construction industry survey - Portal da Indústria
CNI indicators ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 7 • Number 5 • May 2016
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY SURVEY Activity falling at increasingly lower rate The outlook for the construction industry has become less negative. The indicators of activity levels and number of employees remain below the 50-point dividing line, but have been slowly approaching that mark, indicating a lower rate of decline. In addition, the expectations indicators point to a more positive outlook for the coming months.
All indices are up in June from May, sustaining the downward trend in the sector’s pessimism initiated in February. The investment intentions index experienced the first increase after three months, moving up from 23.2 points in May to 26.9 points in June.
Activity level index* Diffusion indices (0-100 points)
Increase 50 Decrease
40.1 37.5 36.4 35.2 33.3
33.6
DEC 2015
JAN
FEB
MAR 2016
*The index ranges from 0 to 100. Figures above 50 points indicate higher activity levels.
APR
MAY
Activity level indicator is up by 6.8 points in 2016.
Construcion industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 7 • Number 5 • May 2016
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE IN MAY 2016
Production and employment down at slower pace The month-on-month activity level indicator grew by 3.7 points in May as compared to April. The index is up by 6.8 points in the year. The indicator of number of employees shows a similar trend, as it rose by 2.4 points between April and May and by 5.1 points in the year. Despite the
growth, the indicators remain below 50 points, indicating a month-over-month decline in both activity and number of employees. The further below 50 points, the more significant and widespread the drop.
Actual-usual activity remains at low levels Notwithstanding the increase in the activity and employment indicators, activity in the construction industry remains significantly below usual levels
for the month. The indicator of actual-usual activity levels has held virtually steady at 26.5 points in recent months.
Index of actual-usual activity levels* Diffusion indices (0-100 points)
Higher 53.9 than usual 50 Lower than usual
26.5
DEC JUN DEC 2009 2010
JUN 2011
DEC
JUN DEC 2012
JUN 2013
DEC
JUN DEC 2014
JUN 2015
DEC
JUN 2016
*The index ranges from 0 to 100. Figures above 50 points indicate higher-than-usual activity levels.
Operating capacity utilization grows in May Operating capacity utilization is also up, though it still remains twelve percentage points below its average for the month. The indicator rose from 54% in April to 56% in May.
2
Construcion industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 7 • Number 5 • May 2016
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY’S EXPECTATIONS IN JUNE 2016
Construction entrepreneurs are less pessimistic The downward trend in the sector’s pessimism initiated in February has accelerated in June. The indices of expected activity levels and new developments and services grew by 4 points and 4.4 points, respectively, between May and June. On the same comparison basis, the indices of expected
purchases of inputs and raw materials and number of employees grew by 2.8 points and 3.9 points, respectively. The expectation indices range from 0 to 100 points, with readings below 50 indicating an expected decline.
Expectations Indices* Diffusion indexes (0-100 points)
Activity level
New developments and services
Increase 50
Increase 50
Decrease
Decrease
44,6
44.1
43.1
42.1
40.6 37.7
APR 2015
JUN
AUG
OUT
Activity level
DEC
37.7
FEB 2016
APR
JUN
APR 2015
Dividing line
JUN
AUG
OUT
DEC
FEB 2016
New developments and services
Purchases of inputs and raw materials
Number of employees
Increase 50
Increase 50
Decrease
Decrease
43.5
42.5
APR
Dividing line
42.3
42.6
39.7
38.4 37.0
36.3
APR 2015
JUN
AUG
OUT
DEC
Purchase of inputs and raw materials
FEB 2016
JUN
APR
JUN
APR 2015
Dividing line
JUN
AUG
OUT
Number of employees
* The indicators range from 0 to 100. Figures above 50 points indicate an expected increase.
3
DEC
FEB 2016
APR
Dividing line
JUN
Construcion industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 7 • Number 5 • May 2016
Investment intentions up after holding steady for three months Investment intentions*
Entrepreneurs seem to be more likely to invest, even though investment intentions remain at a very low level. After staying flat for three months, the investment intentions indicator edged up by 3.7 points from May to June.
Diffusion indices (0-100 points)
38
35.9 34
30
26.9 Jun/16
26
23.4 23.2
22
FEB 2015
APR
JUN
AUG
OCT
DEC
FEB 2016
APR
JUN
* The indicators range from 0 to 100. The higher the index, the higher the investment intentions.
Results by company size Monthly evolution of construction industry Operation Capacity Utilization (%)1
Activity Level2
Actual-Usual Activity Level3
Number of Employees2
May/15
Apr/16
May/16
May/15
Apr/16
May/16
May/15
Apr/16
May/16
May/15
Apr/16
May/16
61
54
56
37.7
36.4
40.1
30.7
26.4
26.5
36.6
35.7
38.1
SMALL
57
52
55
38.6
37.5
39.2
31.9
27.4
29.2
38.1
37.3
40.2
MEDIUM
59
54
56
36.5
37.4
39.2
29.6
26.0
27.0
34.9
35.9
36.7
LARGE
64
55
57
38.0
35.4
41.0
30.9
26.2
25.2
37.1
35.0
38.1
CONSTRUCTION
Expectations New Developments and Services4
Activity Level4
Purchases of Inputs and Raw Materials4
Investment intentions5
Number of Employees4
Jun/15
May/16
Jun/16
Jun/15
May/16
Jun/16
Jun/15
May/16
Jun/16
Jun/15
May/16
Jun/16
Jun/15
May/16
Jun/16
CONSTRUCTION
42.6
40.6
44.6
41.8
37.7
42.1
40.7
39.7
42.5
40.7
38.4
42.3
28.9
23.2
26.9
SMALL
43.9
44.2
44.3
43.4
41.3
42.2
41.8
41.1
41.6
41.1
41.0
42.2
31.0
21.3
23.8
MEDIUM
44.3
40.4
43.6
41.3
38.0
41.4
42.1
39.8
41.8
42.0
38.3
41.3
29.6
23.1
24.7
LARGE
41.1
39.3
45.2
41.5
36.2
42.5
39.5
39.1
43.3
39.9
37.5
42.9
27.8
23.9
29.2
1 The indicator varies in the 0%-100% interval. Series started in January 2012. 2 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate growth. 3 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate higherthan-usual activity levels.
i
4 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate positive expectations. 5 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. The higher the figure, the more entrepreneurs are likely to invest.
Learn more
Technical specifications
For more information on the survey, including historical series and methodology, kindly visit: www.cni.org.br/e_sondconstr
Sample profile: 577 enterprises, including 183 small, 260 medium and 134 large companies. Data collection period: June 1-13, 2016.
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY SURVEY | English version of “Sondagem Indústria da Construção - Maio/2016” | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www. cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Unit - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC| Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Flavia Coelho Branco Junqueira Ferraz e Luis Fernando Melo Mendes (CBIC), Roxana Campos e Taryane Carvalho Perne | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic design supervision: Alisson Costa | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 – email: [email protected] | This publication may be copied, provided that the source is mentioned.
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY SURVEY Activity falling at increasingly lower rate The outlook for the construction industry has become less negative. The indicators of activity levels and number of employees remain below the 50-point dividing line, but have been slowly approaching that mark, indicating a lower rate of decline. In addition, the expectations indicators point to a more positive outlook for the coming months.
All indices are up in June from May, sustaining the downward trend in the sector’s pessimism initiated in February. The investment intentions index experienced the first increase after three months, moving up from 23.2 points in May to 26.9 points in June.
Activity level index* Diffusion indices (0-100 points)
Increase 50 Decrease
40.1 37.5 36.4 35.2 33.3
33.6
DEC 2015
JAN
FEB
MAR 2016
*The index ranges from 0 to 100. Figures above 50 points indicate higher activity levels.
APR
MAY
Activity level indicator is up by 6.8 points in 2016.
Construcion industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 7 • Number 5 • May 2016
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE IN MAY 2016
Production and employment down at slower pace The month-on-month activity level indicator grew by 3.7 points in May as compared to April. The index is up by 6.8 points in the year. The indicator of number of employees shows a similar trend, as it rose by 2.4 points between April and May and by 5.1 points in the year. Despite the
growth, the indicators remain below 50 points, indicating a month-over-month decline in both activity and number of employees. The further below 50 points, the more significant and widespread the drop.
Actual-usual activity remains at low levels Notwithstanding the increase in the activity and employment indicators, activity in the construction industry remains significantly below usual levels
for the month. The indicator of actual-usual activity levels has held virtually steady at 26.5 points in recent months.
Index of actual-usual activity levels* Diffusion indices (0-100 points)
Higher 53.9 than usual 50 Lower than usual
26.5
DEC JUN DEC 2009 2010
JUN 2011
DEC
JUN DEC 2012
JUN 2013
DEC
JUN DEC 2014
JUN 2015
DEC
JUN 2016
*The index ranges from 0 to 100. Figures above 50 points indicate higher-than-usual activity levels.
Operating capacity utilization grows in May Operating capacity utilization is also up, though it still remains twelve percentage points below its average for the month. The indicator rose from 54% in April to 56% in May.
2
Construcion industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 7 • Number 5 • May 2016
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY’S EXPECTATIONS IN JUNE 2016
Construction entrepreneurs are less pessimistic The downward trend in the sector’s pessimism initiated in February has accelerated in June. The indices of expected activity levels and new developments and services grew by 4 points and 4.4 points, respectively, between May and June. On the same comparison basis, the indices of expected
purchases of inputs and raw materials and number of employees grew by 2.8 points and 3.9 points, respectively. The expectation indices range from 0 to 100 points, with readings below 50 indicating an expected decline.
Expectations Indices* Diffusion indexes (0-100 points)
Activity level
New developments and services
Increase 50
Increase 50
Decrease
Decrease
44,6
44.1
43.1
42.1
40.6 37.7
APR 2015
JUN
AUG
OUT
Activity level
DEC
37.7
FEB 2016
APR
JUN
APR 2015
Dividing line
JUN
AUG
OUT
DEC
FEB 2016
New developments and services
Purchases of inputs and raw materials
Number of employees
Increase 50
Increase 50
Decrease
Decrease
43.5
42.5
APR
Dividing line
42.3
42.6
39.7
38.4 37.0
36.3
APR 2015
JUN
AUG
OUT
DEC
Purchase of inputs and raw materials
FEB 2016
JUN
APR
JUN
APR 2015
Dividing line
JUN
AUG
OUT
Number of employees
* The indicators range from 0 to 100. Figures above 50 points indicate an expected increase.
3
DEC
FEB 2016
APR
Dividing line
JUN
Construcion industry survey ISSN 2317-7322 • Year 7 • Number 5 • May 2016
Investment intentions up after holding steady for three months Investment intentions*
Entrepreneurs seem to be more likely to invest, even though investment intentions remain at a very low level. After staying flat for three months, the investment intentions indicator edged up by 3.7 points from May to June.
Diffusion indices (0-100 points)
38
35.9 34
30
26.9 Jun/16
26
23.4 23.2
22
FEB 2015
APR
JUN
AUG
OCT
DEC
FEB 2016
APR
JUN
* The indicators range from 0 to 100. The higher the index, the higher the investment intentions.
Results by company size Monthly evolution of construction industry Operation Capacity Utilization (%)1
Activity Level2
Actual-Usual Activity Level3
Number of Employees2
May/15
Apr/16
May/16
May/15
Apr/16
May/16
May/15
Apr/16
May/16
May/15
Apr/16
May/16
61
54
56
37.7
36.4
40.1
30.7
26.4
26.5
36.6
35.7
38.1
SMALL
57
52
55
38.6
37.5
39.2
31.9
27.4
29.2
38.1
37.3
40.2
MEDIUM
59
54
56
36.5
37.4
39.2
29.6
26.0
27.0
34.9
35.9
36.7
LARGE
64
55
57
38.0
35.4
41.0
30.9
26.2
25.2
37.1
35.0
38.1
CONSTRUCTION
Expectations New Developments and Services4
Activity Level4
Purchases of Inputs and Raw Materials4
Investment intentions5
Number of Employees4
Jun/15
May/16
Jun/16
Jun/15
May/16
Jun/16
Jun/15
May/16
Jun/16
Jun/15
May/16
Jun/16
Jun/15
May/16
Jun/16
CONSTRUCTION
42.6
40.6
44.6
41.8
37.7
42.1
40.7
39.7
42.5
40.7
38.4
42.3
28.9
23.2
26.9
SMALL
43.9
44.2
44.3
43.4
41.3
42.2
41.8
41.1
41.6
41.1
41.0
42.2
31.0
21.3
23.8
MEDIUM
44.3
40.4
43.6
41.3
38.0
41.4
42.1
39.8
41.8
42.0
38.3
41.3
29.6
23.1
24.7
LARGE
41.1
39.3
45.2
41.5
36.2
42.5
39.5
39.1
43.3
39.9
37.5
42.9
27.8
23.9
29.2
1 The indicator varies in the 0%-100% interval. Series started in January 2012. 2 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate growth. 3 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate higherthan-usual activity levels.
i
4 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. Figures above 50 points indicate positive expectations. 5 The indicator varies in the 0-100 interval. The higher the figure, the more entrepreneurs are likely to invest.
Learn more
Technical specifications
For more information on the survey, including historical series and methodology, kindly visit: www.cni.org.br/e_sondconstr
Sample profile: 577 enterprises, including 183 small, 260 medium and 134 large companies. Data collection period: June 1-13, 2016.
CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY SURVEY | English version of “Sondagem Indústria da Construção - Maio/2016” | Monthly Publication of the National Confederation of Industry - CNI | www. cni.org.br | Policy and Strategy Unit - DIRPE | Economic Policy Unit - PEC| Executive manager: Flávio Castelo Branco | Research and Competitiveness Unit - GPC | Executive manager: Renato da Fonseca | Team: Flavia Coelho Branco Junqueira Ferraz e Luis Fernando Melo Mendes (CBIC), Roxana Campos e Taryane Carvalho Perne | CNI Publishing Center | Graphic design supervision: Alisson Costa | Customer Service - Phone: +55 (61) 3317-9992 – email: [email protected] | This publication may be copied, provided that the source is mentioned.
