Planalytics FlashWeather
LAST WEEK: April 5, 2015 – April 11, 2015 (Retail Week 10 / April Week 1) April Showers! A Wet Week Included Rain in the West and Severe Weather in the South. Record Warmth in Florida and a Weekend Warm Up in the East Drove Seasonal Purchasing. Canada Remained Cool.
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
PRECIPITATION (Inches) Period of Record: Apr 5 2015 to Apr 11 2015 2015
2014 Change Normal
9.9
68.0
St. Louis, MO
3.39
0.66
2.73
0.77
+3.0%
63.0
Grand Rapids, MI
2.82
0.10
2.72
0.81
9.6
60.4
Houston, TX
1.89
0.04
1.85
0.77
+2.0%
Atlanta, GA
68.4
58.8
Charlotte, NC
67.2
58.0
9.2
58.2
North Bend, OR
1.92
0.10
1.82
1.54
+1.0%
Columbia, SC
71.1
62.1
9.0
62.0
Tampa, FL
2.06
0.24
1.82
0.44
Boston, MA
+0.0%
41.0
52.0
-11.1
47.5
Charleston, SC
0.15
1.32
-1.17
0.78
Caribou, ME
25.9
37.5
-11.7
36.1
Fort Smith, AR
0.13
1.39
-1.26
0.89
Bakersfield, CA
59.0
71.9
-12.9
60.5
Jacksonville, FL
0.46
2.22
-1.76
0.79
Medford, OR
48.1
61.2
-13.1
51.0
Birmingham, AL
1.97
4.38
-2.41
1.00
Reno, NV
45.8
59.4
-13.6
49.5
Jackson, MS
0.58
6.06
-5.48
1.39
Canada Summary and Callouts
• Last year was warmer than normal with above normal rainfall but below normal snowfall. • A Chill in the Air. It was the coldest start to retail April since 2013, with most major markets trending colder than last year. Halifax was coldest since 1982, Quebec City since 1995, Montreal since 2007, and Toronto since 2009, weakening spring demand. Conversely, Edmonton had its warmest start to April since 2009. • Drier than LY, but Wetter than Normal. Rainfall was the least since 2012, although above normal. Vancouver was driest since 2004, Winnipeg since 2010, Edmonton since 2011, and Ottawa since 2012. Conversely, Quebec City had its wettest start to April since 2005. • Still Snowing. While significantly below normal, snowfall was the most since 2013, driven by eastern locations. Halifax had its most April week 1 snow since 1999; Montreal since 2007. MEAN TEMPERATURE (°C) Period of Record: Apr 5 2015 to Apr 11 2015 City
2015
PRECIPITATION (mm) Period of Record: Apr 5 2015 to Apr 11 2015
2014 Change Normal
City
2015
2014 Change Normal
Winnipeg
2.1
0.6
1.5
1.8
Toronto
34
23
10
15
Edmonton
3.1
2.6
0.5
1.9
Quebec City
37
31
6
19
Vancouver
8.4
10.3
-1.9
8.7
Calgary
4
3
2
6
Toronto
4.8
7.0
-2.3
5.6
Edmonton
1
1
0
7
Calgary
3.3
5.8
-2.5
3.4
Ottawa
24
27
-3
17
Ottawa
2.0
5.0
-3.0
4.4
Winnipeg
2
6
-4
6
Montreal
2.1
5.3
-3.3
4.8
Vancouver
2
6
-4
24
Quebec City
-2.1
2.1
-4.2
2.6
Montreal
22
35
-13
16
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
+2.4%+2.7% +2.2%
+2.2%
+0.6% +0.3%
-1.0%
-1.0%
-2.0% -2.3%
-3.0%
25-Apr
10.7
58.7
18-Apr
65.0
68.7
11-Apr
75.7
Jackson, MS
4-Apr
New Orleans, LA
Retail Foot Traffic WDD (Actuals for last 6 weeks. Outlook for next 2 weeks.)
City
28-Mar
2014 Change Normal
21-Mar
2015
7-Mar
City
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
14-Mar
MEAN TEMPERATURE (°F) Period of Record: Apr 5 2015 to Apr 11 2015
Compared to the Same Week Last Year
Temperature
• Weekend Review: Consumers in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast welcomed clear skies and seasonal temperatures all weekend long, taking advantage of the conditions to tend to their yards and participate in outdoor activities. The South Central, Gulf Coast, and Southeast regions endured wet conditions, limiting retail traffic. The rain spread across the Plains and Upper Midwest on Sunday. While much of the West was warm and dry, the Pacific Northwest dealt with rain and mountain snow on Saturday before clearing out on Sunday. • Last year the U.S. had the warmest first week of retail April since 2002, driven by record heat in the West. Rainfall was near normal while snowfall was well below normal. • Cooler, but not Cold. Last week was the coolest start to April since 2013, slightly colder than last year although warmer than normal. New England had its coolest week 1 of April since 2003 keeping spring demand light. Boston and NYC were coolest since 2007; Baltimore and Philadelphia were coolest since 2009. • Record Warmth in Florida. Warmth was focused across the South where the East South Central was warmest since 2001, West South Central since 2012, and South Atlantic since 2013 driving demand for spring apparel, cold beverages, and outdoor activities. Miami, Orlando, and Tampa each had their warmest start to April in over 55 years. Atlanta, Charlotte, Memphis, Nashville, and New Orleans were all warmest since 2001. • April Started With Showers. Rainfall was 19% above last year and 17% above normal, as spring showers moved across much of the country. The Pacific region was wettest since 2013, bringing some much needed rain to drought stricken areas. Elsewhere, Tampa had its wettest 1st week of April in over 55 years. St. Louis was wettest since 1979, Pittsburgh since 2000, Richmond since 2003, San Antonio and Houston since 2004, and Baltimore since 2006. Demand for rainwear, wiper blades, and umbrellas all increased. • Severe Weather Picked Up. There were over 500 severe weather reports last week. While the majority of the reports were for high winds and hail, over 30 tornadoes impacted the Midwest throughout the week. The most devastating was an EF-4 tornado in Illinois on Thursday. The widespread nature of severe weather drove demand for clean-up related categories.
Precipitation
U.S. Summary and Callouts
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category WDDs represent the % change in demand of the product/category, based purely on the year-over-year change in weather.
WIPER BLADES North America +6% Los Angeles +41% Minneapolis +18% Houston +11% Charlotte -9%
SHORT SLEEVE SHIRTS North America -1% Houston +6% Jacksonville +5% Montreal -10% San Francisco -23%
EXTERIOR PAINT North America -6% Atlanta +10% Dallas +2% Chicago -9% Boston -27%
SUNCARE North America -7% Orlando +12% Nashville +9% Seattle -6% New York City -13%
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
THIS WEEK: April 12, 2015 – April 18, 2015 (Retail Week 11 / April Week 2)
Spring is Springing! Warm Temps Overtake Much of North America, Boosting Demand for Seasonal Products. The West Stays Cooler than LY. Rain & Severe Weather Continue in the South.
• Spring Temperatures Take Center Stage. Very warm spring conditions will continue from the Plains to the East Coast. High temperatures will rise into the 70s and 80s across most of the region. Consumers in the Great Lakes and New England will experience temperatures in the 50s and 60s. Overall for the week, the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. will trend warmer to much warmer than last year and normal. Demand for spring apparel such as capris, t-shirts, sunglasses, and sandals will be strong. Conditions will also be favorable for outdoor activities such as running, biking, golfing, and grilling.
Temperature
• This week last year, the U.S had its coolest 2nd week of April since 2009 with above normal rainfall. Snowfall was well above normal driven by the East North Central and Northeast regions. Canada was the coolest since 2000, and the wettest since 1999. Note that this was also the run-up week to Easter.
Precipitation
This Week Outlook & Callouts
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
(Maps compare to the same week last year)
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category
• Cooler Temperatures Linger in the West. Most of the winter and early spring featured a warm West, while the East shivered. Now it's the Pacific Northwest and Inter-Mountain West that are cooler than last year. High temperatures will only climb into the 40s and 50s while lows will dip into the 20s and 30s. California and the Southwest will still be in the 70s and 80s, but these conditions will be slightly cooler than last year. • A Wet Week in the South. Rain and thunderstorms will stretch from the Desert Southwest to the Southeast Coast. Severe weather is possible early in the week. Flash flooding is likely in the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Rain will expand into the Northeast by the weekend. Demand for wiper blades, rainwear, and sump pumps will increase across these regions.
Sandals: +15%
Grass Seed: +12%
Bicycles: +9%
Capris (Canada): +24%
• Winter’s Last Gasp. Several storms will move ashore in the Pacific Northwest bringing with them rain and mountain snow. The Denver area is expected to see significant snow late week.
More Favorable Similar
• Canada Springs Into Action! All regions will trend warmer than last year and normal, with the exception of British Columbia. Scattered precipitation is expected throughout the week. Businesses can expect a surge in seasonal demand.
Less Favorable
NEXT WEEK: April 19, 2015 – April 25, 2015 (Retail Week 12 / April Week 3)
Mild Conditions Continue Across North America, Aiding Spring Demand. Cooler Temperatures to Last Year Focused in the Central U.S. More April Showers are Expected.
• Pleasant Spring Temperatures Continue. Temperatures will trend warmer than last year and slightly above normal for the East and West coasts. These conditions will support healthy demand for lawn care categories such as grass seed, fertilizers, and mowers. Expect demand for cold drinks and consumables to increase. • Cool in the Middle. The Great Plains and South Central regions will trend cooler than last year and slightly below normal throughout the week. Temperatures will average in the 50s and 60s across the Plains and low 70s throughout Texas. • Stormy Weather Persists in the South. The Southern Tier of the U.S. remains in the path of a persistent storm track. As rain lingers across the Deep South, flooding concerns continue to increase. • Canada Stays Warm. The majority of Canada will continue to experience warmer conditions to last year and normal, supporting demand for spring categories. Temperatures across British Columbia will trend slightly below last year and normal throughout the week. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
Precipitation
• Last year, the U.S was warmer than normal with warmth focused in the interior and East. Cooler temperatures shifted west with the Pacific region coolest since 2011. Rainfall was below normal, and focused in the West. Canada was cooler than normal; however, Toronto, Montreal, and Ottawa were warmest since 2010. Rainfall was above normal.
Temperature
Next Week Outlook & Callouts
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
(Maps compare to the same week last year)
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category Fans: +4%
Shorts (Canada): +7%
More Favorable Similar Less Favorable
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
PRECIPITATION (Inches) Period of Record: Apr 5 2015 to Apr 11 2015 2015
2014 Change Normal
9.9
68.0
St. Louis, MO
3.39
0.66
2.73
0.77
+3.0%
63.0
Grand Rapids, MI
2.82
0.10
2.72
0.81
9.6
60.4
Houston, TX
1.89
0.04
1.85
0.77
+2.0%
Atlanta, GA
68.4
58.8
Charlotte, NC
67.2
58.0
9.2
58.2
North Bend, OR
1.92
0.10
1.82
1.54
+1.0%
Columbia, SC
71.1
62.1
9.0
62.0
Tampa, FL
2.06
0.24
1.82
0.44
Boston, MA
+0.0%
41.0
52.0
-11.1
47.5
Charleston, SC
0.15
1.32
-1.17
0.78
Caribou, ME
25.9
37.5
-11.7
36.1
Fort Smith, AR
0.13
1.39
-1.26
0.89
Bakersfield, CA
59.0
71.9
-12.9
60.5
Jacksonville, FL
0.46
2.22
-1.76
0.79
Medford, OR
48.1
61.2
-13.1
51.0
Birmingham, AL
1.97
4.38
-2.41
1.00
Reno, NV
45.8
59.4
-13.6
49.5
Jackson, MS
0.58
6.06
-5.48
1.39
Canada Summary and Callouts
• Last year was warmer than normal with above normal rainfall but below normal snowfall. • A Chill in the Air. It was the coldest start to retail April since 2013, with most major markets trending colder than last year. Halifax was coldest since 1982, Quebec City since 1995, Montreal since 2007, and Toronto since 2009, weakening spring demand. Conversely, Edmonton had its warmest start to April since 2009. • Drier than LY, but Wetter than Normal. Rainfall was the least since 2012, although above normal. Vancouver was driest since 2004, Winnipeg since 2010, Edmonton since 2011, and Ottawa since 2012. Conversely, Quebec City had its wettest start to April since 2005. • Still Snowing. While significantly below normal, snowfall was the most since 2013, driven by eastern locations. Halifax had its most April week 1 snow since 1999; Montreal since 2007. MEAN TEMPERATURE (°C) Period of Record: Apr 5 2015 to Apr 11 2015 City
2015
PRECIPITATION (mm) Period of Record: Apr 5 2015 to Apr 11 2015
2014 Change Normal
City
2015
2014 Change Normal
Winnipeg
2.1
0.6
1.5
1.8
Toronto
34
23
10
15
Edmonton
3.1
2.6
0.5
1.9
Quebec City
37
31
6
19
Vancouver
8.4
10.3
-1.9
8.7
Calgary
4
3
2
6
Toronto
4.8
7.0
-2.3
5.6
Edmonton
1
1
0
7
Calgary
3.3
5.8
-2.5
3.4
Ottawa
24
27
-3
17
Ottawa
2.0
5.0
-3.0
4.4
Winnipeg
2
6
-4
6
Montreal
2.1
5.3
-3.3
4.8
Vancouver
2
6
-4
24
Quebec City
-2.1
2.1
-4.2
2.6
Montreal
22
35
-13
16
© 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
+2.4%+2.7% +2.2%
+2.2%
+0.6% +0.3%
-1.0%
-1.0%
-2.0% -2.3%
-3.0%
25-Apr
10.7
58.7
18-Apr
65.0
68.7
11-Apr
75.7
Jackson, MS
4-Apr
New Orleans, LA
Retail Foot Traffic WDD (Actuals for last 6 weeks. Outlook for next 2 weeks.)
City
28-Mar
2014 Change Normal
21-Mar
2015
7-Mar
City
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
14-Mar
MEAN TEMPERATURE (°F) Period of Record: Apr 5 2015 to Apr 11 2015
Compared to the Same Week Last Year
Temperature
• Weekend Review: Consumers in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast welcomed clear skies and seasonal temperatures all weekend long, taking advantage of the conditions to tend to their yards and participate in outdoor activities. The South Central, Gulf Coast, and Southeast regions endured wet conditions, limiting retail traffic. The rain spread across the Plains and Upper Midwest on Sunday. While much of the West was warm and dry, the Pacific Northwest dealt with rain and mountain snow on Saturday before clearing out on Sunday. • Last year the U.S. had the warmest first week of retail April since 2002, driven by record heat in the West. Rainfall was near normal while snowfall was well below normal. • Cooler, but not Cold. Last week was the coolest start to April since 2013, slightly colder than last year although warmer than normal. New England had its coolest week 1 of April since 2003 keeping spring demand light. Boston and NYC were coolest since 2007; Baltimore and Philadelphia were coolest since 2009. • Record Warmth in Florida. Warmth was focused across the South where the East South Central was warmest since 2001, West South Central since 2012, and South Atlantic since 2013 driving demand for spring apparel, cold beverages, and outdoor activities. Miami, Orlando, and Tampa each had their warmest start to April in over 55 years. Atlanta, Charlotte, Memphis, Nashville, and New Orleans were all warmest since 2001. • April Started With Showers. Rainfall was 19% above last year and 17% above normal, as spring showers moved across much of the country. The Pacific region was wettest since 2013, bringing some much needed rain to drought stricken areas. Elsewhere, Tampa had its wettest 1st week of April in over 55 years. St. Louis was wettest since 1979, Pittsburgh since 2000, Richmond since 2003, San Antonio and Houston since 2004, and Baltimore since 2006. Demand for rainwear, wiper blades, and umbrellas all increased. • Severe Weather Picked Up. There were over 500 severe weather reports last week. While the majority of the reports were for high winds and hail, over 30 tornadoes impacted the Midwest throughout the week. The most devastating was an EF-4 tornado in Illinois on Thursday. The widespread nature of severe weather drove demand for clean-up related categories.
Precipitation
U.S. Summary and Callouts
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category WDDs represent the % change in demand of the product/category, based purely on the year-over-year change in weather.
WIPER BLADES North America +6% Los Angeles +41% Minneapolis +18% Houston +11% Charlotte -9%
SHORT SLEEVE SHIRTS North America -1% Houston +6% Jacksonville +5% Montreal -10% San Francisco -23%
EXTERIOR PAINT North America -6% Atlanta +10% Dallas +2% Chicago -9% Boston -27%
SUNCARE North America -7% Orlando +12% Nashville +9% Seattle -6% New York City -13%
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
THIS WEEK: April 12, 2015 – April 18, 2015 (Retail Week 11 / April Week 2)
Spring is Springing! Warm Temps Overtake Much of North America, Boosting Demand for Seasonal Products. The West Stays Cooler than LY. Rain & Severe Weather Continue in the South.
• Spring Temperatures Take Center Stage. Very warm spring conditions will continue from the Plains to the East Coast. High temperatures will rise into the 70s and 80s across most of the region. Consumers in the Great Lakes and New England will experience temperatures in the 50s and 60s. Overall for the week, the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. will trend warmer to much warmer than last year and normal. Demand for spring apparel such as capris, t-shirts, sunglasses, and sandals will be strong. Conditions will also be favorable for outdoor activities such as running, biking, golfing, and grilling.
Temperature
• This week last year, the U.S had its coolest 2nd week of April since 2009 with above normal rainfall. Snowfall was well above normal driven by the East North Central and Northeast regions. Canada was the coolest since 2000, and the wettest since 1999. Note that this was also the run-up week to Easter.
Precipitation
This Week Outlook & Callouts
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
(Maps compare to the same week last year)
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category
• Cooler Temperatures Linger in the West. Most of the winter and early spring featured a warm West, while the East shivered. Now it's the Pacific Northwest and Inter-Mountain West that are cooler than last year. High temperatures will only climb into the 40s and 50s while lows will dip into the 20s and 30s. California and the Southwest will still be in the 70s and 80s, but these conditions will be slightly cooler than last year. • A Wet Week in the South. Rain and thunderstorms will stretch from the Desert Southwest to the Southeast Coast. Severe weather is possible early in the week. Flash flooding is likely in the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Rain will expand into the Northeast by the weekend. Demand for wiper blades, rainwear, and sump pumps will increase across these regions.
Sandals: +15%
Grass Seed: +12%
Bicycles: +9%
Capris (Canada): +24%
• Winter’s Last Gasp. Several storms will move ashore in the Pacific Northwest bringing with them rain and mountain snow. The Denver area is expected to see significant snow late week.
More Favorable Similar
• Canada Springs Into Action! All regions will trend warmer than last year and normal, with the exception of British Columbia. Scattered precipitation is expected throughout the week. Businesses can expect a surge in seasonal demand.
Less Favorable
NEXT WEEK: April 19, 2015 – April 25, 2015 (Retail Week 12 / April Week 3)
Mild Conditions Continue Across North America, Aiding Spring Demand. Cooler Temperatures to Last Year Focused in the Central U.S. More April Showers are Expected.
• Pleasant Spring Temperatures Continue. Temperatures will trend warmer than last year and slightly above normal for the East and West coasts. These conditions will support healthy demand for lawn care categories such as grass seed, fertilizers, and mowers. Expect demand for cold drinks and consumables to increase. • Cool in the Middle. The Great Plains and South Central regions will trend cooler than last year and slightly below normal throughout the week. Temperatures will average in the 50s and 60s across the Plains and low 70s throughout Texas. • Stormy Weather Persists in the South. The Southern Tier of the U.S. remains in the path of a persistent storm track. As rain lingers across the Deep South, flooding concerns continue to increase. • Canada Stays Warm. The majority of Canada will continue to experience warmer conditions to last year and normal, supporting demand for spring categories. Temperatures across British Columbia will trend slightly below last year and normal throughout the week. © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Much Warmer Warmer Similar Colder Much Colder
Precipitation
• Last year, the U.S was warmer than normal with warmth focused in the interior and East. Cooler temperatures shifted west with the Pacific region coolest since 2011. Rainfall was below normal, and focused in the West. Canada was cooler than normal; however, Toronto, Montreal, and Ottawa were warmest since 2010. Rainfall was above normal.
Temperature
Next Week Outlook & Callouts
Much Wetter Wetter Similar Drier Much Drier
(Maps compare to the same week last year)
Weather-Driven Demand (WDD) by Product Category Fans: +4%
Shorts (Canada): +7%
More Favorable Similar Less Favorable
www.planalytics.com · 800.882.5881
