business confidence index
CNI Indicators ISSN 1676-2029 • Year 19 • Number 1 • January 2017
ICEI
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX Confidence grows again after three months ICEI Thermometer
The Business Confidence Index (ICEI) started the year with growth. After falling in the previous three months, the ICEI increased by 2.1 points between December 2016 and January 2017. As a result of this growth, the index rose to 50.1 points, standing virtually on the dividing line between confidence and lack of confidence among entrepreneurs.
Index (0-100 points)*
50.1 confidence
lack of confidence
In January 2017, the ICEI is up by 13.6 points from the same month in 2016.
54.1 (historical average)
Historical series Index (0-100 points)*
Confidence
53.7
historical average: 54.1
50.0
50.1 48.0
Jan/17
Lack of confidence
36.5 JAN 2011
JUL
JAN 2012
JUL
JAN 2013
JUL
JAN 2014
JUL
JAN 2015
JUL
JAN 2016
JUL
JAN 2017
*Figures below 50 points indicate lack of business confidence. The further below 50 points, the greater and more widespread the lack of confidence.
ICEI - Business Confidence Index ISSN 1676-2029 • Year 19 • Number 1 • January 2017
ICEI components The increase in the confidence index was led by a more optimistic outlook by entrepreneurs. The expectations index – one of the components making up the ICEI – grew by 3.1 points on a month-over-month basis. Expectations about the Brazilian economy, which were pessimistic in December, are now neutral, while prospects
for one’s own company have become more positive, with the index growing by 2.6 points. The current conditions index in turn hovered within its margin of error after edging up by 0.5 points. At 41.2 points, the index remains below the dividing line, reflecting the continued deterioration in current conditions.
Current conditions index Index (0-100 points)*
Improvement 50.0
43.8 Worsening
40.7
41.2
DEC
JAN 2017
27.6
JAN 2016
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
* The current conditions index varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points values indicate a better situation.
Expectations index Index (0-100 points)*
55.8
Optimism
54.7 51.6
50.0
Pessimism
40.9
JAN 2016
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
* The expectations index varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate optimistic expectations.
2
DEC
JAN 2017
ICEI - Business Confidence Index ISSN 1676-2029 • Year 19 • Number 1 • January 2017
ICEI Components JAN16
DEC16
JAN17
ICEI
36.5
48.0
50.1
Current conditions1 in relation to:
27.6
40.7
41.2
Brazilian economy
18.7
37.0
38.2
Company
32.2
42.6
42.8
40.9
51.6
54.7
Brazilian economy
30.4
46.4
50.2
Company
46.5
54.3
56.9
Expectations on: 2
Note: 1 - As compared to the last six months. 2 - For the next six months. The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate a better situation or optimistic expectations.
ICEI – BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX JAN16
DEZ16
JAN17
36.5
48.0
50.1
Construction
35.1
46.3
48.2
Mining and quarrying
44.0
49.7
50.9
Manufacturing
36.4
48.3
50.6
Small Enterprises
35.1
44.4
46.3
Medium Enterprises
35.5
46.7
48.6
Large Enterprises
37.6
50.3
52.7
ICEI
INDUSTRIAL SEGMENTS
BUSINESS SIZE
The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate that entrepreneurs are confident.
Technical specifications Sample profile: 2,971 enterprises, including 1,088 small, 1,056 medium and 647 large companies. Data collection period: January 3-13, 2017.
i
Learn more For more information on the survey, including sectoral and regional results and methodology, kindly visit: www.cni.org.br/e_icei
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX | English version of “ICEI - Índice de Confiança do Empresário Industrial, janeiro 2017” | Monthly publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Board - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Marcelo Souza Azevedo, Roxana Maria Rossy Campos and Taryane Carvalho Perne | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic Design Supervision: Alisson Costa | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected]. This publication may be copied, provided that the source is mentioned.
ICEI
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX Confidence grows again after three months ICEI Thermometer
The Business Confidence Index (ICEI) started the year with growth. After falling in the previous three months, the ICEI increased by 2.1 points between December 2016 and January 2017. As a result of this growth, the index rose to 50.1 points, standing virtually on the dividing line between confidence and lack of confidence among entrepreneurs.
Index (0-100 points)*
50.1 confidence
lack of confidence
In January 2017, the ICEI is up by 13.6 points from the same month in 2016.
54.1 (historical average)
Historical series Index (0-100 points)*
Confidence
53.7
historical average: 54.1
50.0
50.1 48.0
Jan/17
Lack of confidence
36.5 JAN 2011
JUL
JAN 2012
JUL
JAN 2013
JUL
JAN 2014
JUL
JAN 2015
JUL
JAN 2016
JUL
JAN 2017
*Figures below 50 points indicate lack of business confidence. The further below 50 points, the greater and more widespread the lack of confidence.
ICEI - Business Confidence Index ISSN 1676-2029 • Year 19 • Number 1 • January 2017
ICEI components The increase in the confidence index was led by a more optimistic outlook by entrepreneurs. The expectations index – one of the components making up the ICEI – grew by 3.1 points on a month-over-month basis. Expectations about the Brazilian economy, which were pessimistic in December, are now neutral, while prospects
for one’s own company have become more positive, with the index growing by 2.6 points. The current conditions index in turn hovered within its margin of error after edging up by 0.5 points. At 41.2 points, the index remains below the dividing line, reflecting the continued deterioration in current conditions.
Current conditions index Index (0-100 points)*
Improvement 50.0
43.8 Worsening
40.7
41.2
DEC
JAN 2017
27.6
JAN 2016
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
* The current conditions index varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points values indicate a better situation.
Expectations index Index (0-100 points)*
55.8
Optimism
54.7 51.6
50.0
Pessimism
40.9
JAN 2016
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
* The expectations index varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate optimistic expectations.
2
DEC
JAN 2017
ICEI - Business Confidence Index ISSN 1676-2029 • Year 19 • Number 1 • January 2017
ICEI Components JAN16
DEC16
JAN17
ICEI
36.5
48.0
50.1
Current conditions1 in relation to:
27.6
40.7
41.2
Brazilian economy
18.7
37.0
38.2
Company
32.2
42.6
42.8
40.9
51.6
54.7
Brazilian economy
30.4
46.4
50.2
Company
46.5
54.3
56.9
Expectations on: 2
Note: 1 - As compared to the last six months. 2 - For the next six months. The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate a better situation or optimistic expectations.
ICEI – BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX JAN16
DEZ16
JAN17
36.5
48.0
50.1
Construction
35.1
46.3
48.2
Mining and quarrying
44.0
49.7
50.9
Manufacturing
36.4
48.3
50.6
Small Enterprises
35.1
44.4
46.3
Medium Enterprises
35.5
46.7
48.6
Large Enterprises
37.6
50.3
52.7
ICEI
INDUSTRIAL SEGMENTS
BUSINESS SIZE
The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate that entrepreneurs are confident.
Technical specifications Sample profile: 2,971 enterprises, including 1,088 small, 1,056 medium and 647 large companies. Data collection period: January 3-13, 2017.
i
Learn more For more information on the survey, including sectoral and regional results and methodology, kindly visit: www.cni.org.br/e_icei
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX | English version of “ICEI - Índice de Confiança do Empresário Industrial, janeiro 2017” | Monthly publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Board - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Marcelo Souza Azevedo, Roxana Maria Rossy Campos and Taryane Carvalho Perne | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic Design Supervision: Alisson Costa | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected]. This publication may be copied, provided that the source is mentioned.
