construction industry survey - Portal da Indústria
CNI indicators ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 7 • Number 2 • February 2016
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY SURVEY Activity levels fall at slower pace in February Activity in the construction industry continues to fall, but at a lower rate. The activity level index rose from 33.6 points in January to 35.2 points in February. Also on a month-to-month basis, the number of employees indicator moved up from 33.8 points to 35.5 points.
Construction entrepreneurs are less pessimistic. The indicators of activity, employment and purchases of inputs and raw materials hit their highest levels since August 2015, though they still remain significantly below 50 points. The expectation indices range from 0 to 100 points, with readings below 50 indicating an expected decline. The lower the index, the more intense and widespread the pessimism.
Activity level index* Diffusion index (0-100 points)
Increase 50 Decrease
36.2
AUG 2015
35.9
SEP
36.7
36.3 35.2
OCT
NOV
33.3
33.6
DEC
JAN 2016
*The index ranges from 0 to 100. Figures above 50 points indicate increased activity levels.
FEB
CNI indicators ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 7 • Number 2 • February 2016
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE IN FEBRUARY 2016
Activity significantly below usual levels Activity drifted further away from usual levels. The actual-usual activity levels index hit 25.3 points, an all-time low, down by 1.2 points from the January figure. The scenario of low activity levels is also reflected in low operating capacity
utilization rates. From January to February, operating capacity utilization held steady at 56%, but is down by four percentage points from February 2015 and by 10 percentage points from its historical average.
Index of actual-usual activity levels* Diffusion index (0-100 points)
Higher 53.9 than usual 50 Lower than usual
40.5
25.3 Feb/16 DEC JUN 2009 2010
DEC
JUN 2011
DEC
JUN 2012
DEC
JUN 2013
DEC
JUN 2014
DEC
JUN 2015
DEC
* The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate higher-than-usual activity levels.
EXPECTATIONS IN CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY IN MARCH 2016
Less pessimistic expectations The expectations indicators showed reduced pessimism for the second consecutive month. March’s figures were the highest since August 2015, although they remain far short of the 50-point mark. The indicator of expected new developments and services was the exception, as it remained unchanged at 38.1 points in March. • COMPANY SIZE
The behavior of small companies differed from that of other firms. The expectations indicators showed greater pessimism in March as compared
2
to February levels. The only exception was the number of employees indicator, which fluctuated within the margin of error, edging up from 40.5 points in February to 41.0 points in March. • SECTOR
The Civil engineering sector was the main driver of the reduction in construction industry pessimism. While all expectations indicators – except for that of new projects and services – posted growth, they still remain below the 50-point mark.
CNI indicators ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 7 • Number 2 • February 2016
Expectations Indices* Diffusion indexes (0-100 points)
Activity level
New developments and services
Increase 50
Increase 50
Decrease
Decrease
40.6
43.2
42.4 38.1 39.8 37.7
MAR 2015
MAY
JUL
SEP
Activity level
NOV
JAN 2016
37.1
MAR 2015
MAR
Dividing line
MAY
SEP
NOV
New developments and services
Purchase of inputs and raw materials
Number of employees
Increase 50
Increase 50
Decrease
Decrease
42.0
JUL
39.3
JUL
SEP
Purchase of inputs and raw materials
NOV
JAN 2016
37.0
MAR 2015
MAR
Dividing line
MAY
JUL
SEP
Number of employees
* The indices range from 0 to 100 points. Figures above 50 points indicate growth expectations.
3
MAR
39.2
41.7
38.1
MAY
JAN 2016
Dividing line
36.3
MAR 2015
38.1
NOV
JAN 2016
Dividing line
38.5
MAR
CNI indicators ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 7 • Number 2 • February 2016
Investment intentions dwindling Investment intentions index*
In March, investment intentions hit an all-time low of 23.5 points in the series started in November 2013. While expectations are less pessimistic as compared to the previous month, a scenario of high idleness levels in the construction industry has hampered investment intentions, hence the continued decline in the investment intentions indicator.
Diffusion index (0-100 points)
60
55.2 50 40 30
25.9
20
23.5
10
NOV
FEB 2014
MAY
AUG
NOV
FEB 2015
MAY
AUG
NOV
FEB MAR 2016
* The index ranges from 0 to 100 points. The higher the index, the more likely industry is to invest.
Results by company size Monthly evolution of construction industry Operation Capacity Utilization (%)1
Activity Level2
Actual-Usual Activity Level3
Number of Employees2
Feb/15
Jan/16
Feb/16
Feb/15
Jan/16
Feb/16
Feb/15
Jan/16
Feb/16
Feb/15
Jan/16
Feb/16
60
56
56
36.6
33.6
35.2
33.2
26.5
25.3
36.4
33.8
35.5
SMALL
57
55
52
37.4
35.8
35.7
35.8
29.0
28.2
40.3
36.9
36.6
MEDIUM
57
55
54
37.2
33.2
36.7
31.2
25.9
26.0
37.2
34.2
37.4
LARGE
62
56
58
35.9
33.0
34.2
33.4
25.9
23.8
34.5
32.5
34.0
CONSTRUCTION
Expectations New Developments and Services4
Activity Level4
Purchases of Inputs and Raw Materials4
Investment intentions5
Number of Employees4
Mar/15
Feb/16
Mar/16
Mar/15
Feb/16
Mar/16
Mar/15
Feb/16
Mar/16
Mar/15
Feb/16
Mar/16
Mar/15
Feb/16
Mar/16
CONSTRUCTION
43.2
39.8
40.6
42.4
38.1
38.1
42.0
38.1
39.3
41.7
38.5
39.2
34.5
25.9
23.5
SMALL
45.8
42.5
41.5
45.0
40.4
38.7
44.8
40.1
38.4
43.9
40.5
41.0
37.3
25.0
24.0
MEDIUM
44.6
40.3
40.6
43.4
39.3
40.2
43.2
38.9
39.7
43.5
39.7
40.0
34.7
26.0
23.7
LARGE
41.4
38.5
40.3
40.8
36.5
36.7
40.2
36.9
39.4
39.9
37.1
38.1
33.4
26.2
23.2
1 The indicator varies in the 0%-100% interval. Series started in January 2012. 2 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate growth. 3 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate higherthan-usual activity levels.
i
4 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate positive expectations. 5 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. The higher the figure, the more entrepreneurs are likely to invest.
Learn more
Technical specifications
For more information about the survey, including historical series and methodology, please visit: www.cni.org.br/sondconstr
Sample profile: 593 enterprises, including 183 small, 267 medium and 143 large companies. Data collection period: March 1-10, 2016.
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY SURVEY | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Board - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flavio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Marcelo Souza Azevedo, Luis Fernando Melo Mendes (CBIC), Roxana Campos and Taryane Carvalho Perne | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic Design Supervision: Alisson Costa | Subscriptions: Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected]. This publication may be copied, provided that the source is mentioned.
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY SURVEY Activity levels fall at slower pace in February Activity in the construction industry continues to fall, but at a lower rate. The activity level index rose from 33.6 points in January to 35.2 points in February. Also on a month-to-month basis, the number of employees indicator moved up from 33.8 points to 35.5 points.
Construction entrepreneurs are less pessimistic. The indicators of activity, employment and purchases of inputs and raw materials hit their highest levels since August 2015, though they still remain significantly below 50 points. The expectation indices range from 0 to 100 points, with readings below 50 indicating an expected decline. The lower the index, the more intense and widespread the pessimism.
Activity level index* Diffusion index (0-100 points)
Increase 50 Decrease
36.2
AUG 2015
35.9
SEP
36.7
36.3 35.2
OCT
NOV
33.3
33.6
DEC
JAN 2016
*The index ranges from 0 to 100. Figures above 50 points indicate increased activity levels.
FEB
CNI indicators ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 7 • Number 2 • February 2016
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE IN FEBRUARY 2016
Activity significantly below usual levels Activity drifted further away from usual levels. The actual-usual activity levels index hit 25.3 points, an all-time low, down by 1.2 points from the January figure. The scenario of low activity levels is also reflected in low operating capacity
utilization rates. From January to February, operating capacity utilization held steady at 56%, but is down by four percentage points from February 2015 and by 10 percentage points from its historical average.
Index of actual-usual activity levels* Diffusion index (0-100 points)
Higher 53.9 than usual 50 Lower than usual
40.5
25.3 Feb/16 DEC JUN 2009 2010
DEC
JUN 2011
DEC
JUN 2012
DEC
JUN 2013
DEC
JUN 2014
DEC
JUN 2015
DEC
* The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate higher-than-usual activity levels.
EXPECTATIONS IN CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY IN MARCH 2016
Less pessimistic expectations The expectations indicators showed reduced pessimism for the second consecutive month. March’s figures were the highest since August 2015, although they remain far short of the 50-point mark. The indicator of expected new developments and services was the exception, as it remained unchanged at 38.1 points in March. • COMPANY SIZE
The behavior of small companies differed from that of other firms. The expectations indicators showed greater pessimism in March as compared
2
to February levels. The only exception was the number of employees indicator, which fluctuated within the margin of error, edging up from 40.5 points in February to 41.0 points in March. • SECTOR
The Civil engineering sector was the main driver of the reduction in construction industry pessimism. While all expectations indicators – except for that of new projects and services – posted growth, they still remain below the 50-point mark.
CNI indicators ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 7 • Number 2 • February 2016
Expectations Indices* Diffusion indexes (0-100 points)
Activity level
New developments and services
Increase 50
Increase 50
Decrease
Decrease
40.6
43.2
42.4 38.1 39.8 37.7
MAR 2015
MAY
JUL
SEP
Activity level
NOV
JAN 2016
37.1
MAR 2015
MAR
Dividing line
MAY
SEP
NOV
New developments and services
Purchase of inputs and raw materials
Number of employees
Increase 50
Increase 50
Decrease
Decrease
42.0
JUL
39.3
JUL
SEP
Purchase of inputs and raw materials
NOV
JAN 2016
37.0
MAR 2015
MAR
Dividing line
MAY
JUL
SEP
Number of employees
* The indices range from 0 to 100 points. Figures above 50 points indicate growth expectations.
3
MAR
39.2
41.7
38.1
MAY
JAN 2016
Dividing line
36.3
MAR 2015
38.1
NOV
JAN 2016
Dividing line
38.5
MAR
CNI indicators ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 7 • Number 2 • February 2016
Investment intentions dwindling Investment intentions index*
In March, investment intentions hit an all-time low of 23.5 points in the series started in November 2013. While expectations are less pessimistic as compared to the previous month, a scenario of high idleness levels in the construction industry has hampered investment intentions, hence the continued decline in the investment intentions indicator.
Diffusion index (0-100 points)
60
55.2 50 40 30
25.9
20
23.5
10
NOV
FEB 2014
MAY
AUG
NOV
FEB 2015
MAY
AUG
NOV
FEB MAR 2016
* The index ranges from 0 to 100 points. The higher the index, the more likely industry is to invest.
Results by company size Monthly evolution of construction industry Operation Capacity Utilization (%)1
Activity Level2
Actual-Usual Activity Level3
Number of Employees2
Feb/15
Jan/16
Feb/16
Feb/15
Jan/16
Feb/16
Feb/15
Jan/16
Feb/16
Feb/15
Jan/16
Feb/16
60
56
56
36.6
33.6
35.2
33.2
26.5
25.3
36.4
33.8
35.5
SMALL
57
55
52
37.4
35.8
35.7
35.8
29.0
28.2
40.3
36.9
36.6
MEDIUM
57
55
54
37.2
33.2
36.7
31.2
25.9
26.0
37.2
34.2
37.4
LARGE
62
56
58
35.9
33.0
34.2
33.4
25.9
23.8
34.5
32.5
34.0
CONSTRUCTION
Expectations New Developments and Services4
Activity Level4
Purchases of Inputs and Raw Materials4
Investment intentions5
Number of Employees4
Mar/15
Feb/16
Mar/16
Mar/15
Feb/16
Mar/16
Mar/15
Feb/16
Mar/16
Mar/15
Feb/16
Mar/16
Mar/15
Feb/16
Mar/16
CONSTRUCTION
43.2
39.8
40.6
42.4
38.1
38.1
42.0
38.1
39.3
41.7
38.5
39.2
34.5
25.9
23.5
SMALL
45.8
42.5
41.5
45.0
40.4
38.7
44.8
40.1
38.4
43.9
40.5
41.0
37.3
25.0
24.0
MEDIUM
44.6
40.3
40.6
43.4
39.3
40.2
43.2
38.9
39.7
43.5
39.7
40.0
34.7
26.0
23.7
LARGE
41.4
38.5
40.3
40.8
36.5
36.7
40.2
36.9
39.4
39.9
37.1
38.1
33.4
26.2
23.2
1 The indicator varies in the 0%-100% interval. Series started in January 2012. 2 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate growth. 3 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate higherthan-usual activity levels.
i
4 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate positive expectations. 5 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. The higher the figure, the more entrepreneurs are likely to invest.
Learn more
Technical specifications
For more information about the survey, including historical series and methodology, please visit: www.cni.org.br/sondconstr
Sample profile: 593 enterprises, including 183 small, 267 medium and 143 large companies. Data collection period: March 1-10, 2016.
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY SURVEY | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Board - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flavio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Marcelo Souza Azevedo, Luis Fernando Melo Mendes (CBIC), Roxana Campos and Taryane Carvalho Perne | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic Design Supervision: Alisson Costa | Subscriptions: Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected]. This publication may be copied, provided that the source is mentioned.
