construction industry survey - Portal da Indústria
CNI indicators ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 7 • Number 4 • April 2016
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY SURVEY Current scenario remains negative, but pessimism is falling Both activity levels and number of employees in the construction industry are down in April. Activity is below usual levels and operating capacity utilization hit an all-time low in the historical series in April. On the other hand, entrepreneurs’ expectations are somewhat less pessimistic. The indicators of expected activity levels and purchases of inputs
and raw materials have been showing a decline in pessimism since February (except for April). In the January-May period, the indicators rose by 2.9 points and 3.4 points, respectively. The expectation indices range from 0 to 100 points, with readings below 50 points indicating an expected decline. The lower the index, the more intense and widespread the pessimism.
Expectations Indices* Diffusion index (0-100 points)
40.6 40
38
36
39.7 37.7
36.3
JAN 2016
FEB
MAR
APR
Expected activity levels Expected purchases of inputs and raw materials * The indices range from 0 to 100 points. Figures above 50 points indicate an expected increase.
MAY
CNI indicators ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 7 • Number 4 • April 2016
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE IN APRIL 2016
Activity and employment down in April The indices of activity level and number of employees remain below the 50-point mark, indicating a month-overmonth decline in both activity and jobs in April. The rate of decline had been falling since January, but sped up in April. The activity indicator fell by 1.1 points between March and April, down from 37.5 points to 36.4 points. On the same comparison basis, the indicator of number of employees declined from 36.6 points to 35.7 points, representing a 0.9-point decline.
Activity level index* Diffusion index (0-100 points)
Increase 50 Decrease
35.9
SEP 2015
36.7
37.5 36.4
36.3 35.2
OCT
NOV
33.3
33.6
DEC
JAN 2016
FEB
MAR
APR
*The index varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate a month-over-month increase in activity level.
Operating capacity utilization hits record low Actual-usual activity levels held virtually steady at 26.4 points between March and April. The figure is significantly down from the 50-point dividing line, meaning that activity is well below usual levels for the month.
Utilization rate of operating capacity Percentage (%)
75 70
70 65 60
A weak activity has driven down the operating capacity utilization rate in the construction industry. The index stood at 54% in April, down by 12 percentage points from its historical average. This is an all-time low in the series started in January 2012.
57
55
54 Apr/16
50
JAN 2012
MAY
SEP
JAN MAY 2013
2
SEP
JAN 2014
MAY
SEP
JAN MAY 2015
SEP
JAN 2016
CNI indicators ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 7 • Number 4 • April 2016
EXPECTATIONS OF CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY IN MAY 2016
Pessimism in construction industry reduces All expectations indices are below 50 points, indicating an expected decline in activity level, number of employees, purchases of inputs and raw materials, and new developments and services. It is worth stressing, however, that pessimism has been partly reduced. The indices
of expected activity level and purchases of inputs and raw materials increased by 0.9 points and 1.4 points from April to May, standing at 40.6 points and 39.7 points, respectively. Both indices have been recovering since the beginning of 2016.
Expectations Indices* Diffusion indexes (0-100 points)
Activity level
New developments and services
Increase 50
Increase 50
Decrease
Decrease
44.1
43.1 40.6 37.7
39.7
APR 2015
JUN
AUG
OCT
Activity level
DEC
FEB 2016
APR
APR 2015
Dividing line
JUN
AUG
OCT
DEC
New developments and services
Purchases of inputs and raw materials
Number of employees
Increase 50
Increase 50
Decrease
Decrease
43.5
FEB 2016
37.7
APR
Dividing line
42.6 39.7 38.4 38.3
APR 2015
JUN
AUG
OCT
DEC
Purchase of inputs and raw materials
FEB 2016
38.2
APR
APR 2015
Dividing line
JUN
AUG
OCT
Number of employees
* The indices range from 0 to 100 points. Figures above 50 points indicate an expected increase.
3
DEC
FEB 2016
Dividing line
APR
CNI indicators ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 7 • Number 4 • April 2016
Investment intentions remain low Investment intentions*
For the third month in a row, investment intentions of construction entrepreneurs fell to a record low in the historical series started in November 2013. The indicator dropped from 23.4 points in April to 23.2 in May.
Diffusion indices (0-100 points)
38
35.9 34
30
26
23.4 22
23.2 May/16 FEB 2015
APR
JUN
AUG
OCT
DEC
FEB 2016
APR
* The index varies in the 0-100 interval. The higher the index, the more likely industry is to invest.
Results by company size Monthly evolution of construction industry Operation Capacity Utilization (%)1
Activity Level2
Actual-Usual Activity Level3
Number of Employees2
Apr/15
Mar/16
Apr/16
Apr/15
Mar/16
Apr/16
Apr/15
Mar/16
Apr/16
Apr/15
Mar/16
Apr/16
60
57
54
36.5
37.5
36.4
29.4
26.3
26.4
36.3
36.6
35.7
SMALL
55
54
52
38.8
36.7
37.5
32.9
28.3
27.4
37.6
35.8
37.3
MEDIUM
60
55
54
36.4
39.0
37.4
30.7
27.1
26.0
37.3
37.4
35.9
LARGE
62
60
55
35.7
36.9
35.4
27.4
25.2
26.2
35.2
36.5
35.0
CONSTRUCTION
Expectations New Developments and Services4
Activity Level4
Purchases of Inputs and Raw Materials4
Investment intentions5
Number of Employees4
May/15
Apr/16
May/16
May/15
Apr/16
May/16
May/15
Apr/16
May/16
May/15
Apr/16
May/16
May/15
Apr/16
May/16
CONSTRUCTION
40.4
39.7
40.6
39.5
37.7
37.7
38.7
38.3
39.7
38.4
38.2
38.4
29.3
23.4
23.2
SMALL
41.8
42.7
44.2
41.4
40.6
41.3
41.1
40.9
41.1
41.7
41.2
41.0
32.8
22.5
21.3
MEDIUM
41.8
40.8
40.4
40.6
39.7
38.0
40.6
39.0
39.8
40.5
38.3
38.3
30.3
22.8
23.1
LARGE
39.0
37.9
39.3
38.1
35.5
36.2
36.8
37.0
39.1
36.0
37.0
37.5
27.4
24.0
23.9
1 The indicator varies in the 0%-100% interval. Series started in January 2012. 2 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate growth. 3 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate higherthan-usual activity levels.
i
4 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate positive expectations. 5 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. The higher the figure, the more entrepreneurs are likely to invest.
Learn more
Technical specifications
For more information about the survey, including historical series and methodology, please visit: www.cni.org.br/e_sondconstr
Sample profile: 607 enterprises, including 191 small, 274 medium and 142 large companies. Data collection period: May 2-12, 2016.
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY SURVEY | English version of Sondagem Indústria da Construção, Abril de 2016 | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www. cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Board - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flavio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Flavia Coelho Branco Junqueira Ferraz, Luis Fernando Melo Mendes (CBIC), Roxana Campos and Taryane Carvalho Perne | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic Design Supervision: Alisson Costa | Subscriptions: Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected]. This publication may be copied, provided that the source is mentioned.
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY SURVEY Current scenario remains negative, but pessimism is falling Both activity levels and number of employees in the construction industry are down in April. Activity is below usual levels and operating capacity utilization hit an all-time low in the historical series in April. On the other hand, entrepreneurs’ expectations are somewhat less pessimistic. The indicators of expected activity levels and purchases of inputs
and raw materials have been showing a decline in pessimism since February (except for April). In the January-May period, the indicators rose by 2.9 points and 3.4 points, respectively. The expectation indices range from 0 to 100 points, with readings below 50 points indicating an expected decline. The lower the index, the more intense and widespread the pessimism.
Expectations Indices* Diffusion index (0-100 points)
40.6 40
38
36
39.7 37.7
36.3
JAN 2016
FEB
MAR
APR
Expected activity levels Expected purchases of inputs and raw materials * The indices range from 0 to 100 points. Figures above 50 points indicate an expected increase.
MAY
CNI indicators ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 7 • Number 4 • April 2016
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE IN APRIL 2016
Activity and employment down in April The indices of activity level and number of employees remain below the 50-point mark, indicating a month-overmonth decline in both activity and jobs in April. The rate of decline had been falling since January, but sped up in April. The activity indicator fell by 1.1 points between March and April, down from 37.5 points to 36.4 points. On the same comparison basis, the indicator of number of employees declined from 36.6 points to 35.7 points, representing a 0.9-point decline.
Activity level index* Diffusion index (0-100 points)
Increase 50 Decrease
35.9
SEP 2015
36.7
37.5 36.4
36.3 35.2
OCT
NOV
33.3
33.6
DEC
JAN 2016
FEB
MAR
APR
*The index varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate a month-over-month increase in activity level.
Operating capacity utilization hits record low Actual-usual activity levels held virtually steady at 26.4 points between March and April. The figure is significantly down from the 50-point dividing line, meaning that activity is well below usual levels for the month.
Utilization rate of operating capacity Percentage (%)
75 70
70 65 60
A weak activity has driven down the operating capacity utilization rate in the construction industry. The index stood at 54% in April, down by 12 percentage points from its historical average. This is an all-time low in the series started in January 2012.
57
55
54 Apr/16
50
JAN 2012
MAY
SEP
JAN MAY 2013
2
SEP
JAN 2014
MAY
SEP
JAN MAY 2015
SEP
JAN 2016
CNI indicators ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 7 • Number 4 • April 2016
EXPECTATIONS OF CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY IN MAY 2016
Pessimism in construction industry reduces All expectations indices are below 50 points, indicating an expected decline in activity level, number of employees, purchases of inputs and raw materials, and new developments and services. It is worth stressing, however, that pessimism has been partly reduced. The indices
of expected activity level and purchases of inputs and raw materials increased by 0.9 points and 1.4 points from April to May, standing at 40.6 points and 39.7 points, respectively. Both indices have been recovering since the beginning of 2016.
Expectations Indices* Diffusion indexes (0-100 points)
Activity level
New developments and services
Increase 50
Increase 50
Decrease
Decrease
44.1
43.1 40.6 37.7
39.7
APR 2015
JUN
AUG
OCT
Activity level
DEC
FEB 2016
APR
APR 2015
Dividing line
JUN
AUG
OCT
DEC
New developments and services
Purchases of inputs and raw materials
Number of employees
Increase 50
Increase 50
Decrease
Decrease
43.5
FEB 2016
37.7
APR
Dividing line
42.6 39.7 38.4 38.3
APR 2015
JUN
AUG
OCT
DEC
Purchase of inputs and raw materials
FEB 2016
38.2
APR
APR 2015
Dividing line
JUN
AUG
OCT
Number of employees
* The indices range from 0 to 100 points. Figures above 50 points indicate an expected increase.
3
DEC
FEB 2016
Dividing line
APR
CNI indicators ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 7 • Number 4 • April 2016
Investment intentions remain low Investment intentions*
For the third month in a row, investment intentions of construction entrepreneurs fell to a record low in the historical series started in November 2013. The indicator dropped from 23.4 points in April to 23.2 in May.
Diffusion indices (0-100 points)
38
35.9 34
30
26
23.4 22
23.2 May/16 FEB 2015
APR
JUN
AUG
OCT
DEC
FEB 2016
APR
* The index varies in the 0-100 interval. The higher the index, the more likely industry is to invest.
Results by company size Monthly evolution of construction industry Operation Capacity Utilization (%)1
Activity Level2
Actual-Usual Activity Level3
Number of Employees2
Apr/15
Mar/16
Apr/16
Apr/15
Mar/16
Apr/16
Apr/15
Mar/16
Apr/16
Apr/15
Mar/16
Apr/16
60
57
54
36.5
37.5
36.4
29.4
26.3
26.4
36.3
36.6
35.7
SMALL
55
54
52
38.8
36.7
37.5
32.9
28.3
27.4
37.6
35.8
37.3
MEDIUM
60
55
54
36.4
39.0
37.4
30.7
27.1
26.0
37.3
37.4
35.9
LARGE
62
60
55
35.7
36.9
35.4
27.4
25.2
26.2
35.2
36.5
35.0
CONSTRUCTION
Expectations New Developments and Services4
Activity Level4
Purchases of Inputs and Raw Materials4
Investment intentions5
Number of Employees4
May/15
Apr/16
May/16
May/15
Apr/16
May/16
May/15
Apr/16
May/16
May/15
Apr/16
May/16
May/15
Apr/16
May/16
CONSTRUCTION
40.4
39.7
40.6
39.5
37.7
37.7
38.7
38.3
39.7
38.4
38.2
38.4
29.3
23.4
23.2
SMALL
41.8
42.7
44.2
41.4
40.6
41.3
41.1
40.9
41.1
41.7
41.2
41.0
32.8
22.5
21.3
MEDIUM
41.8
40.8
40.4
40.6
39.7
38.0
40.6
39.0
39.8
40.5
38.3
38.3
30.3
22.8
23.1
LARGE
39.0
37.9
39.3
38.1
35.5
36.2
36.8
37.0
39.1
36.0
37.0
37.5
27.4
24.0
23.9
1 The indicator varies in the 0%-100% interval. Series started in January 2012. 2 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate growth. 3 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate higherthan-usual activity levels.
i
4 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate positive expectations. 5 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. The higher the figure, the more entrepreneurs are likely to invest.
Learn more
Technical specifications
For more information about the survey, including historical series and methodology, please visit: www.cni.org.br/e_sondconstr
Sample profile: 607 enterprises, including 191 small, 274 medium and 142 large companies. Data collection period: May 2-12, 2016.
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY SURVEY | English version of Sondagem Indústria da Construção, Abril de 2016 | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www. cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Board - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flavio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Flavia Coelho Branco Junqueira Ferraz, Luis Fernando Melo Mendes (CBIC), Roxana Campos and Taryane Carvalho Perne | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic Design Supervision: Alisson Costa | Subscriptions: Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected]. This publication may be copied, provided that the source is mentioned.
