business confidence index
CNI Indicators ISSN 1676-2029 • Year 19 • Number 4 • April 2017
ICEI
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX Uptrend in confidence comes to a halt ICEI Thermometer
After growing for three consecutive months, the Business Confidence Index (ICEI) fell by 0.9 point in April on a month-over-month basis. As a result, the index dropped to 53.1 points, the same figure observed in February. Despite the decline, the index remained above the 50-point dividing line, meaning that entrepreneurs remain confident. Compared with April 2016, confidence increased significantly: up by 16.3 points.
Index (0-100 points)*
53.1 confidence
lack of confidence
54.0 (historical average)
Historical series Index (0-100 points)*
59.5 Confidence
historical average: 54.0
52.3
50.0
53.1 Apr/17
Lack of confidence
35.0 APR 2011
OCT
APR 2012
OCT
APR 2013
OCT
APR 2014
OCT
APR 2015
OCT
APR 2016
*Figures below 50 points indicate lack of business confidence. The further below 50 points, the greater and more widespread the lack of confidence.
OCT
APR 2017
ICEI - Business Confidence Index ISSN 1676-2029 • Year 19 • Number 4 • April 2017
ICEI components The decline in the ICEI is explained mainly by a slowdown in expectations, with the index dropping by 1.4 points, from 58 to 56.6 points. Notwithstanding the decline, the index remains above the 50-point mark, indicating that the outlook remains positive – even though optimism is more moderate than in March.
The current conditions index in turn fluctuated slightly: down by 0.3 points. The index remains below the 50-point dividing line, meaning that entrepreneurs still believe that current business conditions have worsened.
Current conditions index Index (0-100 points)*
Improvement 50.0 44.7 Worsening
40.7
41.2
DEC
JAN 2017
46.3
46.0
MAR
APR
28.0
APR 2016
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
FEB
* The current conditions index varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points values indicate a better situation.
Expectations index Index (0-100 points)*
Optimism
57.5
58.0
FEB
MAR
56.6
54.7 51.6 50.0
Pessimism
41.3
APR 2016
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN 2017
* The expectations index varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate optimistic expectations.
2
APR
ICEI - Business Confidence Index ISSN 1676-2029 • Year 19 • Number 4 • April 2017
ICEI Components APR16
MAR17
APR17
ICEI
36.8
54.0
53.1
Current conditions1 in relation to:
28.0
46.3
46.0
Brazilian economy
18.9
45.4
44.2
Company
32.7
46.7
47.0
41.3
58.0
56.6
Brazilian economy
32.0
54.6
52.5
Company
46.2
59.8
58.9
Expectations on: 2
Note: 1 - As compared to the last six months. 2 - For the next six months. The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate a better situation or optimistic expectations. The current conditions index for the Brazilian economy in February 2017 was revised.
ICEI – BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX APR16
MAR17
APR17
36.8
54.0
53.1
Construction
35.5
52.1
50.9
Mining and quarrying
39.9
53.4
54.5
Manufacturing
37.0
54.6
53.5
Small Enterprises
35.3
50.4
49.7
Medium Enterprises
35.6
53.1
51.6
Large Enterprises
38.2
56.2
55.4
ICEI
INDUSTRIAL SEGMENTS
BUSINESS SIZE
The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate that entrepreneurs are confident.
Technical specifications Sample profile: 2,952 enterprises, including 1,172 small, 1,106 medium and 674 large companies. Data collection period: April 3-17, 2017.
i
Learn more For more information on the survey, including sectoral and regional results and methodology, kindly visit: www.cni.org.br/e_icei
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX | English version of “ICEI - Índice de Confiança do Empresário Industrial, abril 2017” | Monthly publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Board - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Marcelo Souza Azevedo, Roxana Maria Rossy Campos and Taryane Carvalho Perne | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic Design Supervision: Carla Gadêlha | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected]. This publication may be copied, provided that the source is mentioned.
ICEI
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX Uptrend in confidence comes to a halt ICEI Thermometer
After growing for three consecutive months, the Business Confidence Index (ICEI) fell by 0.9 point in April on a month-over-month basis. As a result, the index dropped to 53.1 points, the same figure observed in February. Despite the decline, the index remained above the 50-point dividing line, meaning that entrepreneurs remain confident. Compared with April 2016, confidence increased significantly: up by 16.3 points.
Index (0-100 points)*
53.1 confidence
lack of confidence
54.0 (historical average)
Historical series Index (0-100 points)*
59.5 Confidence
historical average: 54.0
52.3
50.0
53.1 Apr/17
Lack of confidence
35.0 APR 2011
OCT
APR 2012
OCT
APR 2013
OCT
APR 2014
OCT
APR 2015
OCT
APR 2016
*Figures below 50 points indicate lack of business confidence. The further below 50 points, the greater and more widespread the lack of confidence.
OCT
APR 2017
ICEI - Business Confidence Index ISSN 1676-2029 • Year 19 • Number 4 • April 2017
ICEI components The decline in the ICEI is explained mainly by a slowdown in expectations, with the index dropping by 1.4 points, from 58 to 56.6 points. Notwithstanding the decline, the index remains above the 50-point mark, indicating that the outlook remains positive – even though optimism is more moderate than in March.
The current conditions index in turn fluctuated slightly: down by 0.3 points. The index remains below the 50-point dividing line, meaning that entrepreneurs still believe that current business conditions have worsened.
Current conditions index Index (0-100 points)*
Improvement 50.0 44.7 Worsening
40.7
41.2
DEC
JAN 2017
46.3
46.0
MAR
APR
28.0
APR 2016
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
FEB
* The current conditions index varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points values indicate a better situation.
Expectations index Index (0-100 points)*
Optimism
57.5
58.0
FEB
MAR
56.6
54.7 51.6 50.0
Pessimism
41.3
APR 2016
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN 2017
* The expectations index varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate optimistic expectations.
2
APR
ICEI - Business Confidence Index ISSN 1676-2029 • Year 19 • Number 4 • April 2017
ICEI Components APR16
MAR17
APR17
ICEI
36.8
54.0
53.1
Current conditions1 in relation to:
28.0
46.3
46.0
Brazilian economy
18.9
45.4
44.2
Company
32.7
46.7
47.0
41.3
58.0
56.6
Brazilian economy
32.0
54.6
52.5
Company
46.2
59.8
58.9
Expectations on: 2
Note: 1 - As compared to the last six months. 2 - For the next six months. The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate a better situation or optimistic expectations. The current conditions index for the Brazilian economy in February 2017 was revised.
ICEI – BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX APR16
MAR17
APR17
36.8
54.0
53.1
Construction
35.5
52.1
50.9
Mining and quarrying
39.9
53.4
54.5
Manufacturing
37.0
54.6
53.5
Small Enterprises
35.3
50.4
49.7
Medium Enterprises
35.6
53.1
51.6
Large Enterprises
38.2
56.2
55.4
ICEI
INDUSTRIAL SEGMENTS
BUSINESS SIZE
The indicators vary in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate that entrepreneurs are confident.
Technical specifications Sample profile: 2,952 enterprises, including 1,172 small, 1,106 medium and 674 large companies. Data collection period: April 3-17, 2017.
i
Learn more For more information on the survey, including sectoral and regional results and methodology, kindly visit: www.cni.org.br/e_icei
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX | English version of “ICEI - Índice de Confiança do Empresário Industrial, abril 2017” | Monthly publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www.cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Board - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC | Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Marcelo Souza Azevedo, Roxana Maria Rossy Campos and Taryane Carvalho Perne | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic Design Supervision: Carla Gadêlha | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 - email: [email protected]. This publication may be copied, provided that the source is mentioned.
