazilian economy
17.3
41.7
41.8
Company
31.3
45.2
44.1
39.3
58.7
56.8
Brazilian economy
29.2
55.9
54.6
Company
44.5
60.2
58.1
Expectations on: 2
Note: 1 - As compared to the last six months. 2 - For the next six months. The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate a better situation or optimistic expectations.
ICEI – BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX OCT15
SEP16
OCT16
35.0
53.7
52.3
Construction
34.4
51.0
50.1
Mining and quarrying
41.2
53.9
54.1
Manufacturing
34.9
54.4
52.7
Small Enterprises
34.5
50.5
48.7
Medium Enterprises
34.0
52.9
51.0
Large Enterprises
35.7
55.7
54.6
ICEI
INDUSTRIAL SEGMENTS
BUSINESS SIZE
The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate that entrepreneurs are confident.
Technical specifications Sample profile: 3,048 enterprises, including 1,198 small, 1,152 medium and 698 large companies. Data collection period: October 3-14, 2016.
i
Learn more For more information on the survey, including sectoral and regional results and methodology, kindly visit: www.cni.org.br/e_icei
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX | English version of “ICEI - Índice de Confiança do Empresário Industrial, outubro de 2016” | Monthly publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Board - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Marcelo Souza Azevedo, Roxana Maria Rossy Campos and Taryane Carvalho Perne | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic Design Supervision: Alisson Costa | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected]. This publication may be copied, provided that the source is mentioned.
